With Thailand playing a coordinating role, ASEAN is accelerating its diplomatic re-engagement with Myanmar despite mounting scepticism about the initiative achieving any breakthrough.
The defiant military regime in Myanmar continues to reject the regional bloc’s Five-Point Consensus while pressing ahead with its campaign against opposition forces.
Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa Lazaro, together with Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, and other ASEAN officials met with Myanmar Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe in Bangkok on July 12 to obtain the latest updates about the ongoing crisis in the civil war-torn country.
Cambodia, which is currently in a border conflict with Thailand, did not send a representative to the informal gathering of the group, and Malaysia was represented by Shamsul Azri Abu Bakar, the government’s chief secretary, in place of Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan.
On the following day in Pattaya, Lazaro, who is also ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar, and Sihasak met with representatives of the military-backed National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) to explore the government’s peace plan.
The two ministers subsequently held a stock-taking meeting with representatives of ethnic armed organizations from Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), Shin National Front (CNF), and New Mon State Party (NMSP).
Some of them, such as the RCSS/SSA and the NMSP, have already engaged with the NSPNC to launch a new round of peace negotiations, while the KNU and the KNPP expressed doubts about the military-sponsored peace process. They have placed their hopes on Thailand and ASEAN.
In April, Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing invited armed ethnic groups for talks within a framework of 100 days—ending July 31.
No compromise, no moral courage
Despite dispatching its Foreign Minister, Tin Maung Swe, to the meeting, Nay Pyi Daw showed no inclination to compromise.
Myanmar authorities had earlier rejected an ASEAN request for a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi. The 81-year-old Nobel Peace laureate has been under house arrest since the 2021 coup that toppled her government.
The Myanmar minister informed his ASEAN counterparts that she was in good health but provided no proof of the claim.
A few days before the Bangkok meeting, Myanmar’s military-controlled parliament had formally adopted a motion rejecting the Five-Point Consensus, a core instrument ASEAN had adopted in April 2021 to address the Myanmar crisis.
“Such a political gesture shows a profound lack of respect for Thailand’s goodwill and fails to acknowledge the value of its sincere efforts,” Thammasat University academic Fuadi Pitsuwan said in a Facebook post.
Thailand, as the coordinator of the regional event, should demonstrate moral courage and send a clear signal to the Myanmar government that the principles ASEAN had collectively agreed upon still matter and could not be disregarded without any response, he said.
In his critique of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Myanmar policy, former diplomat Pisan Manawapat accused the government of continuing the deferential diplomacy practiced by the junta-backed National Council for Peace and Order, which ruled Thailand after the 2014 coup. He believes their approach had weakened Thailand’s bargaining power.
Uphold the Five-Point Consensus
Instead of adopting a proactive strategy to safeguard Thailand’s national interests, the government had contributed to the gradual erosion of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus and undermined one of the region’s most important tools of leverage to address cross-border challenges, including cybercrime, narcotics trafficking and human rights abuses, he said.
Meanwhile, the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF), of which KNU, KIO, KNPP and CNF are members, stated on July 15 that they would not enter into talks with Min Aung Hlaing’s government unless the Five-Point Consensus was fully implemented. The environment was not yet conducive for formal negotiations, the statement said.
The foreign minister of Myanmar’s parallel National Unity Government, Zin Ma Aung, told Lazaro in a video conference on July 15 to emphasize that an effective implementation of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus to halt violence and release political prisoners must include a broad range of stakeholders.
Earlier, Lazaro reaffirmed that the Five-Point Consensus remained the basis of ASEAN’s engagement with all stakeholders, including the Myanmar government.
“The Five-Point Consensus has always been a basic document, as well as central to all discussions,” she told reporters at a joint press conference with Sihasak after the Bangkok meeting.
“With the stakeholders, as well as the Myanmar government, we’ve always used that and whether they reject it or not, we stand behind it, and I think ASEAN stands behind the Five-Point Consensus.”
No early harvest
Facing strong criticism domestically and within the region, Sihasak defended the initiative, saying these discussions were not a one-off exercise but an ongoing process requiring continued engagement. Thailand expects the dialogue to make tangible progress over time.
He revealed that ASEAN had requested that its special envoy be granted access to Aung San Suu Kyi during the envoy’s visit to Myanmar ahead of the ASEAN Summit scheduled for November this year.
Sihasak said no timeline had been decided at this stage. However, the ASEAN Summit in November is expected to serve as a key opportunity for member states to review the implementation of agreed decisions and discuss the way forward.
Sihasak spelled out ASEAN’s four key indicators to assess progress in Myanmar.
They are: expanding humanitarian access; reducing violence and minimizing its impact on civilians; sustaining the peace process by ensuring all stakeholders have the opportunity to engage in credible and inclusive dialogue; and fostering a political environment conducive to national reconciliation, including the release of political prisoners and positive developments regarding Aung San Suu Kyi.
Lazaro will be visiting the country to advance humanitarian efforts.
Dialogue and gunfire can’t go together
Former MP Kannavee Suebsang supported Thailand’s role as a peace facilitator but urged the building of trust before talks. He made it clear that gunfire should not sound louder than the dialogue.
Peace building is far more than simply convening a meeting or bringing all parties into the same room; rather, it is a step-by-step process in which the first step must be taken correctly, he said.
“Once trust is lost, it becomes exceedingly difficult for a peace process to move forward, he said.
Fighting continues across large parts of Myanmar, including in Shan, Karenni, Karen and Mon states and the Tanintharyi region, where civilians remain caught in the conflict. Many have been forced to seek refuge in Thailand, he said.
“If the sound of gunfire is louder than the voice of dialogue, efforts to bring the conflicting parties to the negotiating table cannot provide a solid foundation for a genuine peace process,” Kannavee said.
Thailand’s role as a peace facilitator in Myanmar must be firmly grounded in the principles of impartiality and neutrality, he said.
Facilitation does not mean giving one party greater access or influence than another, he said. It requires creating a process in which all parties feel they are heard on an equal footing, respected as legitimate stakeholders in the peace process, and confident that the facilitator has no hidden agenda.
