February 26, 2025: Are Thaksin Shinawatra and Newin Chidchob pulling the political strings? If not, why do rumours, or speculation, or gossips, about their meetings (whether planned or which have already taken place) receive so much attention?
While Thaksin has been roaming the political landscape with wild abandon, in complete disregard of huge legal or constitutional consequences, Newin’s name has just emerged in political news after a long, self-imposed exile from politics and a happy life with Buriram United FC.
Whether Thaksin is affecting the political tempo is far less questionable. From his return from Dubai, to the setting up of the Srettha government that incorporated the conservatives, to the naming of his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra as current prime minister, to the revival of the Entertainment Complex idea, the fingerprints are everywhere.
Through all those developments, it was assumed that Newin was too preoccupied with the Thai premier league and AFC champions league football to get involved in ever-changing politics. Claims that he and Thaksin were planning clear-the-air talks amid snowballing conflicts between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties have all but erased that perception.
It was also presumed that Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, now interior minister and deputy prime minister, had sufficiently solidified his political clout and was ready to get out of Newin’s shadow.
So, the “Thai Deep State” scenario has the prime minister’s father on one side and the mentor of her biggest ally on the other. Whether or how much Thaksin and Newin are influencing Thai politics is up to everyone’s speculation, but the question is getting louder at a time when planned charter reform, the crossroads of the Entertainment Complex, Yingluck Shinawatra’s “return”, and how the Department of Special Investigation would treat senatorial election controversies are reaching crucial stages.
Clear-the-air talks happen in private
February 25, 2025: Publicly-known hotel meetings of politicians are never for important political businesses. Only gullible reporters believe that deadly-serious matters will be debated over the meals known to every news organisation in town in advance.
If politicians want to mend fences amid big conflicts, or elaborate on secret deals, or initiate controversial and lucrative projects, they will meet covertly elsewhere and do everything they can to make sure that whatever is discussed doesn’t leave the room.
The Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties certainly are in need of clear-the-air talks, particularly with the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) hovering over senatorial election controversies that allegedly resulted in an unfair ideological edge. But to assume that the “Pullman deal has collapsed before it started” (which suggests there is no way back for the estrangement) is wide off the mark.
Meanwhile, pictures of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul giggling before news cameras after the Cabinet meeting today don’t mean anything either. There were also a lot of quotes from Paetongtarn and Anutin on government unity today, though. Whether that has anything to do with the stock market edginess is debatable.
Here are what she said: “Even family members can’t agree on everything.” “We don’t call it a rift if two people try to talk to solve their differences.” “It’s normal for coalition partners to have different opinions, because even members of the same party can’t have a 100 % consensus.”
Here is what he said on government stability: “This administration will absolutely complete its term.”
When reporters asked Paetongtarn if she thought the delayed charter amendment process and the DSI contemplating investigating the senatorial elections would “widen the rift” between Pheu Thai and Bhujaithai, she turned to Anutin. “Is there a rift between you and me?” the prime minister asked.
His reply: “I dare not even think about it.” A chorus of laughter greeted that.
Like they say, even people who want to kill each other smile or even laugh together in the same photos.
Why human rights should be dissociated from politics
February 24, 2025: In one part of the world, a microscope has been put on a former leader’s statement regarding deaths of Muslims killed because of his state policies. In another part of the world, a superpower nation that always preaches human rights vetoed an official UN condemnation of the Gaza atrocity a few months ago.
This is not to say that what Thaksin Shinawatra did in Thailand’s deep south while he was the prime minister should be condoned. This is to say that the world’s human rights standards were too multiple for comfort.
And it’s all because of politics, which dictates everyone from top to bottom, in the poorest countries and richest nations.
Are Thailand’s deep south deaths and Gaza deaths any different? They took place in areas where insurgents were active and in hiding, where it was sometimes hard to tell bad people from innocent ones. The concept of human rights is fundamentally about being able to treat those caught in between justly. Both cases were the ultimate challenges.
To be fair to Thaksin, he has told Thailand’s deep south he was sorry for any “mistake”. But then again, he could have said so because of politics.
So, not only has politics been influencing the world on how it should think about and act on human rights violations, it is also dictating to people when to turn a blind eye or when to apologise. Simply put, politics can make just about anyone a human rights hypocrite.
If human rights activists are as vocal against the United States and Israel as they are against Thaksin, the world will be definitely a nicer place to live.
Thai public acknowledge, sort of, Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai conflict
February 23, 2025: A significant number of Thais don’t seem to take the problems between two key ruling parties seriously. If the latest NIDA poll is indicative of what most people think, many Thais are seeing the Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai conflicts as fighting in children’s playgrounds.
The opinion survey, covering more than 1,300 Thais and conducted just a few days ago, all but ruled out Bhumjaithai leaving the government, be it through withdrawal (just over 2%) or expulsion (only 1%).
Almost 39% acknowledge they have learned about the conflicts, but they say they don’t look serious to them. About 33%, though, think what has been going on between the two parties is fairly serious. Over 17% don’t see any problem.
Answering the question what it could lead to, some 38% think both parties would eventually mend fences. Almost the same percentage see a dormant volcano that, however, will never explode (Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai will be like a husband and wife who squabble every day but will never get a divorce).
The opinion poll followed a series of uneasy events: The reversal of the cannabis policy; Thaksin Shinawatra’s remark that “anyone unhappy should leave now”; The electricity cut showdown affecting border townships just outside Thailand; Bhumjaithai ruining Pheu Thai’s Provincial Administration Organisation election party; and Bhumjaithai questioning the charter amendment process (whose disruptions could actually help Pheu Thai, though).
Guidance that changes every day
February 22, 2025: What should the world believe? Donald Trump’s America or Joe Biden's America?
The question underlines the fact that “right and wrong” is influenced by how the political wind blows in the United States, and each country’s foreign policy has to keep track of how the White House flip-flops under each leader.
Take Ukraine as an example. The new president has called its president Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and has said French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer "haven't done anything" to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, ahead of his top allies’ visits to the White House next week. To add to it, Trump’s political apparatus is hinting at the possibility of embezzlement regarding the US funding during Biden’s reign.
It’s a very far cry from the old US president, who sent enormous aid money to Zelensky, dismissing corruption charges in the process, gave him solid military support, encouraged him every other day, and stood side by side NATO in wishing Russia an ultimate defeat no matter what.
This is not a tiny difference. This is a big contrast. This is going in opposite directions.
Leadership is about implementing a firm belief on good and bad, consciously and morally, not politically. This is a lot more important if you want to be a world leader, one who sets standards and orders. You don’t want to confuse your “followers.”
Changing foreign policies every four years only to suit the whims of American political rivals competing in the Washington musical chairs is not just tiring. It does not feel right.
Captain America battles Ne Zha
February 21, 2025: The US’ competition with China is manifesting in the form of a proxy “warfare” unheard of previously.
The unprecedented Box Office rise of China’s Ne Zha 2 (top grossing animation in the world right now, having dethroned Hollywood’s Inside Out 2) is making everyone concerned focus on how well Captain America: Brave New World will do.
And, as expected, pro-America and pro-China rhetorical statements, comments and mainstream news reports are now in full throttle.
In other words, Captain America and Ne Zha are fighting a proxy war. One is striving to maintain the previously-unchallenged status of Hollywood while the other is seeking to demonstrate that Hollywood’s days of glory and cinematic excellence are no longer monopolistic.
Pro-west media narratives have it that Ne Zha 2 got lucky because it was made and released in a large, single market where nationalism is easy to drum up. Additionally, the Chinese New Year holidays helped. As for Captain America, the film only managed limited showing in China. A comment "I don't care if Ne Zha 2 can survive overseas, but Captain America 4 must die in China" was highlighted by the western press.
Anti-US narratives seek to remind everyone that America’s superhero movies usually did well in China, and if Ne Zha 2 was “lucky”, maybe Marvel and James Cameron were lucky, too. And while Captain America: Brave New World are being shown in far fewer theatres in China, the reverse is happening to Ne Zha 2 in the United States. Europe also embraces American movies and gives Chinese films virtually no chance.
The BBC claims the Chinese are “gloating” over the underwhelming performance of the latest sequel of Captain America in China’s movie industry. The network suggests nationalism plays a big part, an opinion echoed by a lot of western media networks when it started to look like the Chinese production, Ne Zha 2, would be certain to break Box Office records.
Of the $92 million the latest Captain America has made outside the US, only $10.6 million has come from China, usually Hollywood's largest overseas market, the BBC said on Thursday.
“It's not Captain America that's dying, but America that's dying,” reads the title of an essay on an online forum analysing the American movie's lack of appeal in China, according to the BBC.
The author, quoted by the BBC, goes on to make a stinging remark: "In reality, the US does not have superheroes and the US is not a peace-loving, peace-defending beacon for humanity."
One cinema in Sichuan province, said the BBC, reportedly decided to hold off screenings of Captain America 4 in its theatres "in order to support Ne Zha 2".
The news network, however, acknowledged criticism that Ne Zha 2, which premiered outside China this month, did not get enough screenings in North American cinemas. There have been accusations that American cinemas chose to show other movies rather than the Chinese film.
To be fair to US film critics, some of whom reliable and active in Oscar award presentation, they have hailed Ne Zha 2 as a big achievement in cinematic production and storytelling. The movie gets 8.3/10 on IMDB and 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, compared with 6.1/10 and 49% respectively for Captain America: Brave New World.
Pheu Thai denies conservatives' quid pro quo over charter
February 20, 2025: The ruling Pheu Thai Party has dismissed a suggestion linking its partners’ support for the Entertainment Complex to the charter reform delay.
The alleged quid pro quo was mooted by the opposition People’s Party in Parliament today. Party-list MP Parit Wacharasindhu said he wondered if there had been a “backdoor agreement regarding the casino and charter amendment.”
All of a sudden last week, the Constitutional Court’s past and widely-known ruling that the charter could be rewritten only after the public say they want changes was highlighted and led to disruptions of a parliamentary process that would kick-start a charter revamp immediately. Pheu Thai seemingly played a role in the delay that upset the People’s Party, which used to campaign alongside the ruling camp for major constitutional amendments.
“I would like to ask the prime minister how she would get all the coalition parties to agree on the Entertainment Complex without a backdoor agreement in which charter amendment and the casino were traded,” Parit said in Parliament.
Prasert Chantararuangthong, digital economy and society minister and deputy prime minister, responded to that. He insisted that Pheu Thai, by supporting calls for fresh Constitution Court opinions on public referendum and charter amendment, was only being cautious. He added that the Entertainment Complex was going through proper consultative procedures involving the entire Cabinet and the Council of State, and Parliament would be given full opportunities to debate the idea as well.
“There is no exchange whatsoever,” Prasert said. “What we (Pheu Thai) do regarding charter amendment was aimed at enabling everyone to vote without worries. From Day One of the Srettha administration until the time of the Paetongtarn government, we have been advocating constitutional changes.”
After all it has been through, the People’s Party has ground for suspicion. Pheu Thai, however, has ground to be really worried itself. Defying what the Constitutional Court says can pose a huge legal trouble, especially when you sponsor amendment bills.
When the question answers itself
February 19, 2025: Some Pheu Thai MPs are planning to ask the Constitutional Court if Parliament can rewrite the charter without asking the public first. That is like asking the parents whether they will change their minds and thus allow you to smoke.
The court had said a public referendum would be needed to kick-start a charter reform. This condition was a main reason why Parliament’s move to write a new Constitution was disrupted last week.
Simply put, some members of Parliament think the large-scale charter rewriting should go ahead regardless of what the court had said, while others think it would be against the law if Parliament fails to heed the court’s earlier ruling.
That’s a controversy. Both sides of argument have their points. But downright absurdity is the latest move by the Pheu Thai MPs unsure about legality of Parliament’s unilateral charter push. In effect, they seriously think there’s a possibility that the court will say “Our previous ruling was wrong and Parliament should go ahead and do it without a referendum.”
The curious Pheu Thai MPs are not a meaningless bunch or faction seeking to create troubles. They are at least recognised by PM’s Office Minister and deputy Pheu Thai leader Chusak Sirinil.
We can see a big paradox. If Parliament thinks the court’s opinion is irrelevant, why drag the judges back in again? Pheu Thai MPs asking the question is equivalent to saying that we respect your opinion, otherwise we wouldn’t ask for it in the first place. And if they respect the judges’ opinions, why do they have to ask the judges about something the judges had already given their opinions on before?
In other words, the planned Pheu Thai question sort of answers itself, doesn’t it?
Trump and USAID furore
February 18, 2025: The thin line between heroic fearlessness and autocratic idiocy continues to lengthen in the new White House.
Either the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is a badly-corrupt and ill-meaning organisation interfering with national political affairs of other countries, or President Donald Trump is unfairly and inexplicably cracking down on a noble network giving helps to foreigners who need them. This is a hot subject for debate right now.
The crackdown _ through the Department of Government Efficiency headed by billionaire Elon Musk _ features drastic financial cuts, termination of contracts, cancellation of projects and recalling of those working overseas. Many countries around the world are being affected.
A few pro- and anti-Trump reports have embodied the ongoing controversy, presenting both sides of the coin. In India, a prime ministerial adviser, angry with the USAID following the DOGE claims that some US funds were meant to influence “voter turnout in India”, has called the aid agency the “biggest scam in history.”
The DOGE, tasked with finding out alleged irregularities in US funding for humanitarian causes during the Biden administration, has announced that it had cancelled funds allocated for projects in various countries. Suspicious projects included $21 million for "voter turnout in India", $29 million for "strengthening political landscape" in Bangladesh, and $20 million for "fiscal federalism" in Nepal.
The DOGE claim on funds for India's "voter turnout" prompted the ruling BJP to flag "external interference" in the country's electoral process while a former chief election commissioner called it "baseless", according to India’s NDTV. The “biggest scam” remark came from Sanjeev Sanyal, an adviser to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, NDTV said. The member of the Economic Advisory Council to PM Modi is asking out loud who in India had received the $21 million funds.
Dozens USAID employees have sued Musk and his DOGE for unconstitutionally wielding extreme power in destroying agencies and accessing sensitive information, constituting a “government takeover.”
CNN has reported about alleged panic USAID workers experienced in the days after they were ordered to return from their assignments in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“Several employees, as part of a lawsuit filed by a group representing the agency’s foreign service members, painted harrowing pictures of their chaotic departures from Kinshasa amid violent protests in the capital city, as President Donald Trump’s administration ended certain foreign assistance programs and placed members of Washington leadership on leave leading to internal disarray and a lack of guidance for staff,” the network reported.
CNN said the directives in recent weeks for staff around the world to return to the US and employees to be placed on administrative leave came as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to freeze foreign aid and “dismantle the agency.”
Gossips about DOGE and USAID, America's largest "humanitarian" agency, have begun among Thailand’s conservatives.
Jatuporn to People's Party: Go for Paetongtarn only
February 17, 2025: The People’s Party is never strategically good when it comes to censure, so it is unlikely to heed a former red-shirt warrior’s advice.
Jatuporn Prompan thinks the party’s no-confidence offensive plan should not be a carpet bombing, and should instead focus intensely and solely on the prime minister.
He has a good point. Unless the People’s Party has clear-cut and earth-shattering information against certain individual ministers (like the Sor Por Kor scandal in the past), it should hit where it hurts, albeit the head of government.
“If you have two or three days and you fire randomly, you will not get anyone,” said Jatuporn. “You will just make them come together because everyone is a target.”
He pointed out that if the People’s Party really wanted to maximize the censure period, which will be four days at most, it should exclusively target Paetongtarn Shinawatra over key matters like the digital wallet scheme and special treatment of her father (the 14th floor controversy).
Jatuporn’s apparent best point is that Pheu Thai is now the People’s Party’s most direct and biggest rival. Attacking, say, the Bhumjaithai Party, won’t get the People’s Party anything because both camps have different fan bases anyway, meaning that even if the People’s Party managed to land the biggest punch on Bhumjaithai, the latter’s supporters would not change their minds and make a U-turn to become “orange.”
Softening up Paetongtarn, on the other hand, has the potential to turn a lot of reds into oranges, according to Jatuporn.
“If the People’s Party wants to grow, they must pick a fight (exclusively) with Pheu Thai. It’s as simple as that,” he said.
While his advice sounds sensible, it’s unlikely that the People’s Party will listen to it. The People’s Party, records show, will base its censure plan on information, not political expectations, and, judging from deputy party leader Sirikanya Tansakul’s announcement over the weekend, the policy would not change.
That is good in a way, but as Jatuporn says, it would be just a “waste of time.”
Where will he stop?
February 16, 2025: Ne Zha is smashing almost everyone, from Maverick (Top Gun) to Captain America to Simba (The Lion King).
The dinosaurs (Jurassic films) have also been swept aside, but Jake Sully (Avatar) and Jack and Rose (Titanic) should be safe for now, out of reach of the amazing Box Office powers of the Chinese animation bulldozing global movie records at the moment.
A Chinese film in the top 10 of all-time Box Office grosses used to be unthinkable, let alone top 5. Ne Zha II is breaking into the top 10 and hoping realistically to move past Avengers: Infinity War(6th) or even Star Wars: Episode VII - the Force Awakens (5th).
In China, Ne Zha II has brushed aside Star Wars: Episode VII - the Force Awakens as the biggest earner in a single market. Whether the latter’s global status (fifth on the all-time high list) will still stand depends on the next few weeks.
Monitored trends show Nezha II is becoming the world’s biggest-earning animation. It is now the only Chinese film in the top 100 of all-time global grosses but will stick out like a sore thumb if you work for the Hollywood. The Superman, Batman, Ironman, Wonder Woman, Captain Marvel _ you name it _ have bowed out unceremoniously. Harry Potter, Aquaman and Jack Sparrow (Pirates of the Caribbean franchise) are no match as well.
Individually, the Avengers stand no chance. As a group, they are holding sway in Endgame (2nd in all time Box Office) and Infinity War. They are looking back over their shoulders in Infinity War(6th), though.
Is it a hype infused with strong nationalism among the Chinese? Film critics and ordinary reviewers so far say it’s definitely not a hype, insisting that the real selling points are visual brilliance and moving storytelling that makes viewers laugh, cry and cheer through the entire show. The nationalism argument is countered by the fact that, even in China, a more patriotic presentation had succumbed easily to Star Wars: Episode VII – the Force Awakens.
Ne Zha’s adorable ugliness (full credit to the creator), boyish nastiness and his innocent yet determined fight against his own demonic destiny captivate hearts. Word of mouth is the biggest reason for the phenomenon. Filmgoers everywhere are casting politics aside to watch the Chinese product.
Politicisation is creeping in, though, and should be in full swing soon. Some say that the attempted assimilation of Chinese cultures into worldwide markets is poetic justice. There is no better way to spread cultures and ideas than using movies, and until Ne Zha, America had no challenger.
Big US "secrets" under threat
February 15, 2025: America’s House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform has shocked a lot of people. It has just announced an incredible plan to reveal the truth about some of the most enduring questions and government secrets in America.
According to the “Truth Movement”, which has relentlessly tried to change world opinions on the 9/11 event, the House committee’s efforts were aimed at launching fresh investigations into “the 9/11 files,” the origins of Covid-19, the Jeffrey Epstein client list, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs), unidentified submerged objects (USOs), and the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Dr. Martin Luther King.
“This will no longer be a task force that makes bold promises only to fade into irrelevance or send strongly worded letters,” committee member Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who has been named to head up a new task force within the House committee called the “Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets” said in her announcement this week.
“This will be a relentless pursuit of truth and transparency that will not stop until the American people have the answers they deserve.”
American architects and engineers doubting the official 9/11 narrative reported on their website www.ae911truth.org that Luna insisted the task force will be bipartisan and will work with various agencies within the U.S. government, including the White House, the Department of Justice, the Department of Defense, along with U.S. “intelligence allies.”
She was quoted as saying that hearings will start in March and that the JFK assassination will be the first subject addressed. The woman MP even indicated that she already has information pointing to two shooters being involved in the JFK assassination.
The fact that she is leading the task force will add to the worries of those worrying. She appears to be tenacious, outspoken and combatant. “If we’re to endure and thrive as a nation we must restore trust,” Luna said. “We’ve been treated like children for too long and kept in the dark by those we elected to serve us. Trust through transparency starts now.”
Here’s her warning to those in government who refuse to give up these secrets: “If I find that different entities in the various intelligence agencies are stonewalling us, I will make that known to the American people.”
There have been clear signs, speculation and rumours about what America's new President Donald Trump is trying to do. This looks like a part of the plan. Yet those convinced that big secrets have been hidden have seen too many "false promises" to be greatly excited.
Treat him the right way
February 14, 2025: The most important right now is not who the PM is or whether Thailand will have a new charter. What is of utmost importance is that the country’s political and justice systems must treat Bangkok MP Chaiyamparwaan Manpianjit’s case properly.
If he seeks to get _ and Parliament approves _ immunity that ordinary people cannot have, it won’t matter if Thailand will have the best Constitution in the world or is ruled by someone the “majority” wants.
Such immunity will be the most damning proof that Thailand remains firmly in the mud no matter what.
Parliamentary immunity is meant to deter political persecution by rivals. Sexual allegations made against him by a foreign tourist spending just a few days in Thailand is not political persecution. She can’t be politically motivated to press charges.
Claims emerging from his camp about police extortion are being countered by argument that the extortionists must be very foolish to mess with a Bangkok MP who surely has a lot of powerful connections.
All of this calls for a manly fight for justice, which Chaiyamparwaan must wage. No politician should hide behind parliamentary immunity in cases like this. Moreover, it concerns not just his image, but Thailand’s reputation as a whole.
While it's intriguing, don't expect anything earth shattering
February 13, 2025: The declassification of some formerly-secretive records on the John F Kennedy assassination is interesting, but “conspiracy theorists” have been told to hold their horses.
There is speculation, supported by some experts, that the new knowledge surrounding the political earthquake does not quite validate the official version of events, and that the declassified files could possibly lead ones to revisit alternate theories of how and why the president died. Yet everyone has agreed that the long-lasting narrative that he was fatally shot by lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald will still hold firm.
New US President Donald Trump is declassifying a lot of things including JFK assassination records. His presumed (or allegedly-baseless imagination about) “war against the Deep State” is adding spice to moves Trump has made. The JFK intrigue has also intensified following the confirmation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) this week that that it found around 2,400 new, inventoried and digitised documents related to the assassination, which it is now transferring to the US National Archives and Records Administration.
For over six decades, the JFK assassination has interested and fascinated historians, conspiracy theorists and ordinary civilians. All of them have been influenced to various extents by the fact that America is a country of conspiracy theories which seem to be bolstered more or less by scientific arguments which, despite all the official claims, have not been categorically debunked.
One of the reasons provided by those who think the newly-visible JFK records will never change the mainstream narrative is that if the lone gunman theory is proven to be untrue, it will upend the entire world, not just America.
What are they drinking?
February 12, 2025: First the casino and then loosening the liquor sale rules? Some government people must be highly intoxicated.
Here is hoping the liquor sale relaxation is just for consideration, a crazy idea that will be killed in the end. Drinkers and gamblers will find a way, so don’t help them. The same goes for business owners who become miserable during every ban period because they can’t legally sell liquor to tourists.
Think of projects that can really benefit the man on the street and his family, not something that would only please some business owners and people who like to drink every day.
Promote Thailand’s good cultures, not universal vice. Campaign for the world-renowned Thai foods. Tell the foreigners to come and see the Thai smiles, our beaches and trek in the mountains (and drink in their countries if that is so important to them).
Should we click or not?
February 11, 2025: In today’s world, the line between “click and you’ll know all” and “click and you’ll lose all” is extremely thin. The warning by America’s FBI that Gmail is under the most sophisticated attack ever is the case in point, depending on how much you trust the authorities.
Click if you dare, the FBI says this week, stating that the danger of AI-aided hackers taking over or stealing valuable personal information from your Gmail account has never been greater than now. There will be apparently-reliable accounts sending you mails asking you to click useful links and your trust will get the better of you. You realise your mistakes when it is too late.
Here’s the catch, though: If someone somewhere wants the flows of crucial information to grind to a halt or slow down remarkably, scaring clickers is a way to do it.
This does not mean you should distrust the FBI. Although the powers that be everywhere have a lot to hide, internet scammers are also proliferating at a phenomenal speed, so you defy the warning at your own risks. As Forbes says it in an article: “Ignoring this one simple piece of advice from the Federal Bureau of Investigation can be very costly indeed.”
This is to say that it’s getting more and more difficult to live, especially if your trust level is near zero.
What are Yingluck return factors Thaksin is talking about?
February 10, 2025: It is looking less certain former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra would return as early as the Songkran period, particularly following latest comments by her brother Thaksin Shinawatra.
He was talking vaguely about “factors” affecting the Yingluck return timing, initially speculated to be in April. He did not spell out what the factors are, so it’s up to the analysts to try to figure them out.
The assumption is that among key factors are the results of the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections, the “rock-and-hard-place” People’s Party’s situation, and the legal woes of Thaksin himself.
The election results were nowhere near overwhelmingly satisfactory as far as Pheu Thai is concerned. This means if Thaksin’s successful return could not trigger public enthusiasm leading to an electoral landslide, Yingluck’s homecoming could not be expected to deliver anything. It could even make things worse.
Meanwhile, “politically-persecuted” politicians returning home need the support of the parliamentary opposition and like-minded media to influence public opinions to accept what’s happening. The People’s Party could not come out to support Yingluck’s return for obvious reasons, although it is supposed to side with politicians treated “unfairly” by the system.
The lack of support means Yingluck will have only Pheu Thai’s backing. She cannot expect the conservatives, the People’s Party as well as the media on its side to welcome her with open arms. The People’s Party will stay on the fence watching Pheu Thai fighting the conservatives over if, how, and when Yingluck should come back.
And while Thaksin has evaded jail, albeit narrowly and controversially, earning him the nickname “Prisoner from heaven”, legal and political troubles regarding the “14th floor” are still hounding him. Simply put, it will be a lot harder for Yingluck, if she returns, to escape the prospects of being actually put behind bars. The same tactics that helped Thaksin stay away from actual jail will never work.
One man's bully is another man's victim getting even
February 9, 2025: Nothing gives a person two faces more effectively than politics. Either Donald Trump is the bravest true American cowboy out to get the “Deep State”, or he is a vindictive evil politician misguided by totally-wrong vendetta.
To his supporters, he is the former. To haters, he’s the latter. But was more than half of America fooled last November when it handed him and his political apparatus a decisive election victory?
It’s a question that will haunt his country and much of the whole world for the next four years. But his harsh trade and diplomatic policies are another matter entirely. What Richard Gere has just said in Spain seems to reflect a Republican-Democrat feud that amplifies the saying “One’s man terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.”
The 75-year-old American actor saw his country as a “dark place” where authoritarianism is on the rise and spreading to the rest of the world.
“We’re in a very dark place in America, where we have a bully, a thug, who’s the president of the United States,” said the man who received an International Goya Award, a major honour of the western film industry.
Whether that should be treated as a major international condemnation of Trump or as a bad advertisement of US democracy is debatable. Gere was insulting Trump, but should the voters who elected him be offended? Was Gere in effect telling the world that it should not trust American policies at least for the next four years?
Welcome to the confusing “free world”.
The anti-Trump rhetoric has it that he has now had the power to take down the “deep state” main characters who once opposed him — and almost sent him to prison. And immediately after he was sworn in as the US’s 47th president, his “vengeance” campaign was under way. He will move to crush perceived opponents in government, focusing on targets from intelligence agencies to the military, financial and business regulators, and within the law enforcement system itself.
The pro-Trump rhetoric portrays a former victim of political injustice who has now got a big mandate to bring down the deep-rooted and powerful apparatus responsible for that kind of persecution which led to massive deceptions and bad state policies that, before his resurgence, prevented America from being great again.
Is Trump a bully? Or is he a former victim seeking vengeance? Better still, is he a former victim turning into a bully?
Politics is fascinating everywhere, but a lot more so in the US.
China's stats, diplomatic pushes bad news for online scammers
February 8, 2025: With Beijing apparently getting serious, ethnic groups in Myanmar worried about their images and the Bangkok government under increasing pressure to act, border scammers’ world may be getting smaller, hopefully.
China is praising the Thai cooperation in the campaign against racketeers taking advantage of lawlessness or minimal law enforcement in some border areas, but a Thai news commentator is spot on. He said that praise in diplomacy can actually be polite pressure.
Simply put, Xi Jinping might in effect have told Paetongtarn Shinawatra, whom he has met: “Well done, but you could have done it a long time ago. Just keep going by the way.”
The diplomatic pushes are intensifying. Just a couple of days ago, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Southeast Asian countries to take strong measures to crack down on online gambling and telecom fraud. The official said "relevant" nations have to shoulder their responsibilities.
China Daily has also reported, quoting the Ministry of Public Security, that Chinese police investigated as many as 73,000 cross-border gambling and related cases last year, dismantling more than 4,500 online gambling platforms.
The police in addition disrupted multiple networks soliciting gamblers and underground banks in China, which had been operated for big gambling groups overseas, China Daily said.
There are plenty of other statistics and government records showing Beijing’s seriousness that must worry the gangsters. The Chinese ministry said more than 3,700 people suspected of engaging in cross-border gambling, including ringleaders, financial supporters and key members of the criminal groups, were repatriated back to or persuaded to return to China in a campaign last year.
According to China Daily, Chinese police are working closely with other countries to "squeeze the space to the greatest extent" for cross-border gambling crimes targeting Chinese residents.
Concern about security, international image and domestic popularity must be driving Beijing. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, which are south of China and share borders with Thailand, have become major centers of online scam operations. The bad people have lured naïve ones by false advertising of well-paid jobs and are based in secretive compounds at border seams from which online scams targetting all kinds of victims are initiated.
The Thai power cuts affecting Myanmar’s border townships seem to go well beyond an egoistic showdown between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai. The action must have something to do with China’s thinning patience, news analysts say.
As for ethnic groups, worries about their images might help explain, at least partly, why online gangsters keep relocating. But while the ethnic leaders may need a shadowy atmosphere to operate, China’s international status is fast rising, hence “grey” or downright-bad businesses are counter-productive.
In politics, perception is everything. Think of The Godfather Party III, when the Corleone family starts a business cooperation with the Vatican in order to rebrand.
China's animation on path to global history
February 7, 2025: Forget fast trains, skyscrapers, space races, diplomatic wars and covert military showdowns. Ne Zha 2 is challenging Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens.
The two superpowers’ competitions are virtually on every facet now, and the current attention is on whether/when the Chinese animation will shatter an American proud movie record.
Ne Zha 2, an adventure animation featuring a boy with magical powers and eye-catching martial arts skills, has just topped China's box office chart after overtaking the previous record holder 2021 war epic "The Battle at Lake Changjin" on Thursday. Its $820 million earnings and counting are sending Ne Zha 2 en route to a global history by becoming the highest grosser in a single market.
A Chinese analyst was quoted by the Global Times as saying that the film might gross 9.5 billion yuan ($1.3 billion). If that happens, which is quite likely because the film now is breaching the $900 million mark, Ne Zha 2, which started just days ago in China, would surpass Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' $936.7 million North American haul. That would be the first time a film has reached that benchmark in a single market.
It isn’t just a boasting right, mind you. Ne Zha 2 is underlining the rise of the Chinese film industry and everyone knows how important movies are nowadays when political or ideological pushes are concerned.
Trump and political tears for Gaza
February 6, 2025: Palestine does not deserve political hypocrisy at all levels, regardless of what one thinks about the new US president.
Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, sarcastic or serious, is outlandish, ridiculous even. But it’s not an infamy. The real act of evil took place in the area before he became president, when Israel launched what anti-Trump media are accusing him of planning to do _ an ethnic cleansing in Gaza.
Make no mistake, Trump’s idea, expressed to some extent to please Benjamin Netanyahu, is condemnable. But it was not Trump’s administration that vetoed a UN official condemnation of the Gaza atrocity. It was not his White House that turned a blind eye to mass killings of innocent women and children. He was not president when Israeli bombs were flattening Gaza.
Trump’s imagination can morph into a crime against mankind. The western media (every single one of them) are deploring it, but not rightly so, because the vilification is a lot stronger than when the Biden government triggered the veto.
Trump suggested the US should take over Gaza and resettle the 2.1 million Palestinians living there. The relocation would purportedly make his vision of creating "the Riviera of the Middle East” come true.
The Palestinian president immediately said no. But a lot of people who are shedding tears are those standing idly or issuing meek condemnation of Israel earlier.
Political tears bring anything but true peace.
United we stand
February 5, 2025: “Divided and we will fail” is the key message from the prime minister to her party following the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend.
Although Paetongtarn Shinawatra publicly said she was satisfied with the Pheu Thai Party’s performance at the PAO elections because its candidates won the most seats among all political parties, when talking internally with Pheu Thai members she was almost like the coach of the losing team in their dressing room.
During the post-election meeting with Pheu Thai MPs, she focused her criticism on disunity of Pheu Thai elements backing different candidates in some provinces.
“When we are united, we can win, as the results in a few provinces showed,” she told the meeting. “But we had conflicts in other provinces. We wouldn’t bend to one another. Our unity was broken. I would like to urge everyone to let go his or her ego for the party’s sake.
“We were split into three or four rival camps in certain provinces. That made our (the party’s) job very difficult. We needed to talk to all the camps. What we got was that the party could not reach its target. I would like to urge all of you to be firmly united, or the general election will be affected.”
Electricity fuss makes "call centres" issue more ridiculous
February 4, 2025: They don’t know how absurd that sounds.
Thailand and Myanmar are equally shamed in the “cut-the-power-to-call-centres” saga wreaking havoc at domestic, bilateral and border levels. But let’s forget about Myanmar at least for a while. Let’s temporarily ignore how, in the first place, Thailand and Myanmar came to endorse a business deal that must have involved both governments’ scrutiny because it concerned across-the-border electricity distribution. Let’s not ask why Myanmar could not crack down on illegal operations on its soil while it could earlier approve such an electricity transfer across the frontier.
Let’s focus on the egoistic political showdown between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.
Let’s ask why Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul were unable to settle the who-should-order-what question inside their Cabinet room and have had to question each other through the media.
Let’s speculate why the apparent tension is rising after the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend in which Bhumjaithai looked more as a thorn in Pheu Thai’s side.
Let’s dissect the advantages and disadvantages of the biggest coalition party untraditionally giving the Interior Ministry to a big “partner” although doing so could negatively affect key and urgent operations because the ego could always get in the way.
Abstention phenomenon
February 3, 2025: People not going to the polling booths is one thing, but people going there to declare they are not choosing anyone is absolutely another.
The phenomenal number of “No, I’m not casting my vote for any candidate” ballots in the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend may be considered a declining state of Thai democracy. But that assumption gives way too much credit to the politicians. It could be the other way round. The Thai democracy may be at its best ever.
All political parties will need to take a long, hard look at themselves. There were times when voters gritted their teeth and took their picks because they thought they did not have a choice. Saturday was disgruntled voters taking matters into their own hands and telling political parties “Enough is enough. I don’t like what you are having so you are not going to get my vote.”
In Nakhon Ratchasima, there were almost 111,000 abstention ballots cast out of a turn-out of some 1,155,000 voters. Chiang Mai had more than 57,600 “no” votes out of some 877,600 ballots counted. In Chiang Rai, out of 605,780 people who voted, more than 43,400 did not want anybody. The number in Songkhla was over 86,800. Samut Prakarn, which is supposed to have an overwhelming number of believers in democracy, registered more than 42,100 “I don’t want any of your choices” votes.
The trend went like this all over the country.
There have been talks about Thaksin Shinawatra losing his magic, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit not meeting high expectations, and conservative parties trying to hang in there somewhere and re-emerging with a bang somewhere else. What is equally worthy of analysis, though, is why so many voters rejected all candidates presented to them.
It’s not just happening in Thailand, mind you. People who did not go to vote in the last presidential election in America numbered more than popular votes won by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Of course, people have their reasons for not going to the polls, and the absentees could have taken their picks had they been able to vote, but the American number was staggering all the same.
Popularity survey adds to big parties' PAO woes
February 2, 2025: The People’s Party’s Provincial Administrative Organisation election disappointment is understandable, but what makes it more intriguing is a recent popularity survey carried out just before the weekend.
The party still leads in the North Bangkok University poll conducted between January 27 and 31, and the Pheu Thai Party still comes second, but neither camp can be pleased with the findings.
The Bhumjaithai Party, which did remarkably well in the PAO elections on Saturday, has a cause to celebrate although it comes third in the survey.
The North Bangkok Poll results go like this: Out of 1,500 Thais questioned, 20.3 % support the People’s Party whereas 16.4 % back Pheu Thai. Bhumjaithai gets 14.9%. United Thai Nation, which looked more of a threat to the People’s Party and Pheu Thai in an earlier popularity poll, only comes fourth, winning 7.1 % support, on par with the Democrats.
As we can see, in this poll, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai are not that far apart. Bhumjaithai is also within a striking distance of the champion of the last general election.
Absolutely jaw-dropping in the North Bangkok survey, though, is the “Not anymore” category. After all the backstabbing and ideological about-turn perceptions, one would expect Pheu Thai or any of the conservative parties to lead the table, but the findings are totally surprising. The shocks this time are across the board.
Some 54 % of people who used to support the People’s Party have changed their mind, topping this survey category. About 30 % of those who used to like Pheu Thai have stopped supporting it. Bhumjaithai’s admirers-turned-detractors are also numerous, or constituting 45 % of its support base, which makes its PAO achievements puzzling. United Thai Nation must be sweating, too, having seen almost 43 % of its fan base saying bye-bye.
Some findings explain what happened at PAO elections on Saturday, but others don’t.
Bt5 million bond is unnecessary
February 1, 2025: The minute the foreign minister entered the courtroom as a co-witness, Thaksin Shinawatra stopped being a flight risk.
If Thaksin did not return, his daughter’s government would collapse. It’s as simple as that. The bond of Bt5 million demanded by the Criminal Court which gave him the green light to travel to Malaysia was virtually unnecessary.
The presence of Maris Sangiampongsa, the foreign minister, was a bigger guarantee than anything, although it has become a subject of mockery and contempt. Not only would he have to resign if Thaksin decided to go into exile again, the whole government would be too shamed to continue.
But coming to really think about it, maybe Maris is also unnecessary. Considering that the prime minister is his daughter, whom he is trying to help in every way he can as a good daddy, that scenario (another exile, government demise, Pheu Thai’s election wipeout) will never happen. The co-witness thing was actually uncalled for.
Thaksin will return, or the daughter will stop talking to her father forever.
Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
