Voter opinion surveys conducted ahead of the February 8 general election suggest Thais will be more calculated in their choices at the ballot box this time around.
“It seems people are now less likely to let emotions rule their voting decisions,” said Noppadon Kannika, founder of Super Poll. “According to surveys, voters are showing greater interest in what candidates and political parties have to offer.”
Noppadon argued that vote-buying would be less effective at this election, saying that people would take the money but still vote according to their calculated interests.
“Vote-buying will no longer be a means of controlling the result,” he said.
He cited major shifts in voter opinion recorded by several election surveys.
As one example, he pointed to the absence of sudden spikes in support for a particular party in a single constituency – a telltale sign of vote-buying.
“This time, support for candidates and parties has been rising steadily as the percentage of undecided voters dwindles. Plus, rising support for certain parties is spread across a wider area, not confined to just a small territory,” he added.
Noppadon concluded that Thai politics is now transitioning from a purely transactional process to one based more on voters evaluating what parties have to offer.
Voters are looking for stability, strong vision, dignity and justice when making their decisions, he said. They are no longer willing to exchange their vote for short-term personal benefits.
Pornpan Buathong, head of Suan Dusit Poll, agreed that voters’ sentiments have shifted since the 2023 general election, when the political landscape was highly polarised.
“People are no longer fussing over ‘left’ or ‘right’, but focusing more on the country’s situation, especially its economy,” she said.
Different voters, different generations
Thailand has about 52.9 million eligible voters, according to the Election Commission. Gen Z (aged 18-29) accounts for 8 million, Gens Y and X (between 31 and 60) roughly 30 million, Baby Boomers (61 to 80) just over 11 million, and the so-called Silent Generation (80 and above) around 2 million.
Pornpan said Gen X and Y are expected to have the biggest influence on the election, since they account for more than 58% of eligible voters and are more likely to exercise their voting rights than Gen Z voters. Statistics show turnout is historically highest among Gen X, she added.
“Polls show that Pheu Thai is still the favourite among Gen X voters, who appear to be impressed by the party’s past performance,” Pornpan said.
In contrast, the reformist People’s Party has managed to woo barely 10% of Gen X voters, she said. Younger Gen Y and Z voters remain the backbone of the party’s support, according to polls.
“Interestingly, we found Baby Boomer support for the People’s Party has risen slightly, even though this generation traditionally remains loyal to their favourite parties or politicians,” Pornpan said.
“Some voters in their 60s have decided to support the People’s Party in the hope that the structural changes it has promised will eradicate many of Thailand’s persistent problems,” she added.
Different generations, different needs
Pornpan said 52% of participants in a recent survey said they will cast their vote based on election policies, with most Gen Y and X voters identifying the economy as their biggest concern.
The survey showed that the Bhumjaithai Party is popular among voters in their 50s, who said they were satisfied with its performance as government coalition leader.
Many respondents were also impressed by the coalition’s Khon La Khrueng Plus (Half-Half Plus) co-payment scheme, as well as its choice of experienced corporate executive Suphajee Suthumpun as commerce minister.
“Growing support for Bhumjaithai is coming from supporters of political allies like the United Thai Nation Party and former coup leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha,” Pornpan added.
Generation Z, meanwhile, is more focused on the future, she said. Young voters are less likely to be loyal to a specific party, instead making decisions based on their assessment of what politicians can do for their own futures and that of the country.
Meanwhile the Democrat Party still holds some sway in its southern stronghold, with more than 25% of respondents saying that they would vote for its party-list candidates there.
“However, many voters in the South said they would choose a constituency candidate from another party,” she said.
What voters say
Jay, a 55-year-old voter from Phitsanulok, said she had voted for several different political parties – including the Democrats, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation– in past elections.
“But this time I will go for Bhumjaithai because I admire Suphajee,” she said. “I also like Bhumjaithai for recruiting capable people to its Cabinet instead of just distributing portfolios based on MP-seat quotas.”
Suphajee spent decades in senior roles at IBM and then as CEO of Dusit International, before taking the Commerce Ministry helm in late 2025.
As minister, she introduced short- and medium-term policies to boost trade and exports, as well as to support SMEs and protect domestic businesses.
Jay said she would not vote for the Democrats this time because the party had not made any tangible improvement to the country when it was in power.
Charn, a 61-year-old Bangkokian, said he would vote for Bhumjaithai in the party-list election but still hasn’t decided on a constituency candidate.
“I think I will go for a Bhumjaithai or Democrat candidate based on who has the greater chance of winning. That way, my vote won’t be wasted,” he said.
Nok, 58, a self-declared Pheu Thai fan, said she would vote for the People’s Party this time because “it deserved an opportunity to run the country”.
“Other parties given the same chance have failed to reform the political and bureaucratic structure,” she said.
Nantapob, 19, a first-time voter, said he would mark his ballot for the People’s Party in both the party-list and constituency votes because it represented the new generation.
“I would have gone for the New Alternative Party, because I’m interested in astronomy and it has promised to build spacecraft to send to the moon. But I know this was more of a joke because a moonshot is impossible given the current state of the country,” he said.
