February 6, 2026: The charter referendum outcome should mirror the election results, but that doesn’t mean the opposite can’t happen.
If the Orange wins the election, it’s very likely that the “Yes” vote will prevail in the referendum asking Thais whether the current Constitution should be rewritten. If the Blue triumphs, the referendum should say no.
But the unthinkable might happen. In other words, the Blue may win but the majority of voters still wants the charter to be changed, or the Orange may come out on top but “No” turns out to be the referendum answer.
Or it can get a little more complicated on Sunday. Close election and/or referendum results can embolden the losing side, which can quite legitimately say a large number of Thais want this or want that. Only clear-cut landslides can help the winner keep the rivals quiet.
Bangkok: Orange’s fortress under siege
February 5, 2026: The People’s Party’s goal for the Thai capital is not to duplicate 2023, but get as close to it as possible.
The sweep of 32 out of a total 33 Bangkok seats is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to repeat due to several factors. First, the popularity, sympathy and positive let’s-try-it curiosity are less than three years ago. Second, the Democrats are apparently resurging. Third, Pheu Thai is hoping to realistically bounce back. Fourth, many poor vendors who wanted to try a new thing in the last general election are apparently turning their backs on the Orange due to some negative publicity drummed up by the opponents.
Fifth, the core support, young voters, may be shrinking although it remains massive. Sixth, Bangkok is the most fickle politically, having taken so many politicians up so high and brought them crashing down to earth so hard.
Bangkok’s exit polls will be a great indication this time. Normally, such polls effectively sounded out opinions of early voters, who traditionally are vendors who didn’t want elections to disrupt their money-earning routines. If those polls show a pro-Orange trend, the People’s Party can be very optimistic about the eventual Bangkok outcome, because young voters will only add to the morning advantage. But if the exit polls come out anti-Orange, the People’s Party will need to rely on latecomers, their supporters who don’t need to rush out to vote, to turn it around.
Virtually every popularity poll indicates that the People’s Party will remain the overall Bangkok winner. But the party set the bar so high in 2023 that duplication will be a dream, winning three or four fewer seats will be a great success, winning 10 fewer seats, give or take, will be a realistic achievement, and just winning more than any other opponent will be enough for celebration.
Do Cambodians hate ‘Ultraman’?
February 4, 2026: It appears obvious who the Cambodians want to win the Thai election. But never overthink it.
The Phnom Penh Post’s front-page headline story saying that if Bhumjaithai becomes the next government, Thailand will be “more hostile” toward Cambodia, negatively affecting the already volatile bilateral relationship, is having intriguing effects on this side of the border.
It is being played up by the Blue camp (See? Who are tougher against the Cambodians?) while the Orange is being conspicuously silent about it (We can’t put that in our election campaign or ‘Cambodian’ will be added to our party’s name).
And what a picture The Phnom Penh Post used with the story as well. The supposedly Bhumjaithai-bashing story was accompanied by Anutin Charnvirakul in an Ultraman posture during a political rally. If you don’t read the headline and the story, you can be forgiven for assuming that it is a positive report about him.
But all the conspiracy theorists out there, hold your horses. If this is a plot at the highest levels of both countries to tilt the Thai election in Bhumjaithai’s favour, the entire Cambodia must be in on it, be it government leaders, politicians, academics, the media or even ordinary people. And don’t forget the collateral damage on the Cambodian side of the border, and the fact that the territorial dispute erupted long before Bhumjaithai stood any chance of leading a government.
Let’s just say the possibility of The Phnom Penh Post reflecting a genuine Cambodian desire is significantly higher than The Phnom Penh Post wanting to discredit or help any Thai political party. Let’s just say the Cambodians are simply watching what is going on in Thailand and analysing it.
‘Nationalist crows’, luxury trips, Thai anthem in home stretch
February 3, 2026: In the last few days before a general election, you throw kitchen sink, and policies must wait.
Both sides in the rivalry are as guilty. At first glance, the Orange looks like reacting to attacks, being at the receiving end, but after a more thorough consideration, it can be anything but. Current political uproars that will go a long way toward determining who wins this Sunday are political games not necessarily initiated by the Blue.
The crows clip in which one or more black birds appear to be taking an Orange candidate’s personal details pasted for advanced voters out from a board emerged after the People’s Party’s complaints against “biased” electoral officials in Phetchaburi. Information about “luxurious” parliamentary trips by Orange members of Parliament followed the People’s Party’s similar accusations against state officials.
The “Poor, old and stupid” controversy was started by a pro-Orange online post which has seemingly backfired badly. It debatably destroyed the Orange momentum regarding the management of social security finances.
However, the People’s Party did not want to make an issue out of the hands-crossed-behind-the-back posture of Orange leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut while the national anthem was playing. But the incident which took place during a public policy debate with other parties’ bosses has played into the hands of the rivals nicely. They claim it reflects his rebellious attitude.
Even an anti-Orange news commentator admitted that Natthaphong’s posture (He stood up straight like the others, but, unlike the others, his hands were not by his sides but were crossed behind his back) would not have triggered an uproar if it had been somebody else. You have to connect the dots or look at the whole picture forming over the years to feel suspicious, the commentator said.
Sometimes it was partly hilarious. The crows clip, for instance, spawned funny anti-Orange comments online. But the big-picture showdown tells us about a very intense ideological war out there threatening social fabrics seriously. It’s the same as when the Yellow was fighting the Red before Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s coup. It also means that Thailand can remain deeply cursed no matter what happens on Sunday.
Epstein files’ chaos has just begun
February 2, 2026: Internet jokes are that if the US strikes Iran, it’ll be to divert attention from some damaging documents.
One thing that is 100 % true is that the Epstein files is a political napalm that is sending both the Republicans and Democrats running for their lives, but the devastating effects are not limited to within the US borders.
Donald Trump, the Clintons and a former UK ambassador to the United States are among the first high-profile people whose Epstein-related anxieties have spiked. Elsewhere, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has said he agreed with Crown Princess Mette-Marit's admission of "poor judgement" after it emerged she had extensive contacts with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. A royally-disowned former UK prince is now having to deal with curious photos of him on all fours with a seemingly unconscious but fully-dressed woman lying so very close nearby.
The Trump and Clinton connections are never a surprise. Epstein’s powerful links go all the way to the very top of American politics and they are where party partisanship disappears completely. They are a main reason, actually, why many “conspiracy theorists” still believe that the Democrats and Republicans are not “that different” but are being wrapped around the same secret yet omnipresent finger.
The late sex offender, who died in prison under controversial “suicide” circumstances in 2019, was either a blackmailer or still remains a blackmail tool or simply a bombshell. Files concerning his legal case has been used by Trump to threaten his political enemies, against him by his rivals wanting to discredit him, and by “conspiracy theorists” to explain some sudden, unexpected military action initiated by America against other territories.
Last week’s release of the Epstein files, millions of documents, followed the release of a smaller batch in December that showed for the first time photos of Bill Clinton and Epstein together, and a shirtless Clinton in a hot tub with someone suspected to be a victim of Epstein’s sexual abuse.
According to the CNN, the Justice Department’s latest release “offers fresh insights into how former President Bill Clinton’s staff communicated with Jeffrey Epstein and his longtime associate Ghislaine Maxwell, including sometimes-lewd email exchanges.”
The latest files include frequent communications between Maxwell — who is currently in prison for sex trafficking — and Clinton staffers between 2001 and 2004. It was during this period that Bill Clinton travelled with his staffers on Epstein’s private plane at least 16 times as reported by the CNN.
The network also noted that the document dump has come just days before an expected House contempt vote against the Clintons after they rebuffed a subpoena to testify in a bipartisan probe into Epstein.
Trump can’t be smiling, though. He is mentioned more than 1,000 times in the newly-released files. “While some of the references are benign, others include newly disclosed unverified sexual assault claims against Trump as well as fresh details about how some of Epstein’s victims described their interactions with the future president,” said the CNN.
The BBC is having the same busy time as its American counterpart. Lord Mandelson has resigned his membership of the Labour Party as he did not want to "cause further embarrassment" by his links to the late convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, the UK network report.
The former Cabinet minister, who was sacked as US ambassador last year because of his past connections to Epstein, appeared in the latest release of Epstein files. The BBC said documents suggested Epstein made $75,000 (£55,000) in payments to Lord Mandelson in three separate $25,000 transactions in 2003 and 2004.
In his letter to Labour's general secretary, Lord Mandelson said, as quoted by the BBC: "I have been further linked this weekend to the understandable furore surrounding Jeffrey Epstein and I feel regretful and sorry about this."
Pep Guardiola wants world to heed Gaza cries
February 1, 2026: When political leaders who matter are silent, the world’s most popular football coach will do.
And what a job Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is doing. At a high-profile charity event in Barcelona last week, he has said what the world expected from the likes of Donald Trump or Keir Starmer on Gaza, and powerfully so.
On stage wearing a Palestinian keffiyeh, he talked about images that have circulated widely on the social media and broken his heart.
Children were crying “where is my mother?” among the rubble, he said.
That kind of a scene is the real moral challenge for humanity, Guardiola insisted. It was not a distant tragedy, he said. It was an innocent cry for help, done in desperation, not in hope.
“And I think we have left them alone, abandoned. I always imagine them saying, ‘Where are you? Come help us.’
“And even now, we haven’t done it. Perhaps because those in power are cowards, because they basically send innocent young people to kill innocent people.”
He urged everyone not to look away from the crisis, insisting that the world must make “a step forward, a statement for Palestine and… a statement for humanity.”
“We stand before the world to prove that we are, naturally, on the side of the weakest, which in this case is Palestine, but not Palestine alone, but all causes,” he said. “This is a statement for Palestine, and it is a statement for humanity.”
The event brought together artists, activists and public figures to raise funds and awareness for humanitarian and cultural initiatives in Palestine. Guardiola has consistently used his status as one of the most-watched football figures to enhance awareness on humanitarian issues, advancing causes like Palestine, compassion and human dignity, and this time he's taking action during one of the most competitive and meaningful football seasons.
Daily updates of, and opinions on, local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
