Is Myanmar really serious about returning to the ASEAN family? The answer is “maybe or maybe not.” President Min Aung Hlaing wants ASEAN leaders to guess what his next moves will be. After all, he has successfully dragged his feet in implementing the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) for the past five years.
Following the election early this year, he seems to be getting serious, judging from his diplomatic moves over the past three months. He has been shuttling among capitals in ASEAN, India, Russia, Belarus, and China. Like a magician, he can produce unexpected moves—now you see them, now you do not.
Min Aung Hlaing's latest diplomatic moves suggest that his government begin to recognize the importance of improving ties with ASEAN and fulfilling the 5PC. ASEAN has been disappointed with Myanmar’s response to it 5PC. Singapore, the upcoming chair, has maintained that meaningful progress has yet to be made.
The most frequently asked question now is whether ASEAN should judge Myanmar solely on its failures or instead recognize the incremental steps that could generate further progress.
Positive signs from Naypyidaw have been evident. Granting permission for Aung San Suu Kyi to communicate with her son and to meet representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) were confidence-building gestures.
The recent visit by Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, as the ASEAN special envoy, was considered a positive development. She visited Taunggyi in Shan State, where she could assess humanitarian conditions and explore ways to expand assistance.
Lazaro is expected to build on this opening. Her planned further consultations with Myanmar's ethnic armed organizations, following an earlier meeting in Pattaya in July, are particularly important. A second meeting is expected to take place soon at an undisclosed location inside Thailand. This much-needed political dialogue will bring more stakeholders into the peace process.
Thailand has consistently argued that the Myanmar quagmire is not an isolated problem, as its internal turmoil directly impacts neighboring countries through border security issues, refugees, and illicit activities. Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has urged Naypyidaw to do more while pursuing a calibrated re-engagement. He is visiting Myanmar on Nov. 12 to hold talks with Myanmar officials over the latest spillover of fighting impacted on the Thai border and to review progress on the implementation of the 5PC.
In Singapore last week, Sihasak offered a candid assessment of ASEAN's own shortcomings. He lamented that discussions on Myanmar too often begin with reaffirming the 5PC and end with member states leaving everything to the annual rotating special envoy without providing clear guidance or an implementation strategy.
Sihasak also called for stronger leadership by the ASEAN chair and a more permanent troika arrangement involving the immediate past, current, and incoming chairs. These proposals could help ensure continuity and prevent the Myanmar issue from being reset every year.
In a related development, Myanmar recently set up an ASEAN Affairs Coordination Office, which held its inaugural meeting recently. Through this office, Naypyidaw sent a strong signal that it wants to engage with ASEAN as it prepares for more active involvement with the bloc.
Myanmar realizes that it faces a huge challenge when Singapore assumes the ASEAN chairmanship in 42 days. Singapore has made it clear that current Myanmar leaders cannot attend high-level ASEAN meetings without “meaningful progress” in implementing the 5PC.
Singapore has legitimate concerns due to ongoing violence inside Myanmar and is standing firm to protect the bloc’s credibility. ASEAN has been under strong pressure from dialogue partners to demonstrate its mettle and show that it can resolve its own intra-member issues.
However, Singapore’s reservations must not hamper wider engagement with Myanmar. The incoming chair can wait until Naypyidaw demonstrates tangible progress; in the meantime, technical, humanitarian, and diplomatic channels should remain open. ASEAN has scheduled an informal extended consultation on Myanmar ahead of its summit to assess the crisis.
Lazaro is scheduled to brief ASEAN foreign ministers on her latest humanitarian trip during this informal extended consultation ahead of the summit. At this juncture, Myanmar must make further concessions, reduce violence, facilitate humanitarian assistance, and engage in meaningful dialogue with democratic forces and ethnic armed organizations.
There is also a larger geopolitical consideration. As Sihasak warned, an isolated Myanmar is not good for the region. Prolonged exclusion risks creating more space for major-power competition. Geographically and strategically speaking, Myanmar is too important to be left outside regional diplomatic efforts.
Thailand's dual-track policy provides a more practical alternative: maintaining working ties with Naypyidaw while encouraging inclusive dialogue and humanitarian access. Bangkok has an important role to play due to its proximity and connections with Myanmar's various stakeholders.
Myanmar is knocking on ASEAN's door again. The bloc should not close it, but neither should it throw it wide open. Naypyidaw must show that it is genuinely committed to peace, reconciliation, and responsibility.
By Kavi Chongkittavorn
