As 2022 draws to a close, politicians and parties are busy preparing for a general election due sometime in the next few months.
Small parties are opting to merge as a survival strategy, after changes to the electoral system that are set to benefit larger parties with a strong support base. Some small parties have already merged in the hope of strengthening their support base while others are still in negotiations.
Plenty of MPs, meanwhile, have left their parties to join new ones despite automatically losing their seats in Parliament after resigning. Politicians in both the coalition and opposition camps have been party-hopping ahead of the election, although most MPs — at least 34 — have joined the coalition Bhumjaithai Party, which political analysts say has a strong chance of becoming part of the next government thanks to its calculated neutrality in the ongoing political conflict between conservatives and liberals.
Most of the defecting MPs came from the ruling Palang Pracharath Party.
Many of these MPs said their decision came after their parties refused to field them in their preferred constituencies, where they have a good chance of winning.
Countdown to 2023 election
The Election Commission has tentatively scheduled the national vote on May 7, as the House of Representatives is due to complete its four-year term on March 23.
However, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has the option of dissolving the House to trigger an early election. Many analysts are convinced that he will opt for House dissolution, albeit at a time close to the end of its term — possibly in late February or early March.
A later House dissolution would give more preparation time to the newly established Ruam Thai Sang Chart (United Thai Nation) Party, which is expected to nominate Gen Prayut as its PM candidate for the election.
A House dissolution would also mean MPs could defect from their current parties and join the pro-Prayut party up to 30 days before election day. They will have to join at least 90 days before the election if the House term is completed.
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Election preparations differ depending on the size and nature of each party. The larger well-established parties are fortifying their support base with new promises to voters while at the same time undermining their rivals with damaging allegations. Meanwhile, smaller and newer parties are considering mergers and other ways of gaining political advantage. Pundits view small parties’ merger tactics as a bid to gain a small foothold in Parliament, as they will be disadvantaged by changes to the voting system from the last poll.
The upcoming election will use two separate ballots, one to vote for constituency MPs and the other for party-list MPs, instead of the single-ballot system of 2019. Party-list votes will be divided by 100 to find 100 list MPs that will sit in the 500-member House of Representatives. The number of votes required to win a party-list MP seat is estimated at 300,000, compared with just 70,000 in the last election. Hence the difficulty for candidates of small parties seeking election.
Mergers in the making
The small Chart Pattana Party, which was set up in 2007 and won three seats in the 2019 election, has secured an unofficial merger with the two-year-old Kla Party whose leader, former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij, and other key figures joined the older party in October.
Their union under the Chart Pattana Kla banner is expected to boost their chances at the next election. Korn’s experience in government should bolster the party’s economic team while Chart Pattana’s patriarch Suwat Liptapanlop has a strong political base in the Northeast province of Nakhon Ratchasima.
Perhaps inspired by the Chart Pattana-Kla alliance, other small parties are also in talks to partner for the election. But the negotiations are neither quick nor easy.
The Thai Sang Thai Party is negotiating with Sarng Anakot Thai for a possible partnership. Both are new outfits — the former was founded in March last year while the latter was born in January this year after being renamed and rebranded from an inactive party registered in August 2018.
Both are led by famous political veterans — Thai Sang Thai by former public health minister Sudarat Keyuraphan and Sarng Anakot Thai by ex-finance minister and economic czar Somkid Jatusripitak.
The two parties have held several rounds of talks but so far failed to reach a deal satisfactory to both sides. The main points of contention reportedly involve key party posts, PM candidacy, and financial matters.
By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk
