Analysts predict Bangkok is set for another orange sweep on Sunday, with voters expected to hand the reformist People’s Party a repeat of the landslide it achieved as Move Forward in 2023.
“It will be the biggest party in Bangkok once again, though it will not be the only winner,” said Suvicha Pouaree of NIDA poll.
With 33 constituency seats at stake – the largest number of any city – the capital will play an outsize role in the February 8 general election.
And while the Election Commission bars the release of opinion surveys and party popularity ratings in the week before the vote, pundits remain confident the orange party will retain its grip on Bangkok.
Although voters are expected to turn out in large numbers across the country, attention will be focused on Bangkok, known for its informed and pragmatic electorate.
No party has ever succeeded in securing every constituency in the capital, with Move Forward coming the closest to a shutout in 2023.
Bangkok’s political fervour
In 1992, Bangkokians delivered a landslide victory to Maj-General Chamlong Srimuang’s Palang Dharma Party, which won 32 of 35 seats on the back of Chamlong’s reputation as an honest, hardworking governor of the capital, a role he served from 1985 to 1992.
Between 2001 and 2005, Bangkok voters swung behind Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai Party – the original incarnation of Pheu Thai.
Thaksin was seen as a savvy new-generation businessman whose party policies drove economic growth while expanding welfare for the poor. After four years in government, Thai Rak Thai secured 32 of Bangkok’s 37 seats at the 2005 election.
After Thai Rak Thai was ousted in the 2006 military coup and then dissolved, the Democrat Party emerged as the preferred choice among Bangkok’s middle class, winning 27 seats in 2007 and 23 in 2011.
After the military toppled the government of Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014, elections were suspended for five years.
When they resumed in 2019, nationalist messaging boosted the profile of coup leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha, and Bangkok voters awarded his Palang Pracharath Party 12 of the capital’s 30 seats. The People’s Party’s predecessor, Future Forward, tied with Pheu Thai on nine seats apiece.
Established parties were caught off guard on May 14, 2023, when Move Forward captured 32 of Bangkok’s 33 seats after campaigning on a liberal, new-generation platform that resonated strongly with urban voters.
However, pundits say its rivals have learned lessons from that shock sweep.
“Now, other political parties are better prepared,” said Pornpan Buathong, director of Suan Dusit Poll, adding that better-crafted policies could allow some parties to break through the “orange wall” in Bangkok.
What chance for other parties?
Pornpan named Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and the Democrats as parties with the potential to gain a foothold in the capital.
“Bhumjaithai is riding a surge in nationalist sentiment, coupled with credit earned for recruiting capable technocrats as government ministers,” she said.
She added that the People’s Party may struggle in less developed Bangkok districts such as Nong Chok and Bang Khun Thian, even as it performs strongly among similar urban electorates in other provinces.
“Constituency 1 [city centre] voters in many provinces share similar characteristics with Bangkokians,” she noted.
Stithorn Thananithichot, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science, said it would be difficult for rival parties to make significant inroads in Bangkok.
“If you look at results from the 2023 election, the runners-up trailed far behind the People’s Party in Bangkok,” he said.
However, Pheu Thai sources say the party is targeting at least five Bangkok constituencies.
The party’s main target is Constituency 20 (Lat Krabang), where Pheu Thai’s Theerarat Samrejvanich won by just four votes in the 2023 election, preventing a People’s Party shutout in the capital.
The others include Constituency 15 (Khan Na Yao and parts of Beung Kum), where Pheu Thai’s candidate is a former multi-term MP; and Constituency 10 (Don Mueang), where Pheu Thai is fielding Phumipat Hosakul, son of veteran politician Karun Hosakul.
Karun had held the seat through successive elections before losing it in 2023, when he defected to run under the Thai Sang Thai Party banner. Combined with votes cast for Pheu Thai, his tally would have been enough to retain the seat.
The other two Pheu Thai targets are Constituency 27 (Bang Khun Thian-Bang Bon) and Constituency 19 (Min Buri).
The Democrat Party has its best chance of victory in Constituency 4 (Klong Toei-Vadhana) and Constituency 32 (Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai), according to Stithorn.
Democrat deputy leader Sakoltee Phattiyakul blamed the party’s poor performances at the ballot box in Bangkok on strategic missteps.
“In the past two elections, people rejected us because we misread the situation and took the wrong direction,” he said. “This pushed voters towards alternatives like Prayut’s party.
Now that Prayut is no longer in politics, those voters may return to us.”
He added that the return of former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to the party’s helm, coupled with his positive public image, could restore voter confidence.
In 2023, Bangkok recorded a high turnout of 74.26%. The United Thai Nation Party, Prayut’s vehicle, won the party-list poll with 630,997 votes, followed by Pheu Thai on 600,237 and the Democrat Party with just 85,968.
Turning to this election, NIDA Poll’s Suvichai said the People’s Party could face stiff competition in five or six constituencies in Bangkok.
“There is a strong possibility that other parties could win these seats, particularly if the contest becomes too one-sided,” he said.
