September 16, 2024: Academic and political commentator Seri Wongmontha has made a good point. In a Facebook post, he expressed an interesting opinion on why the People’s Party (formerly Move Forward) lost the by-election in Phitsanulok and how rivals may have found an effective strategy to deal with its popularity previously considered to be hardly beatable.
Seri said that as long as it was one against one, the rival always stood a chance. The People’s Party, he pointed out, would thrive whenever there are more than one rivals who take votes away from each other or one another.
“There are anti-orange voters in practically every constituency, but if these people have more than one choice they will split,” Seri said. “This is clear mathematically.”
The observation was backed up by numbers generated by last year’s general election. Move Forward (now the People’s Party) won about 14.4 million popular votes, while Pheu Thai got nearly 11 million votes. It was obvious who won, but when votes cast for the United Thai Nation Party were added up, let alone votes for Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and the Democrats, the election winner stopped being the winner.
Good news for the rivals is Seri’s analysis appears correct, but bad news is that there are no ways to make it one against one in a general election, no matter how “friendly” parties are toward one another. To add to that, Pheu Thai, to its reluctant allies, is not their beloved big guy whom they will make sacrifice for.
The Phitsanulok by-election has exposed strengths and weaknesses of both the government and the opposition. What will be capitalized on is another matter.
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