2022 was likely the most challenging year in Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s political career, which began when he came to power via the military coup he led in May 2014.

After ruling unchallenged for almost five years by virtue of his absolute power as junta chief, General Prayut began to feel the political heat when he found himself head of a coalition government, with no extra-parliamentary powers, after the 2019 election.

In addition to frequent street protests against him and his government, he also faced opposition censure motions — one per year on average — and petitions filed with the Constitutional Court challenging his legitimacy as PM.

Five court cases since 2019

Since becoming prime minister, Prayut has faced a total of five court cases that threatened to unseat him.

The first one came as early as June 2019, shortly after both Houses of Parliament selected him as prime minister. At that time, opposition MPs challenged the legitimacy of Prayut’s status as prime minister.

A total of 110 opposition MPs from seven political parties petitioned the Constitutional Court to rule whether Prayut was prohibited from holding a Cabinet position under the charter.

The petitioners claimed Prayut’s status as prime minister was illegitimate because he was serving as head of the junta National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) at the time of his appointment. The Constitution bars “other officials of state” from becoming Cabinet members.

His toughest case was filed on August 24 this year, when opposition MPs asked the Constitutional Court to rule on whether Prayut had reached his constitutional eight-year limit as PM. The petition argued that his term was over since he came to power on August 24, 2014, following the coup three months earlier.

But there were two other possible starting points for Prayut’s term as prime minister: April 6, 2017, when the current Constitution came into force, and June 9, 2019, when he assumed the premiership following the election in March of that year.

The opposition and Prayut’s critics argued that the constitutional term limit was designed to prevent a monopoly of power. What mattered, they said, was the spirit of the Constitution, whose unprecedented term limit was intended to prevent any prime minister from entrenching themself in power.

Opponents of the August 24 deadline said the eight-year limit was not retroactive, meaning Prayut’s tenure should be counted from the time the current charter came into force.

Meanwhile, only the most ardent of Prayut’s supporters insisted the eight years should be counted from June 2019, when he was sworn in as prime minister under the new Constitution after being selected by Parliament and appointed by royal command.

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Rumors and conspiracy theories

One week before their ruling, Constitutional Court judges resolved to suspend the prime minister from duties by a narrow majority of 5 to 4. The ruling fuelled speculation that the court would find General Prayut had completed his term.

Both the court and other authorities involved appeared to be under political pressure, as observers predicted street protests if it ruled in Prayut’s favor. Opponents of Prayut also alleged an establishment conspiracy to keep him in power.

Some academics forecast “angry reactions” against such a ruling would lead to demonstrations in Bangkok.

At least three protest groups involved in large pro-democracy rallies in 2020 threatened to take to the streets should Prayut be allowed to stay on. However, that threat failed to materialize.

Toughest challenge yet

General Prayut managed to survive the first four cases against him via unanimous rulings by the court’s nine judges. But this year brought the fifth case, which differed.

On September 30, Prayut received his first split verdict, when judges ruled 6:3 that his eight-year term had not expired on August 24. The court ruled by majority that Prayut’s tenure began on April 6, 2017, when the current Constitution was promulgated and that his previous premiership did not apply under this charter.

The tenure-limit petition was the toughest legal challenge for Prayut so far, threatening his position as PM like no other.

But with politicians now focused on the upcoming general election, another legal challenge to Prayut’s legitimacy is unlikely during this term of Parliament.

The Election Commission has tentatively scheduled May 7 for the next national vote if the House of Representatives completes its four-year term on March 23. But as a House dissolution appears likely, many political analysts expect an earlier election date.

November provided some respite for Prayut as he hosted world leaders at the APEC Summit in Bangkok, basking in the limelight alongside China’s Xi Jinping, France’s Emmanuel Macron, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and others.

However, he heads into the New Year hampered by low popularity in public surveys and strong rumors he is poised to ditch the ruling Palang Pracharath Party and run for another term under the newly set up Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party. His stated aim is to remain as PM for two years after the next election.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk

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