When Newin Chidchob, the de facto patriarch of Bhumjaithai Party, vowed last week that he will have its leader Anutin Charnvirakul installed as the next prime minister, he was definitely not bluffing. In fact, he was echoing one of the most talked about possible scenarios in the aftermath of the next general elections.
Bhumjaithai is certainly not the biggest political party. And though it doesnot go around boasting about wanting to win a landslide election victory like some parties do, it is far from being modest.
It’s currently the second biggest party in the Prayut coalition governmentand its support is crucial to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s political survival. Unlike most other political parties that have been torn by internal dissensions, Bhumjaithai has been stable with its clout steadily growing.
The party prides itself on its “middle of the road” policy which is credited for its political rise. It means the party is not necessarily aligned with any particular political beliefs. In other words, it means that it’s ready to work with anyone who offers it the best option.
Bhumjaithai’s political stand certainly works in the context of the current Thai politics which still sees political parties with opposing views going at each other’s throat. It has successfully presented itself as an alternative to the two political extremes – one supporting the powers-that-be led by Prayut and the other at the beck and call of self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
As things stand today, Pheu Thai, currently the biggest opposition party, has a good prospect of dominating the next general elections. Paethongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter, has made a dramatic appearance in the political scene in her capacity as the “head of Pheu Thai family” and is touted as a potential candidate for prime minister, greatly boosting the party’s popularity in constituencies where her father is still widely admired.
On the other hand, though much weakened, the ruling Palang PracharathParty under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, a key figure in 2014 military coup, seems to be doing everything it can to stay in power after the next general elections.
Though the two parties are expected to be major contenders in the next elections, neither is expected to win enough seats to form a government on its own. And this is where Bhumjaithai’s role is most crucial. In short, the post-election government is most likely to be a coalition and playing the role of a kingmaker will be Bhumjaithai.
That explains why all of a sudden, Bhumjaithai has become a political magnet, drawing potential defectors from a number of both government and opposition parties. In fact, Bhumjaithai has been attracting MPs from other parties since it joined the Prayut coalition following the general elections in 2014 which saw it win 51 seats. Now it has as many as 61 MPs under its wings.
As the next elections draw near, Bhumjaithai has become even more attractive. Newin’s birthday celebrations in Buriram last week drew a number of MPs from other parties who make no secret of their desire to switch camps. Even the ruling Palang Pracharath Party is not spared the prospects of its MPs defecting to Bhumjaithai – not to mention the Democrat which is being mired in internal squabbles.
It’s believed that the uncertainty surrounding Prayut’s political future is a key factor prompting some of the Palang Pracharath’s MPs to contemplate abandoning ship. Prayut was elected prime minister under the banner of PalangPracharath in the 2019 general elections, but it’s unclear whether the party will still want him as its candidate for the top executive post.
According the Constitutional Court’s ruling, Prayut can serve no more than two years if he is re-elected as prime minister after the next general elections. It’s a limitation that is dimming Prayut’s political future to the point that the party may not want to nominate him as a candidate for prime minister – or that he may not be its only candidate like he was back in 2019.
High-ranking executives of Bhumjaithai told Thai PBS World that the party intends to make a splash in the upcoming elections with its leader AnutinCharnvirakul once again nominated as its prime minister candidate. The soft-spoken businessman-turned-politician is currently deputy prime minister and public health minister. Normally, reserved and humble, Anutin, however, has been increasingly vocal in staking him claim to the country’s top executive job.
The Bhumjaithai executives admitted that though Bhumjaithai may not emerge the biggest winner in the next elections, it will certainly play a crucial role in shaping the post-election government. “We can say for sure that whoever wins the elections will need Bhumjaithai to form a government,” said one of the executives.
Such confidence grows out of the reality on the ground. Bhumjaithai has been chipping away at political strongholds of all major parties in many constituencies. Even the Democrat Party, currently its coalition partner, is feeling threatened by the prospects of losing many of its seats in its political bastion in the south to Bhumjaithai in the next elections. Bhumjaithai has also been successfully making inroads into Pheu Thai’s strongholds in the north and northeast.
It’s no coincidence that Newin, a political veteran with controversial past,has come out to make a headline-making claim that Bhumjaithai aims to win as many as 120 seats in the next elections – enough to make Anutin the next prime minister. Such bold claim is seen as another attempt to boost the party’s political stock price.
Though he is not holding any formal position in Bhumjaithai, Newin is known to wield great influence in the party. With his political acumen and connection, Newin’s role as kingmaker will be indispensable, especially for Anutin.
By Thepchai Yong
