Recent flood damage poses a greater financial strain on individual households than on overall gross domestic product (GDP), as affected families must absorb repair costs while grappling with elevated debt, according to Krungsri Research.
The research center highlighted that household debt stood at 85.2% of GDP in the second quarter. Meanwhile, total labor income contracted by 0.3% year-on-year during Q2, with freelance earnings shrinking 2%.
Reflecting widespread concern over living costs and flood impacts, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 52.1 in September from 53.2 in August.
Although the Cabinet approved an 11-billion-baht central budget to assist 1.5 million households across relief, recovery, and tax measures, private consumption momentum remains constrained.
However, Krungsri Research cautioned that momentum in private consumption remains constrained by several factors, particularly the 'payback effect' following the end of the 'Thai Chuay Thai Plus' scheme.
Globally, crude oil prices reached five-month highs amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and speculation over potential US policy shifts toward Iran following November’s mid-term elections.
However, potential peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US scheduled for mid-November may offer regional stability.
In Europe, fiscal risks remain elevated due to high borrowing and energy costs, alongside public protests against government austerity.
China's economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in Q2, though Beijing is expected to favor targeted support for high-tech industries over large-scale stimulus.
