A recent projection by NIDA Poll indicates that the Bhumjaithai party is set to win the largest number of parliamentary seats in the upcoming general election, with an estimated 140–150 seats, placing it ahead of all other parties.
The People’s party is projected to come second, with a total of 120–130 seats, followed by the Pheu Thai party with 80–90 seats.
The Kla Tham and the Democrat parties are each forecast to win about 40 seats, potentially positioning them as key political power brokers in post-election negotiations.
Laughing off the NIDA Poll forecast, the prime minister, who was in Nakhon Phanom today campaigning for his party’s candidates, said the projection was unrealistically low, adding that the party is aiming for more than 150 seats in the House of Representatives.
He declined to answer when asked whether the party would be able to lead the formation of a new government if it wins only 150 House seats, but vowed that the party would mobilise all available resources and do its utmost to win as many seats as possible.
He went on to say that his party would not negotiate with any other party to avoid competing in the same constituencies and would contest all constituencies nationwide.
Suvicha Pouaree, director of the NIDA Poll Centre, explained that the latest survey shows Bhumjaithai now leading nationwide in overall support.
The People’s party continues to lead in party-list votes at around 30%, a figure expected to decline slightly, to about 29%, during the actual election period.
Suvicha noted that support for People’s party constituency candidates has declined in several provinces, from more than 40% to around 30%, resulting in the projected total of 120–130 seats.
Suvicha added that traditional political rhetoric is losing its effectiveness and warned that efforts to capitalise on pro-military sentiment could complicate the People’s party’s campaign, particularly regarding its military reform policies.
He also noted speculation that Pita Limjaroenrat may return to the campaign trail in the final stretch, to help regain young voters.
He cautioned, however, that if the People’s party fails to secure first place, it is likely to end up in opposition. Even if it does emerge as the most popular party, forming a government could still prove difficult without a sufficiently strong mandate.
