December 1, 2025: Weeks ago, the Democrats were going into a coma. But a miracle may still happen.
A Hail Mary in October, a decision to bring back Abhisit Vejjajiva, can still prove a very good gamble if the latest NIDA survey is any indication.
The poll does not suggest a grand comeback, but it shows a vast improvement when the same pollsters’ findings just over a year ago were taken into account.
That one confirmed that Thailand’s oldest political party was hitting rock bottom, with leadership turmoil continuing and brain drains showing no signs of stopping. The NIDA poll last year surveyed southern backers of the Democrats, asking them what to do in the next election.
A staggering 41.3% said they would no longer vote for it. Another 41% said they were not so sure this time. Only slightly over 17% would still vote for the Democrats no matter what.
Probably Abhisit’s “stubbornness” and his hard-to-read ideological stand had partly to do with the party’s decline. Yet if the party somehow exceeded low expectations early next year, it will add to a lengthening list of major political ironies Thailand has been experiencing.
Southerners electorally up for grabs
November 30, 2025: Once upon a time there was no need to predict election results in southern Thailand.
The region, under the Democrat Party’s iron grip a decade or so ago, is now a political lottery. That’s what the most recent NIDA poll has found.
The mega floods may have been a big factor, whose lifespan remains to be seen. The survey of 2,000 people covering 14 provinces has found that as many as 32.25% of them favoured no particular prime ministerial candidate. That’s the biggest group, followed by the Democrat Party’s Abhisit Vejjajiva (25.65%), Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party (15.40%) and Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut of the People’s Party (12.85%).
As we can see, even if Anutin and Natthaphong were combined, the support for both men who are favourites for the top job after the next election would still be less than the number of people who say they still don’t like anyone.
When asked about parties they support, the hard-to-please group slid to second, but was almost as big as the group backing the Democrat Party. It was 28.60% against 28.45%, virtually inseparable.
The People’s Party came third (17.80%) and the Bhumjaithai Party (11.65%).
The race is wide open.
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