Thai government should increase imports of agricultural products and consider purchasing aircraft from the United States, to help forestall the imposition of increased tariffs by the Trump administration.
Stanley Kang, former chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, said that, although Thailand and the United States have benefited from a long-standing trade relationship, the Thai government should adopt more effective strategies to counter potential threats.
President Trump is expected to announce a new list of countries subject to reciprocal tariffs, which could include Thailand, due to its trade surplus with the US, which has exceeded 1.6 trillion baht. According to Kang, Thailand is likely to be affected by tariffs, ranging from 10% to 15%, on its exports.
To minimise the impact, Kang recommended that Thailand engage in direct negotiations and communication with the US to avoid confrontation. He also urged the Thai government to act swiftly in addressing trade surplus concerns, to prevent significant losses if the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on Thai-made goods.
Meanwhile, Dr. Juthathip Jongwanich, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics of Thammasat University, warned that Thailand’s top-tier export products to the US market, such as electronics and electrical appliances, would be among the most affected, with many potentially facing tariffs exceeding 20%.
“The worst-case scenario is that the Trump administration imposes both unilateral trade restrictions and reciprocal tariffs, without engaging in bilateral negotiations. This could result in tariff rates on top-tier export products rising to as much as 25%, whereas most currently benefit from a 0% tariff,” she explained.
Thailand currently grants tariff exemptions to US companies manufacturing products within the country.
“What is interesting is whether Trump will actually impose tariffs on products manufactured by US companies in Thailand. For example, Seagate produces hard drives in Thailand and exports them to the US,” Dr. Juthathip noted.
Given the potentially strong repercussions of Trump’s trade policies, Dr. Juthathip also pointed out that Thailand’s economy could face turbulence, with the decline in exports possibly leading to a 0.7% contraction in GDP.
While Thailand’s economy recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in Q1 2025, the economic outlook remains of concern. According to CIMB Thai Research, GDP growth could decline to 2.3% in Q3 and Q4, if tariffs are imposed on Thai exports.
Dr. Juthathip suggested that the government increase imports of agricultural products and machinery, while implementing protective policies for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and farmers, as increased import volumes could pose risks to domestic producers.
The top priority in mitigating global uncertainties should be the strengthening of the domestic economy, she argued, adding that “the government needs to do more to invest in Thailand’s key future industries and to expedite all processes related to investment applications from foreign investors.”
President Trump has already imposed reciprocal tariffs on products imported from Canada, Mexico and China. His administration is expected to announce a new list of countries targeted by these trade measures on April 2nd.
By Franc Han Shih, Thai PBS World
