With Thailand’s oldest political party facing collapse unless it finds a new leader to reverse its slumping popularity ahead of next year’s general election, Democrat insiders believe they have found a saviour.
Abhisit Vejjajiva has been named as the right man for the job, fuelling frenzied speculation among supporters of a possible comeback for the party’s former chief and ex-premier.
However, Abhisit has so far remained silent on whether he will seek the top post or even rejoin the party.
Former and current Democrat politicians have backed his return to rescue the party in a flurry of recent social media posts.
Former colleagues and supporters of Abhisit who had quit the party are now rejoining ahead of the party’s general meeting on October 18 to elect a new leader.
The meeting was called after Chalermchai Sri-on stepped down as Democrat chief on September 12, citing health problems. However, many observers speculate he quit to pave the way for Abhisit.
The Democrat Party, which will turn 80 next April, has suffered a steep decline in popularity in recent years, with its number of MPs falling from 159 in the 2011 general election to 53 in 2019 and just 25 in the national vote two years ago.
The crisis deepened after Chalermchai dragged the party into Srettha Thavisin’s coalition government, led by its longtime rival Pheu Thai, in August 2023.
The Democrats refused to quit the coalition even as a border dispute scandal engulfed Srettha’s successor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, earlier this year.
What he said
Abhisit was elected Democrat leader in 2005, serving for 14 years before stepping down following the party’s poor election performance in 2019. He quit in March that year after the party won barely half of the 100 seats it had targeted.
Three months later, he resigned as a list MP after the party’s executive board voted to join the coalition government led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who staged the 2014 military coup and ruled the country for almost five years.
Abhisit had vowed before the 2019 election that the Democrats would not back the coup leader’s bid for prime minister.
“I cannot enter Parliament and cast my vote for General Prayut Chan-o-cha. The social contract I made with the country takes priority over the party’s resolution,” he declared.
In December 2023, he quit the party after pulling out of the leadership race.
“I resign as a Democrat Party member, but I will not join any other party. My blood will run sky blue [the Democrat colour] until I die,” he said.
In July this year, Abhisit fuelled growing speculation that he would return as Democrat leader following Chalermchai’s resignation, saying, “You don’t need to ask me to return to the Democrat Party. If you can restore the party’s ideology, I will certainly go back.”
Man of the moment?
Democrat hopes are running high that Abhisit can turn the tide, though some analysts caution that the former leader — known as a man of integrity and principle — won’t be able to pull off a miracle in the short term.
The general election is expected around March or April next year, under an agreement between the ruling Bhumjaithai Party and the opposition People’s Party to dissolve the House of Representatives within four months of the Bhumjaithai-led coalition taking office.
The four-month deadline for Bhumjaithai’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul falls at the end of January, with an election typically held 45 to 60 days after dissolution.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said Abhisit should quickly clarify whether he will seek the Democrat leadership to give party supporters a clear picture of his intentions.
However, he doubts Abhisit can win back substantial support, saying the Democrats have strayed from their ideological roots by relying on local political dynasties, which has complicated efforts to reform the party.
“If Abhisit returns, he may be able to revive the party’s fortunes to some extent, but it’s doubtful he can restore its former status as a major political force,” Olarn said.
Youth appeal missing
He added that Abhisit and many prominent Democrats still uphold the party’s original ideology. However, these veteran figures are out of step with modern Thai politics, which needs younger mindsets to navigate fast-changing challenges.
The analyst said that in recent years the party had come under the sway of political families, making it little different from its rivals — even in the South, its traditional stronghold for decades.
“Today, political parties rely on the influence of political dynasties to win seats in Parliament,” Olarn said.
He suggested that Abhisit’s popularity among the urban middle class would be undermined by reliance on the patronage politics of powerful families.
Provincial clans could use Abhisit as a tool to retain their influence in the party, thwarting any attempts at reform, he added.
However, Olarn sees Abhisit as the only prominent candidate for the Democrat leadership, noting the lack of other strong contenders if he chooses not to run.
Yet even if Abhisit returns as leader, the Democrats will still need capable young technocrats and visionaries to strengthen the executive team, he said, citing the ruling Bhumjaithai Party’s success in rejuvenating its image by recruiting appealing new faces.
He recalled the excitement generated by the Democrat Party in the 1990s, when it attracted newcomers from all walks of life, saying, “That’s what the Democrats should do again.”
Big challenge ahead
Domination by political dynasties has also hampered the party’s efforts to attract younger generations through its “New Dem” and other revitalisation projects, Olarn said.
Among the many disillusioned New Dem members who left the party are Parit Wacharasindhu and Fuadi Pitsuwan, both of whom joined Move Forward, now called the People’s Party.
Olarn said the Democrats could widen their appeal by improving the reputations of their dynasty MPs. He cited Democrat veteran Satit Pitutacha as an example, saying the former Rayong MP had retained a positive image despite hailing from a local political clan.
He added that a clear announcement by Abhisit to contest the party leadership would boost the confidence of his former colleagues who still have faith in him. However, he cautioned that the influence of political dynasties would remain a “big challenge” for Abhisit if he returns as leader.
The Democrats should lay a new foundation for the future, he said, rather than aiming for short-term success. “They should focus on building a party that upholds progressive neo-conservative ideals to enable long-term recovery.”
He said the party would find it difficult even to match its 2023 performance in the next election, predicting it could win around 30 seats as a base to grow from in future polls.
Citing the party’s low public support in recent opinion polls, Olarn said it must “urgently undertake real change”.
To restore its status as a sustainable political institution, the party must break free from the grip of “money politics” that has come to dominate nearly all Thai political parties, he added.
