It is always likely to start like when he launched his campaign against then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra some two decades ago, in other words with small gatherings and virtual political sermons before they were exponentially upscaled.
Yet while the “old Sondhi”, literally and figuratively, may be reopening his normal political strategy textbook, the Thai politics at the moment is anything but normal. It is at a stage that nobody is familiar with _ highly fluid, highly unorthodox and highly unpredictable.
Sondhi Limthongkul’s first anti-Thaksin campaign took place when both sides of the dividing line were clear-cut, with admirers on one half and haters on the other. No “conservative” was in the government. The parliamentary opposition was not the military’s critic. The media were never ambivalent ideologically.
As far as Sondhi’s new anti-government plan is concerned, the only familiar thing is Thaksin. As for the rest, how should we begin?
Let’s start with the “Thaksin government” of today. An administration headed by his daughter is crawling with conservatives. The opposition? The People’s Party is the military’s biggest critic, so Sondhi cannot expect any morale, let alone logistic, support from neither side of the aisle.
The media? Their stances are equally mixed up.
The People’s Party has announced it is having nothing to do with Sondhi’s anti-government agenda, vowing as usual to scrutinise or remove the administration through parliamentary channels only.
“We have no intention to whip up political movements outside Parliament,” the Bangkok Post this week quoted PP spokesman Parit Watcharasindhu as saying. “We are determined to work within the system to keep the government in check and push for changes.”
The People’s Party’s quick response to claims that it would tacitly help Sondhi was understandable. Facilitating or supporting street protests that could lead to military intervention would make the popular camp a hypocrite.
Without support from the People’s Party and with many conservative forces likely to keep distances, Sondhi’s challenge is huge.
Like when he started out at the Lumpini park during the height of Thaksin’s political power, he will need to be assisted by politicians in terms of mobilization of protesters, so that a political “picnic” can gather steam and morph into a massive congregation to be reckoned with.
The question is who is going to help him now. The People’s Party does not want to be seen as getting involved, many of the conservatives are in the government, and the Democrat Party is not what it once was.
Sondhi has his own sizeable fan club, of course, but many of its members are getting old and thus will find prolonged protests very inconvenient.
In relative oblivion over the years, Sondhi has managed to rebuild his clout, at least partly, thanks to the “Lawyer Tam” tumult.
There are also issues that hardcore conservatives are not happy with, in addition to the fact that he is finding an unlikely ally in former Red Shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan.
The latter is sounding more anti-Thaksin than Sondhi and appearing more conservative than many conservatives. While this makes Jatuporn’s leadership during the 2010 Red Shirt uprising very puzzling, a possible Sondhi-Jatuporn tag team is worrisome if not extremely formidable.
The likelihood of a new Sondhi campaign catching fire, however, depends on several more factors. Even Sondhi has sent out mixed messages himself.
While his saying that it will be “one last time” suggests he will go for broke definitely, he seems to be keeping his options open with other remarks, like “wait and see (before making big decisions)”.
It is limited to university talk show at the moment, which can be reminiscent of the Lumpini evening when everyone came to cheer in an easy-going atmosphere.
He certainly knows the complicated situation. Like everyone in Thailand, he’s walking an ideological tightrope.
The following is just part of the messy picture: Nuttawut Saikuar, who fought alongside Jatuporn during the Red Shirt uprising and is serving in an advisory position in the Paetongtarn government, is lashing out at the latter more and more, yet he (Nuttawut) is more worried about the People’s Party, Pheu Thai’s former ally. The People’s Party, meanwhile, has assured Pheu Thai that the worry was unfounded.
Although the People’s Party has made it publicly clear that it will not “seek” political power unparliamentarily, it has never stated unambiguously that it will never “accept” such power.
For example, if the power is on offer thanks to “weaponization” of justice against Pheu Thai, what would the People’s Party do?
That’s the politics that Sondhi is facing. Some “conservatives” may not like his campaign, but some “liberals” may do, silently at least, and while other “conservatives” may secretly approve of what he does, other “liberals” may choose to stay away from it entirely.
“There’s only one truth” is Sondhi’s proclaimed motto. Problem is every group mentioned above has its own version of truth, which is different from the others’.
Sondhi can fight for his own version, but he will have to do so under a hair-splitting atmosphere that even he could not have anticipated 20 years ago.
