Thailand’s ECI for the third quarter is expected to decline further

Thailand’s household economic condition index (ECI) for the third quarter of this year is likely to drop further due to an ongoing global economic slowdown, which has impacted the domestic economy and employment, according to the Kasikorn Thai research centre.

The report said that a survey of economic conditions in October showed signs of increased layoffs, compared to July.

It said that the ECI for the last quarter of this year remains fragile and susceptible to further decline, despite the Government’s efforts to implement stimulus packages.

Meanwhile, about 60% of retail business operators (life-style products and consumer products) in Bangkok and surrounding provinces report poor sales this year, compared to last year’s performance, and 65% were not sure if or when their businesses will recover, said Kasikorn Thai research centre.

The uncertainty in the retail sector reflects its concern over future economic conditions and the purchasing power of consumers, said the research centre.

Amidst stagnant consumer purchasing power and continuing pressure on retail businesses, the Kasikorn Thai research centre predicted retail business next year might grow between 2.7%-3%, compared to this year’s 3.1%.

Low-end retail businesses, such as mom-and-pop convenience stores and hyper-markets which target low and middle-income earners, are likely to register poor growth compared to e-commerce businesses and super markets, which target upper middle income-earners, said the research centre.


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