US-based Fitch Ratings has ranked Thailand’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, according to Patchara Anuntasilpa, director of the Office of Public Debt Management.
Fitch forecasts that Thai economic growth will accelerate to 3.1% next year with an estimated 2.6% this year, thanks to continued tourism sector recovery to pre-COVID pandemic levels, driven by supportive policy initiatives, increased government spending, improvements in private consumption and strong macro-economic policies to cope with challenges.
Fitch predicts that the general government deficit (on a government finance statistics basis) will increase to 4.5% of GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2025, from an estimated 3.8% in FY 2024, which is higher than the average among its peers of 3.2%.
Fitch also forecasts that the gross general government debt will rise to 61.2% of GDP by FY 2026, from an estimated 58.3% of GDP in FY 2024, and it will remain so until FY 2028.
Fitch believes the risk from higher public debt is mitigated by the government’s access to deep domestic capital markets through the cycle and solid fiscal financing capacity. This is evident from the lower financing costs than those of many BBB category peers and the general government interest-to revenue ratio is estimated at 6% for FY 2024.
Fitch says Thailand’s external finances have been robust, despite post-pandemic economic under-performance relative to its regional neighbours. The agency forecasts a widening of the current account surplus, to 2.9% of GDP in FY 2025, from this year’s 2.1%, on continued service-balance recovery, and foreign-reserve buffers at roughly 7.4 months of current external payments. The BBB median of its peers is 5.6 months.
Fitch forecasts a net external creditor position of 36.9% and 43.0% of GDP respectively at the end of FY 2025, which is above the projected median for BBB and A category peers.
