Photo: AFP
Whoever wins the US presidential election on November 5, Thailand is prepared to engage with the new president. As a treaty ally and the first Asian country to recognize the US over two centuries ago, Thailand’s relationship with America has stood the test of time.
This enduring partnership has weathered many challenges, establishing a strong and pragmatic bond between the two countries.
If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the US will likely continue its current foreign policy in Southeast Asia, focusing on strengthening alliances and partnerships.
Harris would likely maintain commitments to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an initiative introduced to foster economic collaboration in response to the gap left by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Through the IPEF, the US would aim to bolster trade, investment, and economic integration with regional allies, a strategy Harris is expected to support.
Should Donald Trump emerge victorious, Thailand is equally prepared. During Trump’s previous term (2016–2020), US -Thai relations remained stable, largely thanks to Trump’s security team, which had substantial knowledge of Thailand and the surrounding region.
Trump's administration focused on reducing trade deficits, and Thailand responded by pledging to increase investment in the US and purchase more American goods.
Since then, both Thai-US. investment and trade have grown significantly.
Regarding China, both Harris and Trump are likely to take a firm stance. Under Biden, US policy toward China has aimed to curb Chinese influence in key areas, especially advanced technology and imports.
Trump has indicated he would impose even steeper tariffs on Chinese products, though this could ultimately backfire on American consumers.
Harris would likely face similar domestic pressure to protect the local economy, suggesting that US-China relations will remain competitive and cautious.
Thailand’s relations with the US and China will follow a similar pattern to the rest of the region.
No ASEAN member will choose to align fully with either superpower. Both are important sources of security and trade for the region.
Regional countries are striving to diversify their relationships, seeking new partners, markets, and a balance of power.
Thailand will continue its strategic alliance with the US in the Indo-Pacific region regardless of who wins.
However, the depth and character of this relationship may vary based on leadership in both nations. Under Trump, US -Thai ties strengthened even while Thailand was under military rule, while Biden’s approach has emphasized collaboration with democracies. Moving forward, these dynamics may shape how Thailand and the US interact.
In the coming years, US - Thai relations will likely adjust to the changing geopolitical landscape as global power shifts toward multipolarity.
For more than 40 years, Thailand has served as a key partner in US military cooperation, hosting the annual Cobra Gold exercises that promote regional security and interoperability.
However, as American power projection declines, these military exercises may evolve in scope and focus.
Across Southeast Asia, the US may increasingly look to allies such as Japan and Australia to help shoulder regional security responsibilities.
For Thailand, this means an ongoing but perhaps more balanced partnership as both countries adapt to new regional realities.
