Don’t let the drone-painted skies during the New Year countdowns fool you. That is as beautiful as 2024 can ever get, because this year is going to be the most problematic in years, not just for Thailand but also the rest of the world.

Domestically, imagine a bunch of lunatics dancing across a minefield absolutely oblivious to any danger. That’s how this year will pan out politically. However, what can happen internationally can make any explosion the Thais trigger look like a harmless firework.

Simply put, the love-hate triangle among the conservatives, Pheu Thai and Move Forward is bound to come to the boiling point this year, with digital wallet, Thaksin Shinawatra and charter amendment creating situations where ones can’t separate friends from foes. Chaos will spread from Parliament to the streets, and if a Pheu Thai-led administration cracks down on protesters, one more irony will be added to the growing pile of Thai political absurdities.

Among names to watch is Paetongtarn Shinawatra. As she keeps dropping down the popularity table, topped by Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat at the moment, her star may actually be rising when the premiership is concerned. This strange phenomenon will elevate Move Forward and Pheu Thai from “frenemies” to full-scale enemies.

On the surface, it appears everyone’s restraint will prevent an eruption. The Democrats are being held back by the fact that they were in the previous government, while Move Forward has been trying to scold the previous government without hurting the Democrats. For Pheu Thai, it can’t really blame the previous government for a lot of things for obvious reasons. As for Pheu Thai’s reluctant allies, they can’t criticise the treatment of Thaksin Shinawatra.

While the situation is laughable, it’s also a dangerous tightrope and everyone is on it. When the no-confidence debate comes, the Thaksin issue will be elevated ten times. That and charter amendment can completely break up Pheu Thai and Move Forward, just like what digital wallet can do to the ties between Pheu Thai and current “allies”.

The first street protest against the Pheu Thai government will be interesting. It will be over anything but “Prayut, get out”. Not only is Prayut Chan-o-cha gone, but so will be the provisional power of senators to join the House of Representatives in selecting the prime minister.

Like before, “proxies” will dominate Thai political fights. Unlike before, they no longer represent straightforward polarity. Like before, the proxies are shape-shifters. But unlike before, they are changing their forms particularly fast.

One key political factor is that while Pita is Move Forward’s only prime ministerial candidate, Pheu Thai can sell Paetongtarn for the top executive post whenever it likes. Move Forward, waiting apprehensively for the court’s ruling on Pita’s future, must be kicking itself wondering why it had not added some more nominations.

Paetongtarn challenging realistically for the premiership will make many drop their jaws, but imagine Donald Trump getting banned from the US presidential race this year or, better still, returning triumphantly to the White House. If either scenario happens (Both are quite likely considering Trump’s accumulating legal troubles and his large popularity), it matters little who the Thai prime minister is.

It used to be virtually meaningless who controls Washington. This time, a changing of the guard will generate huge global shockwaves apart from big ramifications in the United States. At a time when the world is staring at dangerous standoffs and America itself at unprecedented political divisions threatening a civil war, this year’s presidential race has the highest stake in memory.

The Gaza war is continuing unabated and many signs are that it could get worse and escalate into fighting between countries. Already, it has made the “toothless” United Nations look much more helpless, so when the situation gets bigger, the helplessness will certainly multiply.

New Year celebrations have drowned out the US military announcement that it had killed about 10 or so Houthi fighters and sank three of the Yemeni armed group’s vessels after a clash in the Red Sea. The incident was related to Gaza, as it followed weeks of alleged Houthi attacks on ships apparently linked to Israel. The Houthi spokesman was quoted by news agencies as saying that the militant group wanted to pressure Israel to stop the Gaza violence that has killed more than 21,000 Palestinians.

Diplomatic noises are quieter on the Ukraine front where the bombs are still exploding. All of Gaza, Ukraine and Taiwan are current or potential flashpoints that can turn into something much more terrible this year. Yet while they involve the biggest armed forces in the world, global worries must go beyond that simple fact.

Threats of widespread violence are existing against a backdrop that was never there before, even during the preludes to World War I and World War II. People left and right are losing faith in what they thought was a protector they could rely on. This is a massive issue, because faith often played a big part when a decision had to be made about whom to fight with and what to fight for.

When doubts or confusions reign, so does chaos.

By Tulsathit Taptim