Conservative parties in pole position as Pheu Thai struggles to form coalition govt

Almost three months after the May 14 general election, Pheu Thai officially formed a new alliance with Bhumjaithai on Monday (August 7), and announced they are open to more political parties joining to form Thailand’s next government.

The new coalition emerged just days after Pheu Thai’s political divorce from the Move Forward Party, which won the largest number of seats in the election but failed to secure majority support from Parliament for its prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat.

Together, Pheu Thai (141 MPs) and Bhumjaithai (71) have 212 MPs – still about 40 votes short of a majority in the 500-MP House of Representatives. But that is certainly insufficient as the new coalition needs at least another 164 votes from the Lower Houses and the 250-member Senate to ensure that their PM candidate wins the required majority support (376 votes) from Parliament.

Pheu Thai’s previous alliance with Move Forward boasted 312 MPs, 100 more than the new coalition, but their PM candidate Pita obtained only 13 votes from the Senate.

 

‘Uncles’ still in the equation

The fate suffered by Move Forward’s alliance illustrates that votes from senators are necessary, as a PM candidate cannot expect support from parties outside of their coalition.

Hence, political analysts are convinced that the Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai alliance will not succeed in forming a new government unless it partners with either Palang Pracharath or United Thai Nation, or both parties.

United Thai Nation (36 MPs) and Palang Pracharath (40 MPs) are vehicles for caretaker Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and caretaker Deputy Premier Prawit Wongsuwan, respectively. Both retired Army generals are thought to have maintained influence over most of the 250 senators, whom they appointed while serving in the post-coup junta.

Prayut recently announced his retirement from politics and resigned from all his posts in United Thai Nation. But Prawit has retained his position as leader of Palang Pracharath.

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, agreed that the new alliance certainly would need to include either Palang Pracharath or United Thai Nation.

He said Pheu Thai wanted both parties to join the alliance but this would attract significant criticism from its supporters as the party had told voters it would not work with “the uncles’ parties” after the election, referring to both Prayut and Prawit.

 

Choice that must be made

Olarn says that if it had to choose, Pheu Thai would opt for United Thai Nation to join its coalition government with Bhumjaithai.

“If they take both parties, Pheu Thai will suffer a backlash from society and its supporters. And if Prawit asks for the PM’s seat, that will be even worse. But they have no choice. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai will have to choose between the two uncles,” the analyst said.

If it opts for United Thai Nation, Pheu Thai could claim that the party no longer includes Prayut – although his influence would still be visible, Olarn said. “He could persuade senators to vote for Pheu Thai.”

Apart from United Thai Nation, the Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai coalition could also include Chartthaipattana (10 MPs) and a large 19-MP faction of the badly-divided Democrat Party (25 MPs), which together would easily form a majority in the Lower House. And with senators under Prayut’s wings, the alliance’s PM candidate could secure majority votes from both Houses.

Olarn also warned that by excluding Prawit’s party from its coalition, the Pheu Thai-led government could face “a lot of challenges” from the bureaucratic mechanism under his shadow, in addition to tough scrutiny by Palang Pracharath MPs in opposition.

 

Conspiracy theory rejected

The analyst also dismissed a theory that Pheu Thai was simply duping senators to vote for its PM candidate by temporarily ditching Move Forward, which is described by many senators as a threat to the monarchy and national security.

According to the conspiracy theory, Pheu Thai is planning to invite Move Forward back into its fold after its PM candidate secures a majority of votes in Parliament.

Olarn pointed out that Pheu Thai statedly clearly when announcing its alliance with Bhumjaithai that it would not partner with Move Forward.

“But Move Forward may try to create mistrust among senators by giving confusing signals about the likelihood they will vote for Pheu Thai’s candidate,” he added.

 

Warning of ‘political bankruptcy’

Meanwhile, Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, expects Pheu Thai to favor Palang Pracharath over United Thai Nation, as the latter still has the reputation of being General Prayut’s proxy.

However, he said it was likely that Palang Pracharath MPs, minus Prawit, would initially vote for Pheu Thai’s PM candidate, although that would be insufficient to clinch a parliamentary majority.

“Palang Pracharath is a better choice for Pheu Thai, but criticism will be inevitable as Pheu Thai promised supporters it would not form a government with Palang Pracharath,” the analyst said.

Hence, he expects only Palang Pracharath MPs, and not Prawit, to back the Pheu Thai-led alliance. However, for him, such a “political farce” would further disillusion Pheu Thai supporters and could lead to the party becoming “politically bankrupt”.

 

Further delay for PM vote?

Both analysts agreed that a new prime minister is unlikely to be elected at the next parliamentary vote, expected to take place after August 16, when the Constitutional Court is scheduled to decide whether to accept a petition by the Ombudsman’s Office for a ruling on the legality of Parliament’s recent resolution rejecting Pita’s renomination.

They said that given the current political situation, in which senators’ voting decisions remain uncertain, Pheu Thai’s main PM candidate Srettha Thavisin is unlikely to get enough votes to secure the top job. Both analysts see a strong chance of the premiership falling into the hands of the election’s third-placed party, Bhumjaithai, or even the fourth-placed Palang Pracharath.

Olarn sees only a slim chance of Srettha winning the PM’s seat. Apart from his lack of political charisma and popularity among political colleagues, the property tycoon-turned-politician is a poor choice to serve as a proxy of Pheu Thai’s patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra, the analyst said.

“Srettha is like Samak [Sundaravej, a former prime minister who was described as Thaksin’s proxy]. Thaksin is unlikely to be able to control him,” Olarn said.

He pointed to Pheu Thai’s other PM candidate, Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn, as a better choice as the fugitive ex-premier’s proxy.

Yuthaporn said he sees a good chance of Prawit becoming the next prime minister, adding that his patience may eventually bear fruit.

“The destination is approaching. I think Prawit should be able to wait,” the analyst said.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk