The conservatives and the People’s Party will keep pushing through the bumpy road. The Pheu Thai Party, on the other hand, will sit on the fence and see which way the wind blows.
How things have transpired this week regarding proposed constitutional amendment will keep people with the greatest stakes on edge.
The People’s Party, which apparently has suffered a setback, and its conservative rivals will likely have to fight each other in an early public referendum war. The Constitutional Court’s earlier ruling is paving the way for that potential battle.
That ruling, a major cause of chaotic parliamentary disruptions this week, demands a public referendum on whether there should be a new charter.
Even if MPs and senators, currently badly-divided, manage to come together in the end to say that there is no need for such an early referendum, there will be petitions, complaints and uproars, and the Constitutional Court will eventually get involved again.
As far as Pheu Thai is concerned, it does not matter much, at least for now, if Thailand should have a new Constitution. On the contrary, a new Constitution could even boost its greatest rival at the moment, the People’s Party.
But, as a proclaimed advocate of charter amendment, Pheu Thai, actually, can wait and see what to do. If it really needs to campaign actively for a “Yes (we need a new Constitution)” referendum vote, it will. That would pacify its support base especially those who are suspecting that the ruling party is not taking its charter promises seriously.
Is Pheu Thai pretending? Different people will have different opinions, but truth is that, for all its past criticism of the present charter, the party is the coalition government’s leader now, ruling under the highest law of the land it used to decry. There is no need to die trying.
Maybe “play along with the People’s Party” is better than “pretend”. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s Thursday comment is a telltale. Yes, we want charter amendment. No, we won’t touch Chapter 1 (General descriptions of Thailand’s political system) and Chapter 2 (the monarchy).
To read between the lines, Pheu Thai will cooperate with the People’s Party as long as it does not touch Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. It’s a condition that may not be a big issue today, but it definitely will be.
The conservatives flexed their muscles this week. The Bhumjaithai Party said it was staying away temporarily because an immediate parliamentary go-ahead could breach the Constitutional Court’s ruling. News reports have also mentioned senators’ disagreement with having a new charter written without asking the public first.
So, among the three camps _ the conservatives, the People’s Party, and the Pheu Thai Party _ it’s obvious who has the biggest room for flexibility regarding how and how much the charter can be changed. The first two won’t budge. Pheu Thai can flip-flop.
Pheu Thai has seemed to side with the conservatives this week. While the party voted for urgent consideration of a motion that favoured a primary referendum, it told the public it was just being careful.
The motion had been submitted by a group of about 40 MPs and senators led by Senator Premsak Piayura, seeking a Constitutional Court ruling on whether a referendum should be held before the charter can be actually amended or largely rewritten.
A total of 275 senators and MPs disagreed with urgently considering Premsak’s motion, against 247 who were in favour of debating the motion ahead of the full debate on charter amendment bills. It was almost a divide down the middle, and that was just over whether Premsak’s motion should be moved up the parliamentary agenda, not how the charter should be amended and by how much.
As expected, most of the People’s party MPs voted against moving up Premsak’s motion, while all Pheu Thai MPs, except 12, voted in favour. Twenty MPs from the United Thai Nation voted along with the Pheu Thai MPs, but 16 abstained. Sixteen Democrats also voted along the line of Pheu Thai party, while nine abstained. All the Prachachart MPs, except Wan and another MP, voted along the Pheu Thai line.
All Bhumjaithai MPs had walked out, except one, who voted in support of considering the motion anyway. Among the conservatives, the Bhumjaithai Party, hot on the heels of an impressive Provincial Administrative Organisation electoral showing, took the lead and came across as the frontline resistance against extreme charter amendment.
Noticeably, 136 senators voted against debating Premsak’s motion.
But that was just the beginning of a snowballing chaos. The debate on the two proposed charter amendment bills submitted by Pheu Thai and People’s Party was yet to commence when the joint parliamentary meeting was adjourned due to massive boycotts leading to a lack of quorum. Pheu Thai’s big guns were not too concerned afterwards, leaving the People’s Party to lament about the delay.
Another quorum collapse took place today (Friday, February 14).
Pheu Thai leaders gave the same message: We are not backtracking, but if the path in front is too risky (the danger of defying the Constitutional Court), it would be foolish to keep walking forward.
That was a message to the People’s Party but the conservatives should also take note. What Pheu Thai has left unsaid is that even if “only fools” will keep walking forward, we and the People’s Party together can make very powerful fools.
