Growing public anger over scandals involving the Bhumjaithai Party has sparked speculation that Thailand is entering another period of political upheaval. However, analysts say predictions that the ruling party will be ousted from power barely six months into its tenure are premature.
The biggest scandal threatening Bhumjaithai concerns allegations of vote-rigging in the Senate election. The initial investigation implicated Prime Minister and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul and key party figures in an alleged plot to seize control of the Upper House.
However, the Election Commission (EC) dropped the charges after a key witness retracted their testimony just three days before the verdict, leaving just 77 suspects, including 26 sitting senators, in the dock.
Dr Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothaithammathirat Open University, says the EC ruling is now unlikely to disturb the political status quo.
“Nobody from Bhumjaithai is being taken to the Supreme Court for trial,” he said, noting that the senior party figures, including the PM, had narrowly avoided prosecution at the court’s Criminal Division for Political Officeholders.
Dr Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, agreed that the EC’s decision to drop charges was a reprieve for the PM and his party, but added that the case could still damage Bhumjaithai.
Big blow
On September 14, the EC voted to prosecute the 77 suspects on charges of colluding to fix the 2024 Senate election. The suspects include 26 incumbent senators and 36 voters. Bhumjaithai’s reputation is at stake because most senators are seen as aligned with the party and vote in its favour.
Before the Senate controversy, Bhumjaithai was embroiled in accusations of fraud surrounding civil service entrance exams.
Seeking to harness growing public frustration, political firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul threatened to return to the streets to oust the government.
The former yellow-shirt leader accused the Bhumjaithai-led administration of flouting the rule of law, branding it worse than the Thaksin Shinawatra government he helped topple in 2006. Sondhi’s protest movement was also instrumental in ousting Thaksin’s successor, Samak Sundaravej, two years later.
Still surviving
Dr Yutthaporn acknowledged pressure was growing against Bhumjaithai but said two factors indicate it will weather the political storm.
First, no Bhumjaithai Party executives or MPs have been charged in the Senate vote-rigging case. Second, no figure is capable of launching anti-government rallies on the scale witnessed in previous decades.
Two decades ago, Sondhi was a charismatic leader who successfully channelled public anger to bring down two governments, but age is catching up with him. Born on November 7, 1947, Sondhi turns 79 this year.
“He and his core supporters are ageing, and their movement has failed to connect with the younger generation,” Yutthaporn said, adding that independent watchdog iLaw and People’s Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu are more prominent voices speaking out against Bhumjaithai in the Senate case.
The People’s Party-led opposition plans to highlight the Senate scandal in its upcoming censure debate in Parliament, though Yutthaporn said its focus appears to be divided between Bhumjaithai and its key coalition partner, Pheu Thai.
“The Pheu Thai Party is reportedly being asked how it will vote on the Senate scandal,” the lecturer continued.
He predicted that if the opposition’s focus remains divided, it may fail to land decisive blows during the debate.
The opposition plans to file a no-confidence motion against the government later this month.
The damage is done
Though Yutthaporn is confident that Bhumjaithai will survive the scandal, he concedes that the party’s public image and political credibility have been heavily dented.
“Even if they avoided being dragged to court, their reputation is damaged,” he said.
Meanwhile, People’s Party MP Parit has vowed to keep up the pressure, promising to scrutinise the EC’s formal investigation report for signs it was intentionally skewed to let Bhumjaithai executives and MPs off the hook.
“If we detect such irregularities, we will sue the EC for dereliction of duty. The lawsuit will be filed under the Criminal Code’s Article 157 or Article 69 of the Organic Act on the Election Commission,” he said.
Under Article 69, even members of EC subcommittees can be held responsible for misdemeanours.
Stithorn added that the 77 suspects were likely to include key players in political networks, so digging deeper into their activities could uncover further political links.
Declining popularity and support
Until recently, Prime Minister Anutin enjoyed strong support from the conservative establishment, who saw his party’s hardline traditionalist stance as crucial to reining in the growing influence of the progressive camp.
However, the scandals that have marked his short premiership have prompted many prominent conservatives to reconsider their support.
Prof Borwornsak Uwanno, a Council of State member and deputy PM during the first Anutin administration, has publicly slammed the government for its failure to stamp out systemic corruption.
Prof Nakharin Mektrairat, a former Constitutional Court president, ruled out any imminent political upheavals but said frustration in political quarters was rising.
Dr Loy Chunpongtong, a renowned mathematician whose statistical analysis exposed irregularities in the Senate vote, noted that several conservatives have distanced themselves from Bhumjaithai. He attributed this shift to the party’s structural corruption, authoritarian governing style and moves to capture independent agencies.
“The turning point for right-wing politics came when several conservative factions stopped seeing the ‘blue regime’ as a protective shield, but more like ‘political poison’ that is slowly eating institutions and social order from within,” Dr Loy said.
Impact on the Senate
If the Supreme Court accepts the case filed by the EC, all 26 accused senators will likely be suspended pending final verdict. However, the Upper House will still have sufficient members to form a quorum and continue to function.
