6 June 2024

A political science professor at Sukhothai Thammathirat University says there are three possible scenarios for the formation of the next government, now that Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat cannot be re-nominated as prime minister.

Associate Professor Yuthaporn Issarachai said that the first scenario is that the Pheu Thai will part company with Move Forward to join hands with the Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath, Chartthaipattana, Prachachat, and a few other micro parties in forming a government.

The Pheu Thai party must, however, be able to explain why it decided to dump Move Forward to embrace the Palang Pracharath party whose leader, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, is seen by many as representing the dictatorship.

The second scenario is to part company with Move Forward to join hands with the other parties, except Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation. There is, however, a drawback to this scenario. The coalition may command only a slim majority in the House, which could threaten its stability.  Moreover, the Pheu Thai party must, again, explain to the voters why it decided to dump the Move Forward party.

The third scenario is to stay put, within the eight party coalition, but with Pheu Thai taking the lead in the formation of the government. There is, however, only a slim chance for this scenario, because Pheu Thai may not be able to get enough support from senators, who are openly opposed to having the Move Forward in the next government, said Yuthaporn.

There are three other factors that Pheu Thai must address, namely the departure from politics of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the planned return of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the politics of the people.