Will Pheu Thai’s controversial pledge to hand 10,000 baht to every Thai citizen aged 16 and over be the “killer policy” that secures a landslide victory in the May 14 general election?

The opposition party, which is aiming to regain political power after an eight-year hiatus, seems to think so, judging from remarks made by many of its key figures.

They say that if the party forms the post-election government, the promised handout could be implemented as early as January 1 next year.

Pheu Thai has stood firm in the face of growing warnings over the handout pledge, dismissing the criticism as politically motivated.

Making a big pledge

The party announced the policy during an election rally in Nonthaburi on April 5, explaining its purpose was to stimulate the economy.

Under the plan, an e-coupon worth 10,000 baht will be transferred into digital wallets held by every Thai citizen aged 16 or over. The money can only be spent at local shops and businesses within 4 kilometres of their registered address. Recipients have six months to spend the e-coupon before the project expires.

Since there are between 55 million and 56 million Thais aged 16-plus, the project will cost an estimated 550-560 billion baht.

Coming under fire

Critics have called the plan an “irresponsible” attempt to buy votes with the state budget, and an example of naked populism designed to win power.

Some critics cautioned the project would strain government funds, while others claimed that the pledge breaks electoral law, which prohibits “a promise to give money, property or any other benefit in order to induce an eligible voter to cast a vote for any candidate”.

Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, warned that a handout totalling more than 500 billion baht could inflate the national debt and undermine the country’s monetary and fiscal stability. He said such a large amount of money should instead be spent on development projects that benefit the country in the long term.

He also questioned if it was necessary to give 10,000 baht to everyone aged 16 and over, including those with high incomes and private wealth.

The campaign promises and populism shaping Thailand’s 2023 election

‘Great-grandfather of populism’

Former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, who is now a key figure in the Seree Ruam Thai (Thai Liberal) Party, called the Pheu Thai pledge “the great-grandfather of populism”. He said the digital-wallet pledge could also be a violation of the election law, which prohibits parties from promising rewards to voters.

Former Bank of Thailand governor Tarisa Watanagase questioned how Pheu Thai would raise enough money to implement the digital handout. She pointed out that the plan would require at least 500 billion baht, or up to 18% of the state budget.

She called the plan “irresponsible”, describing it as a move to pamper voters at the expense of fiscal discipline. The former central banker said a Pheu Thai government would have to borrow to fund the plan, which would drive up public debt.

Election Commission seeks answers

Critics are also questioning whether Pheu Thai thoroughly examined the plan before announcing the handout pledge.

They said key party figures have provided conflicting information about the plan. Initially, the party said the handout would come in the form of digital money, but later it shifted to e-vouchers in the digital wallet.

The party’s economic and legal teams were reportedly in dispute over the plan, particularly on how it would be funded.

The Election Commission (EC) recently asked parties including Pheu Thai to submit written explanations of their election pledges that would require state funding. The explanations must include estimated budget, the source of that budget, and the worthiness, benefit and risks of the pledges, as per Article 57 of the Political Parties Act.

Prayut confident of making a comeback, but prepared “to go home”

Explaining to the watchdog

Responding to the EC’s request, Pheu Thai said last week that the money for its handout would mainly come from taxes and the state budget.

In its written explanation signed by party leader Cholnan Srikaew, the party said 260 billion baht would come from a projected increase in state revenue, another 100 billion from taxes earned from the policy’s implementation, 130 billion from budget management, and 90 billion from the overlapping welfare budget.

Regarding the plan’s worthiness and benefit, Pheu Thai said the policy would give Thai citizens spending power to stimulate the country’s economy and economic development. It expected stimulus benefits from the handout to be spread all over the country, resulting in overall economic expansion.

The digital wallet would also benefit the country’s financial development, as it would create a “new monetary format” through blockchain technology. Also, Thai businesses would benefit from people’s increased purchasing power, it added.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk