According to early counts and the most recent polls, the Move Forward Party has surged into an early lead in the capital and looks poised to make an impressive sweep of Bangkok.

Move Forward’s gains are likely to be Pheu Thai’s losses, as initial signs are pointing towards a shattered dream of an election landslide for the latter.

Early counts show that Move Forward stands to win all but one or two seats in the capital, which has swung between pro and anti-Thaksin sentiment. It is too early to tell whether Thaksin Shinawatra’s vow to return to Thailand and ex-red shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan’s daily criticism of Thaksin had anything to do with Move Forward’s higher-than-expected support.

As of 8 pm, Move Forward was comfortably ahead of Pheu Thai in terms of seats, but there were more than 90 per cent of votes to be counted. Pheu Thai is still projected to emerge as the election winner, but its hope of surpassing the 300 seat mark is looking unlikely to be fulfilled as of now. Certain polls, conducted very recently, even forecast that Pheu Thai is in danger of winning fewer than 200 seats.

Post-election political horse-trading in Thailand means, however, that this is not all good news for Move Forward. Pheu Thai winning far fewer seats than expected could lead the party into a coalition structure unfavourable to Move Forward. There have been several examples in Thai politics where parties which win big still end up in opposition.