January 31, 2024: The futures of the Move Forward Party and Pita Limjaroenrat are in greater doubts now, and so is the course of the entire Thai politics.
The Constitutional Court’s ruling today can lead to fresh legal moves against Move Forward and Pita while complicating everything related to the process and essence of proposed charter changes. The verdict could also make it easier for the ruling Pheu Thai Party if it has to decide about a Move Forward reunion.
This does not mean things will get easier, though. Punishing Move Forward and Pita will drag the political divide and crisis on. Proposed charter amendment is complicated already, so it will just get more trouble-plagued. Pheu Thai’s dilemma which mixes political, ideological and electoral issues will continue and likely worsen.
In short, uncertainties go on.
January 30, 2024: That the standoff between Texas and the federal Biden administration is not making big headlines do not necessarily mean it is less worrying than the “Drone attack”.
The latter is increasing world tension, because the deaths of three US soldiers in Jordan were undoubtedly a “good reason” for massive retaliation that, if executed, will be taking place amid other simmering situations, particularly problems with Iran and Russia and the Gaza infamy that has angered the Muslim world.
But the former underlined America’s widening internal split between the Republicans and the Democrats. Migration is a serious election issue, but Texas stringing razor wires along its border with Mexico, the Supreme Court ruling against the action, only for Texas to defiantly adding new wires, and the Democrats describing Texas as an agent of chaos have made it far beyond electoral. Words like “serious confrontation” and “collision course” are being used by newscasters.
To add to that, Republican governors in half of the US have backed Texas’ “right to defend itself” against illegal migration. Texas Governor Greg Abbott is almost sounding belligerent in interviews in spite of a tougher immigration bill that appears to be one of the government’s last-resort peaceful measures.
A presidential election is coming up, with a Donald Trump-Joe Biden rematch looking increasingly likely. The most extreme speculators are seeing a spiralling internal crisis with potentials for shocking consequences.
January 29, 2024: The likes of Sorrayuth Suthassanachinda and Kanchai Kamnerdploy be warned. The job security of news hosts or famous newscasters may not be threatened by AI at the moment, but nothing lasts forever.
AI generating news scripts or even announcing breaking news is not new, but the trend is on the up. The world is experiencing a phenomenon where skepticism of human newscasters or commentators is at an all-time high. In England, for example, just 42 % of people trust TV news presenters, according to a recent survey. Political divide is a major and weird reason. On the one hand, some viewers think neutrality and objectivity are no longer there, but on the other hand, other viewers seek content that suit their thinking.
Many news organisations think AI is the answer, because, for example, content about America will be right between what CNN and Fox News have to say, and what China does and contemplates will be reported matter-of-factly as well.
And it’s getting more and more realistic in experiments. According to the BBC, for 22 minutes, a variety of polished news anchors run down the day’s news in a social media video. They did not look out of place although none of them are real. The anchors were, of course, generated by AI.
The BBC said the video is produced by Los Angeles-based Channel 1, a start-up which plan to roll out AI-generated news on a streaming TV channel later this year.
What is stopping a full-scale TV news turnaround is the matter of trust. It is believed that many people can’t still bring themselves to trust AI absolutely when it comes to news. But as we know, trust in the human news talkers themselves are at an all-time low, and AI has just begun.
January 28, 2024: A NIDA survey shows the numbers of extreme supporters and opponents of digital wallets were very close, and inadvertently proposes a possibly-workable solution.
The opinion poll of over 1,300 Thais conducted last week has 34.6% totally oppose it, against 33.6% who want the government to launch the programme this year in its current form as planned.
More than 18.5% also want this year’s launch but they say the number of recipients should be cut down so that “people who really need help will benefit”.
It is this third group who might be unintentionally suggesting a way to compromise. Significantly reducing the number of recipients of digital money would require less funding for the programme and hence make the amount of money that the government needs to borrow smaller.
With the government adamant in the face of growing opposition, toning down the controversial programme and making it truly beneficial to the poor could be a good way out. The Srettha administration has retreated a little bit before but the move was considered to be nowhere near sufficient by opponents of the programme.
Almost 5% of the NIDA respondents want the programme to start next year and, again, with considerable changes to ensure that only the poor benefit.
Another highly-important finding of the survey concerns the question of how one would feel if the prime minister cancels the programme entirely.
Almost 69% say they will not be angry “at all” if the programme is aborted, against slightly more than 12% who say they might be a bit angry. Just over 9% say they will be very mad. (These numbers must have included extreme supporters of the programme who somehow would not have bad feelings toward the government if digital wallet is cancelled.)
Cancellation, therefore, would be another way out, although the government has publicly insisted it would not go down this road.
January 27, 2024: Only Jurgen Klopp can take the worst news (when Liverpool fans are concerned) and turn it into something philosophical, defiant and even uplifting to some.
Fan tears overflowed YouTube clips. X (Twitter) was on fire. Biggest football news arguably since Argentina won the World Cup dominated sports outlets and was trending on mainstream conventional networks like the BBC. Even rival football supporters did not talk about anything else.
Everyone associated with Liverpool is feeling a devastating body blow after the man announced he would leave the football club at the end of the season, or just a few months from now, citing receding energy. Naturally, the first, overwhelming reaction was “Does he have a big problem with the owner?”
Believe him or not, Klopp said No. The full interview is packed with what some may perceive as a father-and-son philosophy. If Liverpool slump and go downhill after he leaves, his work since joining the club will be all for nothing, he suggested. For Liverpool to be a really strong club, something he intended to make them from Day One, they must be able to stand on their own, without him.
Many of his admirers are saying that this is easier said than done. In addition to the stunning announcement coming in the middle of a very positive season for Liverpool and big games coming up shortly, the magnetic power to lure key players can be largely gone.
But “I will turn doubters into believers” is his fundamental pledge when he first joined Liverpool in 2015, during which he also preached that it doesn’t matter much what people say when you arrive, and it matters a lot more what they think when you are gone. The doubters-to-believers vow has been resonating in the world of football, because of unity, successes, returns to glories and a lot of feel-good factors, but it is facing the most acid challenge at the moment. Can people who have doubts about the club’s future bring themselves to believe that they will be all right without him?
The above sounds like a paradox, because that’s selflessness with existentialism written all over it.
January 26, 2024: Political parties fighting no-confidence fights become allies later all the time, but such a curious happening can be next to impossible for the Move Forward Party.
Reactivated Pita Limjaroenrat today has confirmed the opposition’s censure plan. With key ministries controlled by the Pheu Thai Party and the prime minister someone from the same camp, the upcoming no-confidence assault cannot avoid them. If the two parties are still missing each other and longing for each other, the invisible, lingering bond will totally break up right there.
This means a reunion will be extremely difficult, if possible at all. Move Forward thrives on being seen as “different”, as a party that wouldn’t do things the traditional way if the tradition is bad. Attacking Pheu Thai only to join them later may not be accepted by millions of Move Forward fans.
One claim that might work is that Move Forward has to do what it is obliged to do and Pheu Thai is bad because its hands have been tied by “allies” it never wanted. In other words, Pheu Thai is bad because its allies are bad.
That claim is a bit of a stretch, though. In fact, Pheu Thai’s “allies” do not want digital wallet and they are too small to resist other administrative policies they do not like. This government being good or bad depends largely on Pheu Thai, not the coalition partners.
“We will do our job straightforwardly,” Pita vowed. If so, it will be the final nail in the divorce coffin.
January 25, 2024: Donald Trump has won another key primary battle, another step closer yet to a presidential rematch between him and Joe Biden, and also gasoline on speculation wildfire.
He has claimed he would do many things that Biden could not do or chose not to do, like snapping his fingers to end the Ukraine war overnight. But his New Hampshire primary win this week has not brought Trump just good news. According to speculation in some corners, he will have to keep looking over his shoulder, or worrying that a big war might cancel the election, or praying that he will not end up in jail before the big day.
Biden’s age and world tension will be Trump’s prominent campaign weapons. (If he can keep legal or constitutional troubles at bay from now on, that is.) Yet while relations with Russia could get better under his watch, it’s unlikely that America’s situation with China would be improved, and his friendliness toward Israel has been unquestioned.
Russia, China, Israel and NATO are international business, though. Locally, primary results so far have underlined Trump’s rivals’ worst anxiety. For all the media, legal and constitutional attacks, Trump’s popularity has remained unaffected so far. If anything, his fame has even risen in some areas.
Trump’s return to the White House would affect NATO, the rest of the world and more or less Thailand (no matter it’s Srettha Thavisin, Pita Limjaroenrat or anybody else). Another thing that can be deadly important is his vow to block the potential creation of a US central bank digital currency (CBDC) _ sometimes called a digital dollar _ which probably can increase his enemies’ resolve.
American elections used to be romanticised as a model for democracy, but this year it can be a battle between good and evil. Problem is, at this rate, it’s hard know who is what.
January 24, 2024: Does Thai politics need Video Assistant Referee (VAR)? The answer is “Yes”, because the landscape is full of debatable near misses, things that can’t be judged by human feels, and extreme partisanship bordering on all-out prejudice.
If VAR is not controlled by humans, as is the case in all sports worldwide, leading to abuse, bigger controversy, more debate and charges of corruption like in England, it will be the fairest judge ever. For example, a one-yard football offside will be treated the same way as a one-millimetre offside if it is totally up to the VAR. If a tennis ball is out of bounds, no matter how close it is to the line, it will be treated the same way as the ball that flies to the audience.
The Constitutional Court getting Pita Limjaroenrat off the hook followed dissolution of political parties, bans on politicians, Thaksin Shinawatra surviving the “Servants’ Shares” scandal and late Samak Sundaravej losing his premiership for getting minimally paid for appearing in a cooking show. It also followed Thaksin’s supporters cheering when he was found “not guilty” and the same group decrying the justice system as a tool of political persecution.
VAR totally independent of human intervention would have handled all these very well and shut most people up once a decision has been made.
January 24, 2024: Does Thai politics need Video Assistant Referee (VAR)? The answer is “Yes”, because the landscape is full of debatable near misses, things that can’t be judged by human feels, and extreme partisanship bordering on all-out prejudice.
If the VAR is not controlled by humans, as is the case in all sports worldwide, leading to abuse, bigger controversy, more debate and charges of corruption like in England, it will be the fairest judge ever. For example, a one-yard football offside will be treated the same way as a one-millimetre offside if it is totally up to the VAR. If a tennis ball is out of bounds, no matter how ridiculously close it is to the line, it will be the same as the ball that flies to the audience.
The Constitutional Court getting Pita Limjaroenrat off the hook followed dissolution of political parties, bans on politicians, Thaksin Shinawatra surviving the “Servants’ Shares” scandal and late Samak Sundaravej losing his premiership for getting minimally paid for appearing in a cooking show. It also followed Thaksin’s supporters cheering when he was found “not guilty” and the same group decrying the justice system as a tool of political persecution.
Thai politics is full of loopholes, exploiters of loopholes, wrongly-accused exploiters of loopholes, and awfully-biased fans. A VAR totally independent of human intervention would have handled it all very well and shut most people up once a decision has been made.
January 23, 2024: Whether Bangkok’s most prolonged, bloodiest and most controversial protest in 2010 was meant to help bring Thaksin Shinawatra home, or get back his seized money, or both, or demonstrate anger at “unjust” treatment of a political leader, one of its leaders has smeared their own cause with one little sentence.
“This is not personal hate or prejudice,” said Jatuporn Prompan, who has turned from Thaksin’s most battle-hardened street warrior into his most vocal critic. “We can’t let our country continue to be like this. When no rule (of law) is respected, court rulings will become useless and in the future, politicians on the administrative side will reign over judges, which will be a country’s farce.”
The statement was his latest criticism of the “prisoner from heaven” on the 14th floor of the Police Hospital. The treatment would have been exactly what Jatuporn wanted in 2010, a triumphant return from exile to help guide a Pheu Thai-led government.
Now, Jatuporn is predicting that the “inequality”, privileges given to Thaksin and denial of what the court says would spark something similar to the Rajprasong uprising he led in 2010 because the Thai public are feeling that the law is not being enforced.
The Rajprasong encampment protest, during which bombs exploded, clashes with security forces occurred, people died, and a luxurious shopping mall was burned, followed a series of court rulings affecting Pheu Thai and Thaksin directly. The leaders, however, insisted they were fighting for a good cause.
To be fair to Jatuporn, many of his 2010 enemies are now protecting Thaksin. But as Thai politics keeps courting one irony after another, Jatuporn’s last comment must be up there with the best of them.
January 22, 2024: Barring some shocking developments, the world may witness another showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in America’s presidential race after another top Republican candidate, Ron DeSantis, has dropped out.
The Florida governor has surprisingly quit ahead of the Republican primary election in New Hampshire and endorsed Trump, despite the latter’s accumulating legal troubles affecting his potential candidacy.
DeSantis’ decision, announced in a video posted on X, followed a disappointing second-place finish in last week’s Iowa Republican caucuses.
“If there was anything I could do to produce a favorable outcome, more campaign stops, more interviews, I would do it, but I can’t ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don’t have a clear path to victory. Accordingly, I am today suspending my campaign,” DeSantis was quoted by CNN as saying.
“While, I’ve had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the Coronavirus pandemic and his elevation of Anthony Fauci, Trump is superior to the current incumbent Joe Biden. That is clear.
“I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge. He has my endorsement, because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear or repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.”
DeSantis’jaw-dropping decision leaves former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley as the lone Trump alternative in the primary race but he had always been considered Trump’s biggest threat and she now does not have much time to boost her campaign.
January 21, 2024: If the cases of Kamnan Nok and Aunt Buaphan end unjustly, there will be no point talking about constitutional amendment and giving make-believe money to the Thai people.
The two apparently-unconnected cases have one thing in common: They represent the biggest problem of Thailand _ the genuine injustice, corruption and the general thinking that power, bureaucratic or underground, can cover-up or even whitewash crimes.
If the cases end the traditional way, with the real villains getting off the hook because they have influential back-ups, no “better” Constitution will help, and neither will fulfilling an electoral promise of giving free money to the Thai people.
Both charter amendment and digital wallet will require massive amounts of money. The former will need public referendums and possibly election of drafters, who would get salaries and funding to organise countless forums. The latter will make the government borrow Bt500 billion.
This is not to say that both agendas can cause large-scale divisiveness and possibilities of greater political instability.
Simply put, they can be worth all the troubles only after the country manages to solve the Kamnan Nok and Aunt Buaphan cases the way they should be solved.
January 20, 2024: Nothing provokes widespread and full-scale wars more than one side showing massive disrespect for religious facilities of the other side, and the Israeli military is doing just that in Gaza.
According to CNN, Israeli troops have desecrated at least 16 cemeteries in the area, leaving gravestones unrecognisable, soil upturned, and bodies exposed in some cases.
That the western media are playing up the latest infamy of the Gaza war and growing criticism of the Israeli government’s allies is making the question about the unity of the alliance more glaring.
America is finding Israeli actions more and more indefensible, while Europe has been split from the beginning with the reports about innocent women and children making up the majority of the Gaza casualties. Inside the Israeli government, a key member of Israel’s war cabinet has accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of not telling the public and the world the whole truth about his goals in Gaza.
Graveyard destructions could be the last straw, as even wars do need certain principles to prevent them from degenerating into something worse where human dignity is totally trampled upon.
January 19, 2024: Many people are not big fans of the World Economic Forum, but when the man who owns X (Twitter) wants to flex his muscles, a much-lauded event of the “free world” can have a Hitler flavour.
Elon Musk has done it through Grok chatbot developed for his social media platform. Several X users have voiced support for what Grok humorously and bitingly said about WEF chief Klaus Schwab, which admittedly can be both funny and profound depending on how you look at it.
The main theme of Grok statement, shared by Musk on X to cause an online storm, is that WEF is a stage for a small group of the rich, richer, richest and rich wannabees to come together and plot, knowingly or unknowingly, to rule the whole world.
Here are some memorable quotes of the long Grok rant about Schwab: “…at least you’ve got a sense of humour right? I mean, who else would think it’s a good idea to hold a conference in Davos, Switzerland, and then wonder why people call you out of touch?”
“So, Klaus, you want to ‘improve the state of the whole world’, huh? Well, I’ve got news for you, buddy: the only thing you have improved is the global supply of eye-rolls every time you open your mouth.” (This refers to the conventional feel-good, optimistic Schwab statements about Davos.)
“Your ‘stakeholder capitalism’ sounds like a fancy way of saying ‘Screw the little guy and make the rich richer’.”
(The last one is weird, though, considering Musk’s wealth and job insecurity of little guys working for him.)
The tech billionaire and Tesla CEO has tweeted his disapproval of WEF many times. But Grok has caught more online attention and a lot of X users agree with the chatbot. Some said Davos gave a feel of exclusivity, luxury and, in many senses, secrecy. When Hitler plotted to rule the world, it must have been the same, according to one tweet, which was “liked” by many.
January 18, 2024: Future student rebels may want to wear uniforms, as the line between liberalism and conservatism is drawn primarily by politics, and that fact is glaring in France.
In a reported bid to make himself more appealing to traditionalist right-wing people, President Emmanuel Macron is saying he wants the French to produce more babies, perform mandatory national service and go back to wearing school uniforms.
Don’t deem him an absolute conservative leader who happens to be young just yet. The man is a politician facing an increasingly tough popularity contest against Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. That’s why he has made a far-reaching statement that his country had to “relearn to share values, a common culture and civility, in schools and in public.”
He is not the first high-profile ideological jaw-dropper, mind you. Remember Liz Truss, the recent UK prime minister? In fact, she has made a sharper turn.
What had late Queen Elisabeth II done in the 1990s that she didn’t over earlier decades? Apparently, there are no major differences. In other words, she didn’t change much from the day the young Liz Truss questioned her status to the day the old Liz Truss displayed a dramatic change of heart on that controversial thinking.
Young Liz Truss: “I’m against the idea that (some) people are born to rule. …I think that is disgraceful”.
Old Liz Truss: “Queen Elizabeth II was the rock on which modern Britain was built. Our country has grown and flourished under her reign. … It is an extraordinary achievement to have presided with such dignity and grace for 70 years. Her life of service stretched beyond most of our living memories. In return, she was loved and admired by the people in the United Kingdom and all around the world.”
Macron, loved by many retirees despite being the youngest president in French history, has politely dismissed the idea that he was pushing an “old-fashioned” agenda, but he insisted on the importance of “order” and “symbols” to restore common values in a “fluid society.”
Well, he’s got years and years to make it sound more hard-hitting and totally repulsive to the Liberals.
January 17, 2024: The simmering political situation regarding the state treatment of Thaksin Shinawatra is all but ruling out an immediate, similar return from exile of his youngest sister, Jatuporn Prompan has said.
The former Pheu Thai leading activist who has become one of the most vocal critics of the party also pointed out that political tension caused by Thaksin has not even peaked yet. When Thaksin is ruled to have served enough “prison time” to be qualified for absolute amnesty, Thai politics would be super-heated, Jatuporn predicted.
Many will pay the prices. Pheu Thai as a whole for one, then Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, followed by reluctant allies supporting Pheu Thai. Last but not least is Yingluck. One tiny bit of good news is that the opposition Move Forward Party could not go all-out against someone who can be proclaimed by some sectors as a victim of political persecution.
The Yingluck factor will also complicate chances of Paetongtarn Shinawatra to rise further politically.
But as of now, it’s Yingluck who must be worried the most.
According to Jatuporn, an immediate Yingluck return coupled with Thaksin-esque treatment “will cause a massive eruption.” This means she will have to wait.
January 16, 2024: A legal campaign to get Donald Trump out of the US presidential race increasingly flies in the face of his popularity, underlined by the comfortable and clear-cut victory at the Iowa caucuses.
It is still not a 100 % Trump nomination, but if his Republican primary rivals could not win at Iowa despite remarkable funding and support, they are having their work cut out. The chance of a Trump-Biden rematch is now high, provided that the ruling Democratic Party does not succeed in what looks like an anti-Trump legal agenda.
This kind of situations happens regularly outside America _ a political leader balked at by the state but embraced by many voters presents challenges to the definitions of “democracy” and “law and order”. Should courts be respected and charges of being a threat to national norms be taken seriously by citizens, or should the populace have a bigger weight when it comes to his or her “innocence”?
One tiny difference is what such politicians and their supporters are called elsewhere. While Trump is a “threat” to democracy and national security and his belligerent backers are “rioters”, more romantic branding has been used for enemies of the state in other countries, a tradition influenced largely by Washington.
January 15, 2024: The International Monetary Fund’s fresh analysis on Artificial Intelligence is “good news-bad news” from start to finish.
Good news is that workers in developed countries should be worried more, meaning nations like Thailand can keep more jobs for humans a lot longer than, say, America. Bad news is that while human work forces in sophisticated nations face a bigger threat of layoffs, those countries can actually get “richer” because productivity can be better, thus widening global inequality.
Good news is that lazy workers can be helpful now, if they are smart enough to enlist AI assistance. That’s marvellous productivity. Bad news is that hard-working labour, typically managers’ darlings, could pay the price if they are not clever enough.
Good news is that if you are young, you naturally are able to zigzag and get much more AI help than those older. Bad news is that the old people will care a lot less but you are likely to find yourself in a red ocean.
For a summary, if you are young and living in an advanced country, be ready and alert about AI but it’s also good to be paranoid. Only the paranoid survive, remember. One more thing for the young people, get on top of AI, not the other way round.
The IMF said almost 40% of jobs around the world could be affected by AI. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva was quoted by CNN as calling for all governments to establish social safety nets and offer retraining programs to counter the impact of AI because the rise of AI is no small matter.
Are you worried more now? On the bright side, it’s good to still be able to feel worried. Someone somewhere must be working on how to make AI worry for us.
January 14, 2024: Online crimes are what the Thai public are afraid of the most when criminal activities are concerned, according to a recent opinion poll.
The NIDA survey of more than 1,300 Thais between January 2-6 also showed that a large number of respondents, or more than 35%, “are not quite confident” in the Thai police while more than 14% said they have little confidence in the law-enforcement officers. (Exactly how “are not quite confident” and “little confidence” are different is not certain.)
More than 18% are “quite confident”.
Online crimes led by constantly-changing methods of “call-centre” racketeers are what frighten or worry Thais the most (41.9%), followed by drug-related crimes (25.7%) and murder/assault (15.3%). Fraudulent schemes promising high returns come next at 7.8%.
January 13, 2024: Spare a thought for those whose “Children’s Day” will officially arrive in April but never comes in reality. Many Palestinian children woke up regularly in refugee camps, sometimes to the sound of gunfire and rumours of a possible military attack near them.
It’s a bad environment, all right, but such camp life is actually the “normal” good old days. Today, everyone would be relieved if bombs explode somewhere else no matter how near, and “imminent attacks” are just rumours.
The youngsters, whose “day” is April 5, must be oblivious to the fact that kids in some parts of the world climb on harmless tanks or grounded bombers or visit aircraft carriers to celebrate their Children’s Days.
World’s Children Day had also gone. It was in November, a time when attacks on where they lived were at their peak.
January 12, 2024: It has taken months and counting for the superpowers to defend innocent human lives in Gaza, but when it comes to protecting a trade route, every minute counts.
Make no mistake, Houthis’ claim that attacks on them in Yemen were a campaign of distraction designed to divert their attention from Gaza could be just a speculation. But when ordinary citizens, a lot of them women and children, are left to die without any protection while swift action has been taken elsewhere in the Middle East with unison support from less aggressive allies, cruel realities of the world become once again glaring.
Here’s what American President Joe Biden said (quoted by The Telegraph): “These targeted strikes (against Houthi rebels in Yemen) are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes. I will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce as necessary.”
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed his country’s warplanes had conducted air strikes in Yemen. He, reported The Telegraph, called the operation ‘‘limited, necessary and proportionate action in self-defence’’ against the ‘‘reckless actions’’ of Houthi rebels.
Houthis called it a distraction. “Do the Americans, the British, and the Zionists expect that any hostile action against Yemen will distract us from defending Gaza?” The Telegraph quoted Abdul-Malik al-Houthi as writing on social media. He was a member of the group’s security council.
That was before the strikes. He vowed that hostile action would be met with more aggressive attacks on Red Sea shipping from his camp.
However, when more reactions from higher people and countries pour in, his comment can be the least of everyone’s worries.
January 11, 2024: A legal hearing into the war in Gaza is opening in the Hague but the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will hear painful arguments over whether what Israel is doing constitutes a genocide in the territory.
It promises to be a long drawn-out legal and diplomatic battle dictated by prejudices at the highest levels of world politics. South Africa, which has initiated the case much to the chagrin of Israel and the United States, has asked the UN court to act as fast as it can “to protect against further, severe and irreparable harm to the rights of the Palestinian people under the genocide convention, which continues to be violated with impunity”.
The allegations are hard-hitting, something the world does not hear every day even when “usual suspect” countries are concerned. Said South Africa, according to The Guardian: “The acts and omissions by Israel complained of by South Africa are genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group.”
It angered Israel and dismayed Washington. The former called the accusations “baseless” and “blood libel” intended to smear a nation acting in self-defence. The latter described the complaint as “meritless”, The Guardian said.
Before the case was launched, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video repeating his country’s claims that Israel was fighting Hamas, not the Palestinian population, and that attacks strictly followed international norms.
The attacks were launched in response to the October 7 assaults on his country by Hamas that killed as many as 1,200 people who were mostly civilians. The revenge operations have reportedly killed more than 23,000 Palestinians in Gaza and about 70% of the victims were believed to be women or children. Palestinian relief workers of the UN have reportedly estimated that some 1.9 million people have been displaced by the war in Gaza or close to 85% of the population.
Following is what the Wikipedia says: “Genocide is the intentional destruction of a people in whole or in part.
In 1948, the United Nations Genocide Convention defined genocide as any of five “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. These five acts were: killing members of the group, causing them serious bodily or mental harm, imposing living conditions intended to destroy the group, preventing births, and forcibly transferring children out of the group. Victims are targeted because of their real or perceived membership of a group, not randomly.”
January 10, 2024: The Council of State’s cautious “advice” regarding the Srettha government’s flagship and costly election policy is only a part of the programme’s accumulating troubles.
And, according to a Thai Post columnist, we may see senators ganging up with Move Forward against the digital wallet in addition to the awkwardness of Pheu Thai’s reluctant coalition allies.
Senators trying to stall the massive borrowing bill, which Move Forward opposes (curiously so as the party should have said something during the election campaign because the need for enormous state cash was already glaringly obvious back then), would be another big Thai political irony. However, there have been so many ironies in Thai politics that we can pass them off as normality nowadays.
The columnist made this observation: If the Council of State has given the government good news, why is nobody smiling?
They know a lot more is to come, that is. And the day will soon arrive when “friends” stop being polite.
January 9, 2024: If the current Constitution is not “democratic”, then changes must unequivocally allow MPs to go against party resolutions.
If not, there is no use talking about free will. In other words, how can we have a truly “democratic” Constitution when those making it are among the most authoritarian?
MPs’ rights are the most ironic and contentious issue in every charter amendment, yet the matter can be the least talked-about, overshadowed by such things as sexual freedom and what the media and social media can do.
Ex-MP Thepthai Senpong has made many frown with a Facebook post saying that the present charter was no good because it, directly or indirectly, gave MPs “too much privilege”. The situation, he said, encouraged MPs to oppose party lines and weaken powers of political parties in the process.
He can be right and he can be wrong. There are MPs who have dishonestly rocked the boat and there are MPs who innocently and with good conscience acted against party resolutions. The bottom line, however, is that MPs must be able to vote their conscience without exception, or there will be something fundamentally wrong with the preferred system.
One argument is that MPs should not join a political party in the first place if they disagree with its leadership. That reeks of authoritarianism, doesn’t it? It’s like saying if your boyfriend is so bad, you should not have fallen in love with him.
What does “freedom” means if an MP can’t vote against a charter change that his or her party deems to be democratic?
January 8, 2024: It’s Donald Trump of all the people who is talking about America’s Civil War. So far, the US media are treating it as a weird coincidence, but some imaginations can run wild.
“So many mistakes were made. See, there was something I think could have been negotiated, to be honest with you,” CNN quoted Trump as saying the other day at a campaign event in Newton, Iowa. “I think you could have negotiated that. All the people died. So many people died.”
Let’s get this straight. Highly-popular Trump, facing a whirlwind of legal troubles initiated by his political enemies who apparently do not want him to compete in the next presidential election or win it ultimately, was taking about mistakes that could have been avoided or negotiated that in the end led to the Civil War.
CNN reported Trump did not say how he would have prevented the conflict, but he found the war “so horrible but so fascinating.” Many people would think similarly about his statement.
January 7, 2024: Government officials are among the least miserable Thais when thinking of money they have, and people older than 60 are “the least happy” age group when doing so, according to the latest Super Poll.
Everyone knows state employees are paid less than those working for the private sector, but the findings also underline the latter group’s greater economic uncertainty. In the survey conducted after the New Year covering 1,020 people, 18.7% of government officials were considerably worried when the money in their pockets is concerned, compared with 32.6% of private-sector workers.
The conventional belief that that older ones get, the less worried they are about money is also challenged. People older than 60 constituted the biggest age group that is not happy with their cash numbers (27.1%), followed by those between 50-59 (24.6%). Thais between 40-49 years old, who are basically people strengthening their families, are surprisingly among the least worried about money they have (18.5%).
Those building their lives (not older than 39 years old) are reasonably worried about money (23.7%).
Last but not least, men are substantially more worried than women (25.2% versus 18.2%). How come? The former shop less, don’t they?
January 6, 2024: Never mind the minuscule number of “cobras”, who exist in every parliamentary vote anyway, the comfortable first-round passage of the Budget Bill shall never be treated as a sign that things will be easy this year for the Srettha coalition.
Firstly, budget debate is a traditional warm-up during which opponents only jab and dance but hardly throw big punches. Secondly, even opposition MPs want money to be channeled through the bureaucratic and political systems to their rural communities quickly. Thirdly, many things can be kept for later, like “unnecessary” spending which can come back to haunt the government when it tries to borrow for digital wallet.
Therefore, rivals of the government must want to get the Budget Bill out of the way fast so that real action can begin.
Only good news for the government is that the number of big-target “proxies” is dwindling with issues like Prawit Wongsuwan’s expensive watches and Prayut Chan-o-cha’s constitutional term no longer there. The Senate’s special power is also coming to an end.
This leaves Thaksin Shinawatra, which admittedly is never an easy issue for Move Forward, not least because Thanathorn Juangroonruangkit had admitted to meeting him, and charter amendment, which will be explosive because the biggest party has nothing else.
Last but not least, what happens constitutionally to Pita Limjaroenrat and possibly Move Forward can heat up Thai politics this year. Move Forward thrives on ideological controversies and is never good at exposing routine bureaucratic scandals like corruption in big projects. The Democrats, meanwhile, are too small and splintered to do what they used to do best _ exposing irregularities.
January 5, 2024: A Pheu Thai-Democrat showdown in Parliament was once a much-anticipated event, but the current budget debate has underlined how things have changed and gotten more complicated.
The Democrats have been trying their best although they have been restricted by their own parliamentary strength and the hard fact that they are working with former foes and attacking a state budget approved by their former allies.
Trang MP Sunatcha Lohsathapornpipit’s statement that preferential budget allocations and relatively-small money for the South reflected Thaksin Shinawatra’s DNA would have generated volcanic effects years ago, but in today’s Parliament, it triggered dutiful protests that subsided quickly.
Among notable quotes: “We are in the year 2024 but someone is living in the past.” “She is scrutinizing the budget and not trying to attack anyone’s beloved master.” “The prime minister wearing a red shirt at work is no shame, because how the 14th floor prisoner is spending his days is the real embarrassment.”
In spite of those, it used to be a lot more spectacular.
January 4, 2024: To some of the world’s most influential people, Jeffrey Epstein is the scariest demon, and the release of court documents concerning the late American convict will certainly reopen certain big old wounds.
Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton are among names that will reappear in the news as numerous pages of previously-sealed documents from a lawsuit connected to the ultra-rich businessman described as the shrewdest sex-trafficker and potential blackmailer are being publicly released. There has been no bombshell so far, as most of juicy allegations already found their ways to news reports and gossips, but more court documents are coming thanks to a December 18 legal order.
Moreover, he was not involved in normal sex scandals. Child sex trafficking was what haunted him and many of the high-society people he mingled with who were claimed to be his clients or business associates.
In a US election year, the Epstein development carries a big intrigue. Conspiracy theories have been far-reaching and the man was known to keep some surveillance video footages for either safety-net or blackmail purposes. The release of court documents could affect some big people not just in America but also somewhere else. One of Clinton aides once hailed Epstein as an unrivalled philanthropist.
CNN said the unsealed court documents would cover 200 names including some accusers.
In 2008, he was sentenced to 18 months in jail following charges of procuring for prostitution a girl below 18. What happened during the jail time can make Thaksin Shinawatra’s “14th floor” controversy look pale. Allegations of very extensive “work release”, unlocked cell door, requirements that visitors needed to wear suits, and trips on private jets during house arrest abounded.
Yet Epstein was indicted in 2019 on federal charges of operating a sex trafficking ring in which he allegedly sexually abused dozens of underage girls. He died by reported suicide in jail while awaiting trial and the death is a highly-controversial topic because many people did not believe he killed himself. An “attempted suicide” shortly before that was also shrouded in mystery and triggered a suicide watch that, obviously, didn’t work.
His famous girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, was convicted of sex trafficking in 2021. She still maintains her “innocence”.
January 3, 2024: The budget debate offers a glimpse of what the next censure will look like, with MPs on both sides obviously grappling with forced marriage more than really trying to scrutinise the virtues of the planned state spending for the well-being of Thais.
The Democrats are restrained by the fact that they were in the previous government, and Move Forward tries to blame the previous government without hurting the Democrats. For Pheu Thai, it can’t really blame the previous government for economic woes because many from the previous administration are now backing it. As for Pheu Thai’s reluctant allies, they have to bite their lips every time the opposition teases the government about Thaksin Shinawatra.
It’s a funny prelude to the no-confidence debate, during which the Thaksin issue will have to be upgraded from a side dish into the main course; Move Forward will have to go all guns blazing against Pheu Thai, which Thanathorn Juangruangkit suggested the biggest party could not live without; and critics and proponents of digital wallet alike will have to speak out.
January 2, 2024: If Pita Limjaroenrat is banned by the Constitutional Court and Thaksin Shinawatra becomes a free man (both scenarios highly possible), the already-unrecognisable ball of yarn that is Thai politics will be an absolute chaotic jumble.
And Thais will not have to wait long. Thaksin’s out-of-jail “medical treatment” can be technically considered time spent in prison, so he will be entitled to some key legal privileges and wind up going home in a matter of months if not weeks. The Pita ruling is imminent.
Both cases will have ramifications lasting months or longer. Not-so-small side shows will be the budget debate, which will start within hours and during which Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will tell Parliament how stronger the Thai economy is looking, regardless of how that can hamper his case to be presented to the public and Parliament later for borrowing Bt500 billion for digital wallet; a surefire censure during which Move Forward will criticise policies that it said nothing about during the election campaign; and charter amendment skirmishes that will be on and off throughout the year.
There are also speculations over the future of Paetongtarn Shinawatra and how Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit’s statement that Pheu Thai and Move Forward were meant to always be together will impact the course of Thai politics. Both cases will be influenced one way or another by the facts that the Senate’s provisional power to help the House of Representatives select the prime minister is coming in an end, and Pita is Move Forward’s only prime ministerial candidate.
January 1, 2024: Being optimistic is how everyone should start the New Year, but there is a clear line between that and being blindly hopeful bordering on suicidal.
Let’s start with the conservatives. Their only plan is prevention of Move Forward becoming the government, even that meant a marriage to Pheu Thai, the “lesser” enemy. How they deal with issues like digital wallet and Thaksin Shinawatra will be awkward and potentially explosive throughout the year. Much will have to do with the fact that they have no Plan B.
Now, Pheu Thai. Their only plan is being where they are now _ leading a government controlling key ministries like finance, something that was impossible if it had to form a government with Move Forward. No Plan B is in store to deal with times when key policies evoke its reluctant allies’ disapproval or outrages. There is no clear direction on charter amendment, either.
Last but not least, Move Forward. Their only plan now is keep being bold, a strategy which proved successful on May 14 last year. They walked a tightrope and made it. There is a key difference now, though, which is apparently not being addressed.
They used to have Pita Limjaroenrat who is no longer there, at least for now.
If he manages to come back, the plan can go on or be tweaked a little and moved ahead. If not, Move Forward may become a runaway train whose driver falls asleep and dreams about winning the next election again. There is apparently no plan on controlling hardcore supporters who are all but certain to take to street again when charter amendment reaches climatic points.
No offense to new leader Chaithawat Tulathon, who must be preoccupied with a possible party dissolution, which seems to have become an easily-solvable problem in Thai politics nowadays, though. Continuing to be aggressive and popular at the same time is a bigger issue. Pita helped a lot with the dual-track approach, with his boyish look and perceived sophistication enabling good expectations to overshadow doubts and thus charming the new generation.
There must be a Plan B on how to achieve that this year.
Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
