January 31, 2025: Conspiracy theorists sometimes call themselves “seeds”. It means their thoughts can be mocked, devalued or belittled, but they never die. And given the right conditions, they can jump from scarce to fully grown and abundant.
Those pushing for reinvestigation of the case that shocked Thailand in 2022, the death of actress Nida Patcharaveerapong, are fighting powerful rhetoric, which describes them as nutcases and uses the popular word “debunk” to discredit their theories.
They are challenging state authorities who have the support of legal conclusions which are generally taken at face value.
But the conspiracy theorists are armed with something more powerful than official narratives _ human suspicion. “Freedom” is not just the right to speak what one thinks, but also the right to “suspect” and talk about it.
And in the actress case, even the loudest of state narratives as well as ordinary men supporting them cannot shut down suspicion which is all aplenty. The benefit of the doubt is often used by lawyers to get the bad guys off the hook, but it’s time to give the Tangmo “conspiracy theorists” the benefit of the doubt.
They have the right to, say, wonder why a person falling off the rear of a speedboat moving rapidly forward got injured by the propeller. They have the right to wonder about many things else, scientifically and logically.
Thailand’s law-enforcement and justice system works fast in the case of Kamnan Nok, but a lot of things remain to be seen in the big picture, and one of them is how the system treats the actress’ death.
Those saying no to the demand for Tangmo reinvestigation only need to remind themselves that people believing that the earth is round were once a minuscule community of conspiracy theorists subjected to something much worse than being ridiculed.
First baby step
January 30, 2025: The life sentence cannot be immediately judged, because nobody knows the eventual outcome of the Kamnan Nok case just yet.
Knowing Praween Chanklai, aka Kamnan Nok, and the manner of the crime that took place inside his house in 2023, it probably is not over yet. The case represents a fight between Thailand’s infamous law-enforcement and justice systems and what has made them infamous. In spite of the Criminal Court verdict, many things can still happen.
Before Pol Maj Siwakorn Saibua of Highway Police Division 2 was killed in exceptional circumstances at Kamnan Nok’s dinner party, a blatant murder reportedly witnessed by several police officers, many of them senior, the accused mastermind had reportedly done many things highly questionable. Allegedly and on separate occasions, he made senior police officers strip almost naked “for fun” at one of his “parties”, fired celebratory shots into the sky, conducted controversial business activities, listened proudly to “Happy Birthday to you” sung respectfully by senior bureaucrats and built up a suspected bribery payroll.
Because of the Sivakorn incident, Thais came to a realisation that, very gross and obvious as they were, rural corruption and rampant bribery had been gravely underestimated. Everyone knew it was rotten, but nobody knew how rotten it actually was. Nobody knew for certain how far the thing that was so sickeningly and shamelessly overt went.
It will be a tedious journey to get out of that situation. The sentence can be just the first baby step.
Council of State steers clear of Entertainment Complex questions
January 29, 2025: “You ask the wrong person” is often used when one doesn’t want to get involved in something.
That is the virtual response of the secretary-general of the Council of State to a question related to the Paetongtarn government’s Entertainment Complex plan, which requires his agency’s help to eliminate legal loopholes.
The Council of State has set up a special working committee for the job, and the committee includes some popular names when legal expertise is concerned. This led to the question whether there are attempts to make the controversial project more acceptable.
This is what Pakorn Nilprapunt said: “Whether it’s acceptable publicly or not is not the point. We do our part in every government policy. We are like chefs who make every dish taste like how the customers want it and put all the ingredients that they require. If there are things that we don’t agree on, we can make our opinions known but that’s it. The customers are the boss whose demands we have to respect.
“You’d better ask the society when it comes to how all needs can be incorporated. As of now I don’t know how that is going. Now that a policy has been mapped out and declared to Parliament, what we do is ensure things are legally fine with the policy.”
Such a long and painstaking way to say “We don’t have a choice.”
Battle of the AIs
January 28, 2025: Good news is AI can become cheaper. Bad news is AI can become cheaper.
China’s DeepSeek is taking the world by storm, and it does not matter whose side you are on in the race for global supremacy _ Beijing’s or Washington’s _ as you must be cringing at the news anyway. AI (Artificial Intelligence) development is exponentially fast as it is and the lower costs will only make it even faster.
To cut a long story short, the Chinese tech company is sending out a message that everything related to making AI _ computer chips and all _ is a lot cheaper than what America is telling us. Tech stocks have taken a hit, and Donald Trump maybe has got in the first international egg on his face.
He has just announced a new $500 billion venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle, purportedly ensuring “the future of technology” in his country.
American stocks dropped sharply this week, according to CNN, with chipmaker Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value. All after it was clear DeepSeek is a game changer, even threatening the aura of invincibility of the US tech industry.
The Chinese one-year-old startup is boasting a stunning capability. It is reported that the firm could make ChatGPT-like AI model at a fraction of the cost of the giant company’s version. AI technologies, involved fund seeking and other costs as well as the spread of knowledge and manpower can never be the same again.
On the one hand, many AIs can cancel one another out. Secret or open human manipulations or even deceptions have been a big part of AI development, so, in this sense, the more the better.
On the other hand, it can’t be all good if there are too many AIs and they eventually become too smart to manipulate or abuse and have to compete among themselves.
The current pace of development is already scary. As a well-known scientist, Michio Kaku, used to say, Adolf Hitler and the allies fighting him would have done everything within their power to get hold of a computer chip that makes a birthday card sing, a card that we all throw into a dustbin after reading.
When photo that led to peace has sparked war
January 27, 2025: Few ironies are bigger. The famous “Napalm Girl” picture that encapsulated the most important aspect of the Vietnam War is creating a fierce human fight revolving, rightly or wrongly, around recognition and glory.
Awards are always a double-edged sword. Even the Pulitzer Prizes that seek to promote unselfish good deeds which benefit humanity cannot escape that fact. The current controversy involving one camera click that changed the entire complexion of the Vietnam War has proved it.
Should the photo be taken? Yes. Should all journalists and photo journalists think about Pulitzer Prizes while doing their work? Probably not. That could be doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
Are the current rumblings justified? Yes and no. Yes because all truths should be known. No because “credit” can become associated with vanity, and vanity is the Devil’s favourite sin.
Every war picture or story is poignant. Every journalist working on it is a brave and selfless fireman. They should go into a burning house when nobody is watching and rescue the little girl trapped inside, all without thinking of themselves as heroes. They can be proud of being able to save the child, and that’s it, not anything else.
Poll finds on Entertainment Complex anything but complex
January 26, 2025: Pheu Thai is a political party that takes opinion polls seriously, so it certainly must be looking at the latest NIDA survey with greatest concern.
Out of more than 1,300 Thais questioned, more than 59 % do not agree with the Entertainment Complex idea including the casino. Just almost 29 % support it.
Some 8.6 % say they can live with an Entertainment Complex that doesn’t have a casino. (This means more than 67 % say the casino is a no-no.)
Just 1.6 % say they need a casino but do not want an Entertainment Complex.
Should there be legalisation of online gambling? More than 58 % say no absolutely, and just about 20 % say yes totally. More than 11 % say they "quite" agree, as opposed to over 10 % who don’t quite agree.
Should there be a public referendum on an Entertainment Complex that features a casino and legalisation of online betting? About 51 % think Thailand does not have to go that far, as opposed to almost 38 % who say let’s do it.
Let next govt get the credit
January 25, 2025: Air quality is like education. Electoral politics makes best, long-term planning hard to come by.
Competitive politics requires immediate impact of state action. That’s why few government officials are talking about planting more trees to create healthier city lungs. Instead, quick surgeries like allowing temporarily-free mass transport rides, halting construction and re-enabling work from home are getting government attention.
The quick-fix measures might reduce dust and get the government off the hook, but sooner or later the cars will return to the streets and it will be déjà vu all over again. More “big gardens”, meanwhile, will be long-term and efficient saviours. Problem is, when the trees are fully grown and ready to do their heroic jobs, Pheu Thai might not be the government.
It’s like education. In competitive politics, you don’t necessarily reap what you sowed. A political party may trumpet a victory of Thai students in a global “Olympics” although it is not the one who laid down a solid Thai education system. If the Paetongtarn administration banged the table and said “Ok, we will build five more public parks and plant 100,000 more big trees in the city”, it could allow its rivals to say five years from now “See? Under us, we have a metropolis with the best air quality.”
Politics teaches people to take advantage and not make sacrifices. Bangkok’s air pollution problem is challenging this bad tradition and making politicians think more long-term, although they may not “benefit” from it.
And we aren’t even talking about “undoing” what previous governments did yet. Donald Trump and his opponents are giving an Exhibit A in America.
Bangkok dust can weigh Pheu Thai down
January 24, 2025: The air is light, but it can be very heavy when politics is concerned. Bangkok’s air pollution is capable of bringing down any popular government, let alone much-maligned ones.
Bangkok is notoriously fickle politically. In the last gubernatorial election in 2022, it picked “independent” Chadchart Sittipunt as the governor in a landslide. His connections with Pheu Thai made the party gloat nonetheless. But the capital turned almost absolutely “orange” in the 2023 general election, leaving the conservatives shocked and being one of the big reasons why Pheu Thai did not emerge the biggest party as widely expected initially.
Pheu Thai might not want to project itself as being too close to Chadchart nowadays, though. But it can’t do that. If you celebrate the good times you have to stick with him on bad days as well. That is not the biggest reason why Pheu Thai can never cut him loose, though. As the government, Bangkok is its responsibility, and it doesn’t matter which party is “controlling” the capital.
Pheu Thai should also do it for its own sake. If an election was held today, its one and only parliamentary seat in the city would be certainly gone as the whole Bangkok could turn orange. But the party can worry about the general election later, because the governor election will come first.
Now, Chadchart knows how Aswin felt
January 23, 2025: The Thai capital’s worrisome air pollution is due largely to “uncontrollable factors”, said city Governor Chadchart Sittipunt. He did not say that when Aswin Kwanmuang oversaw the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.
Now Chadchart is basically saying that he can’t ban all the cars from the roads and cannot do anything about the “closed weather”, meaning natural ventilation or lack of it is beyond his control. He is also helpless about the out-of-Bangkok burning of various materials that contributed to bad city weather, he suggested.
“The dust situation in Bangkok remains serious,” under-pressure Chadchart said. “There are (increasing) complaints which I humbly understand. I, however, also want the public to understand that the problem is caused primarily by three factors _ cars, burning and closed weather. What we can’t control by any means is the closed weather which has to do with nature, and the burning because it takes place outside Bangkok.”
As for the traffic, he said all the BMA could do was try to limit car fumes as much as possible, but that he could not make all the cars stop running all at once.
“Even if we managed to get all the cars out of the roads, the map wouldn’t turn green overnight. There are other factors like closed weather and the burning. Everything is scientific,” he said.
The governor was ambiguous when construction sites are concerned. “The public want a harsh measure, or stopping all construction to be exact. We have never done that. We just sought cooperation, as we knew there were other factors as well,” he said.
Pardons galore
January 22, 2025: Now, there is an added motive for winning the presidential election in America. Apart from the usual, apparently-noble acts in the job description, if your children, friends, siblings, relatives, beloved colleagues or political supporters are in either blatant or potential legal troubles, being a president can help them.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been in a pardon contest. In the final minutes of his presidency, Biden pre-emptively pardoned several family members, saying he wanted to shield them from political persecution. Using the same words (political persecution), Trump has granted pardons to more than 1,500 of his supporters involved in the January 6, 2021 Capitol “riot” which sought to challenge the results of the earlier presidential election.
Coming to really think about it, an “added motive” may not be the right description. Biden had pardoned his son Hunter Biden a few weeks ago and Bill Clinton had earlier pardoned his brother and Trump, during his first term, pardoned the father of his son-in-law. The trend has always been there, but the current pardon galore makes it a lot more official.
Touching rhetoric always accompanies it. I was just playing it safe, Biden suggested while issuing his parting-shot pardons, so don’t you dare thinking I’m absolving any crime. As for the Capitol protesters, Trump even called them “patriots” and “political prisoners”. The new president, reportedly, once called January 6 a “day of love”.
People say pardons are the best way to kick-start reconciliation. Not this kind of pardons, obviously.
Will he make badly-divided superpower great again?
January 21, 2025: Will America that Donald Trump officially has started re-leading be the same country four years from now? Whatever the answer is, it will greatly affect the whole world and either reaffirm or snub a political ideology/system admired by much of the global population.
That the November presidential election will be the United States’ last used to be a whispered joke. Then the joke became not so funny. Then the “not so funny” has been taken seriously by a lot more people.
A presidential inauguration was once Americans’ pride and joy, an occasion to celebrate what could hardly be found elsewhere _ losers’ willingness to accept defeat, winners’ total respect for the losers, and everyone’s return to national unity and common goal of making the United States inspire awe, absolute respect and jealousy throughout the world.
As for Trump’s inauguration, the losers and the winners still hate each other’s guts, meaning there will be no national unity. If there is a common goal, it’s a shared hope that internal showdowns that involve a lot of washing dirty linen in public will not affect America’s status overseas too much. Trump and his opponents will be hoping that the awe and respect will remain, and that jealousy of America’s economic and ideological strengths will not turn into contemptuous laughter more than what is already happening nowadays.
TikTok, Gaza and Ukraine are Trump’s big challenges, but the greatest test is none of them. Whether China, the Middle East and Russia will listen to him is not as important as whether he can make the other half of America listen to a “new president” that they hate. That is a very tall order but it is also imperative, because only with genuine reconciliation can the United States become great again.
Thaksin roars at full throttle
January 20, 2025: “Corruption, my a**” is how the prime minister’s father responded to long-standing criticism about his family’s massive wealth.
Thaksin Shinawatra did speak about many things else during his Provincial Administration Organisation election campaign stop in Maha Sarakham, but his vociferous response to claims that his family got rich largely because of corruption certainly overshadowed them.
“Some people say I got money through corruption. Corruption, my a**,” he said. “I entered politics 30 years ago and I voluntarily reported the value of my wealth at above Bt60 billion. I built my business with my own hands, and when they seized Bt46,000, nobody ever heard me cry.
“They could not stop accusing me of corruption. How could they, with all the sh**house committees they set up to investigate me? When I became rich, they still begged their fathers for money.
“… I have seen both heaven and hell. Nothing excites me any more. But I will use my hellish experiences to ensure that my Thai compatriots are happy and successful like I am.”
Pheu Thai’s conservative allies, who had used to be relevant thanks to a Thaksin-is-corrupt” platform before the Orange came along, must be clenching their jaws harder. With each passing day, the man seems to be trying his best to make the rebellious People’s Party look adorable.
Politics 101: Blame all disapprovals on "lack of understanding"
January 19, 2025: Thaksin Shinawatra has demonstrated an Exhibit A of mistakes that every single politician always makes. He says some Thais “do not understand” the Entertainment Complex.
The lack of understanding is where opposition is coming from, he says, but he insists that the resistance is small and insignificant.
Speaking in Nakhon Panom, a recent stop in his Provincial Administrative Organisation election campaign whirlwind for the Pheu Thai Party, he said the alarmists were worried too much about the casino, which would take “just” 10 per cent of the complex. There are also other “misunderstandings” that the government should clear up easily, he suggested.
Will there be a public referendum on the casino? No, he said. What about the parliament opposition, which is balking at the plan? Some of them publicly agreed with it before, he replied. Will there be licensing conspiracies? No, everything will be transparent. What are next steps? The related laws should be ready this year and a committee will be set up early next year to lay down “final details.”
He is making the elementary error which, admittedly, a lot of other politicians often subconsciously like to commit. They judge a project not through rationale but through something very datable called political “mandate”.
That’s how “digital wallet” happened. On the global scale, that’s why wars, “invasions” or “liberations” are all over the planet. Politicians misinterpret election or parliamentary mandate, assuming that once they have it, they can do anything.
“Public understanding” is a slippery word. The majority may misunderstand and the minority may know better. That’s why it’s imperative that policymakers use reasons, not “political mandate” to back up what they do.
In the wake of a brutal murder, death penalty advocates may win an election in a landslide, but it does not necessarily mean an-eye-for-an-eye legislation is the best way to go. An elected government may use massive tax money to rescue big banks against the public will and say they understand “better” what a banking collapse can do to the economy.
The lack of understanding that Thaksin refers to showcases a political mentality which is wrong and downright dangerous. This mentality is that politicians in power are always right and small opposition is always wrong. He may have forgotten that the “earth is round” people were once a very tiny minority.
And Pheu Thai’s “political mandate” is also highly arguable. The party lost to another party last year, which means that if it had managed to form a government, Thailand might not have seen digital wallet and the fast-paced materialization of an entertainment complex.
Popularly-backed "Oligarchy"
January 17-18, 2025: There are two ways to disrespect democratic mandate: Either send mobs to Parliament or devalue election winners in a more discreet way.
Both methods have apparently happened in the United States. “Allegedly” might also be a more proper word than “apparently” depending on your political leaning.
Joe Biden often described January 6 of his inauguration year as a big disgrace, saying Donald Trump tried to undermine democracy by being a bad and destructive loser. Being on the losing end this time, Biden seemingly decided to go for a more discreet way that, however, raises questions about his “beloved” system all the same.
Biden’s farewell speech, given from the Oval Office a couple of days ago, was full of bitterness. “I have no doubt that America is in a position to continue to succeed. That’s why in my farewell address tonight, I want to warn the country of some things that give me great concern. And that’s the dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few, ultra-wealthy people. And the dangerous consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked,” he said.
“Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights, freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead. We see the consequences all across America, and we’ve seen it before, more than a century ago. But the American people stood up to the robber barons back then and busted the trust. They didn’t punish the wealthy, they just made the wealthy play by the rules everybody else had to.”
The likes of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, who collectively are worth more than $850 billion according to Forbes, will frown on the comment, which admittedly sounded a bit socialist. While they are seen as leaning toward Trump (to different extents), they are also major success stories of “American dream”, aren’t they?
Indirectly referring to Trump and his people as an oligarchy insults not only them, but also the people who elected the new president, Trump’s party’s House of Representatives candidates and its Senate candidates in landslides. Biden also undeniably questioned the popular vote that Trump won over Kamala Harris against all odds that included legal persecution and her massive and unprecedented campaign funding from donors supporting Biden’s party.
Last but not least “Oligarchy” is of a relative quality. The term means a small group of people having control over a country or organisation, but on a global scale it can also mean a small group of people trying to control the world as well, in which case Biden was lambasting any small bunch trying to establish a world order using business, technological and military means.
At least Trump was elected to lead an oligarchy (in his own country), wasn't he? Biden’s warnings are useful only because they underline growing suspicion that something is seriously wrong fundamentally about the American democracy.
Why now, not when buildings still stood and innocents still lived?
January 16, 2025: Many will say the Gaza ceasefire is better than nothing. While they have a great point, they will also have to admit that, considering the independent photos and widely-accepted death and injury tolls, there is not much left for one of the most outrageous and controversial military rampages in history anyway.
According to Wikipedia, as of last week, over 47,000 people, nearly 46,000 of them innocent Palestinians and 70% of the Palestinians were women and children, have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war which the United Nations sought to condemn as a genocide against the wishes of the United States which has the veto power in the Security Council.
As of late last year, 1.9 million were displaced in Gaza out of a population of 2.2 million.
A UN satellite survey late last year showed two thirds of the total structures in Gaza sustained damages. In total, more than 163,000 structures have been damaged, more than 52,500 of them destroyed and nearly 19,000 severely damaged. The rest were structurally affected one way or another.
The ceasefire made sense, but barely just. It can prevent future atrocities, which is sensible. But it can also more or less benefit politicians in power _ whether they are going or are here to stay _ which is irrational.
Close call
January 15, 2025: If AI-aided gangsters can contact and almost scam Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, we can’t have much hope.
Let’s get this straight. She’s deeply associated with Thailand’s most influential telecom operators. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, is unofficially described the “shadow” prime minister of the country, and had earlier vowed to get tough with “call centre” scammers.
But the notorious racketeers, many hiding in plain sight, are still wreaking havoc with wild abandon. According to Paetongtarn herself, she almost fell victim to a scheme that would be front-page news around the world, destroy her political career and make not just her but also the whole of Thailand a global laughing stock.
Anti-government elements must be cursing the close call. Pro-government ones as well as Thaksin must be heaving a sigh of relief.
Call centre gangsters, armed with newest technology and oldest deceiving methods in the book, almost achieved what Thailand’s ultra-conservatives and the biggest political party have been unable to achieve thus far.
Mega projects are Thaksin's signature
January 14, 2025: It took just a bit too long for the “Entertainment Complex” idea to start to materialise.
Considering Thaksin Shinawatra’s big dreams _ all controversial _ in the past and nobody is surprised. That doesn’t mean it’s not a shame, though, because the project which the Finance Ministry pretends had received no outside influences whatsoever would involve the kind of money that could massively upgrade the education of poor Thai children.
The project could involve the setting up of a world-class casino, Thaksin’s life-long dream, which Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin said “should benefit Thailand if we regulate it well.”
You all are having the same question, right? What if we don’t regulate it well?
The globally-accepted “most-corrupted nations” table does not look encouraging when “if we regulate it well” is concerned. Out of 180 countries, Thailand is ranked 108th.
Is he or isn't he?
January 13, 2025: The question is easy but potentially devastating.
Is prime ministerial adviser Nuttawut Saikua serving in a political position?
The former leading red-shirt activist insisted when Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appointed him to the advisory post last year that he would not be serving politically. Even she said he would be giving only general administrative advices, and the prime minister asked the Thai public to disregard the “coincidence” of his appointment and the possibility that her government would face political protests, something the man knows how to organise and how to cope with.
But in a Facebook post this week, Pichit Chaimongkol, a leader of Students and People for Reform of Thailand, a group determined to take the Shinawatras out of Thai politics, suggested that the Nuttawut case would be a Pheu Thai banana peel all over again just like the seemingly-harmless Cabinet appointment of Pichit Chuenban that ended Settra Thavisin’s rising political career.
Eerily, the Council of State, which seemed extremely cautious throughout the Pichit Chuenban trouble, has been acting similarly when it comes to the Nuttawut affair. So, it means things look ominous for Paetongtarn.
Nuttawut would not be able to help by abruptly resigning, just as Pichit Chuenban’s resignation could do nothing to save Settra. Nuttawut’s appointment order is there as the key evidence, and everyone knows he was under a 10-year ban from political activities for a convicted act of extremism almost 20 years ago.
It apparently is not too difficult to classify Nuttawut’s work. Will he have to go if Thailand has a new prime minister? This question will weigh heavily in the minds of those trying to determine if, thanks to Paetongtarn, he has been doing a political job in violation of a court-ordered political ban.
Toughest political question
January 12, 2025: Everyone’s saddened in America. But try mentioning using tax money from those outside California for the LA fire victims.
Some insurers have suggested they need federal help. Others will follow suit. And rebuilding requires a lot more than just insurance money. The hardest question is, how much pro-Republican citizens are willing to pay to help suffering pro-Democrat people?
Their aid will be essential, not just for financial reasons but also for the sake of demonstrating national unity during one of the country’s most critical and tragic moments. What will a badly-divided nation do?
This is no time to bring politics into it. But sooner or later this highly-political question will resound in America. YouTube comments on this particular subject are not encouraging when national harmony is concerned.
The insurance issue is growing. The California insurance commissioner is trying to block insurers from dropping clients. But the insurance landscape in California and across America is drastically changing, with a high-ranking source reportedly quoted as saying that companies are fleeing high-risk areas.
Future insurance premiums in LA will be astronomical. But that’s a future problem. The current one is tough enough, and everybody has a different view about it. To add to that, Donald Trump, renowned for his no-holds-barred public comments, especially when it comes to his Democrat-related disgruntlement, will take over the presidency in a few days.
Politics throws gasoline on LA fires
January 11, 2025: Nothing burns a nation like cutthroat political divide.
As if the Los Angeles fires were not devastating enough, America’s national divisiveness, already destructive as it is, is deepening and getting worse, fueled by the so-called apocalyptic blazes.
California has always been an impregnable Democrat stronghold. Analysts say nothing but the fires could flip it. To cut a long story short, allegations of grave mismanagement or incompetence in Los Angeles will hurt the Democrats badly in future elections, but blaming it on climate change and a combination of uncontrollable and unlucky factors like winds could somewhat ease the damage or even turn the table on “opportunistic” Donald Trump.
The split media landscape in America is where the political fire rages. That the LA tragedy is coinciding with Trump’s court sentencing makes it a perfect storm. He will serve as a “felon president”, how about that, you pro-Trump voters, one side says. Continue voting for the Democrats and ask LA people what you will get, the other side counters.
The death toll will rise. The numbers and costs of property and business losses as well as homelessness are historically massive. Even a strongly-united country with the most peaceful politics and without immense debt burden or heavy international responsibilities will struggle to move on from here.
When bad things happen to good people
January 10, 2925: Los Angeles citizens could not sleep the night before, so it can’t be said that they “woke up” to the worst nightmare imaginable. They couldn’t see first-hand the destruction of their homes and everything else they love, though, because the ravaging fires were so overwhelming and dangerous that where they once lived were absolutely off limits.
Video clips and still photos of the wildfire devastation were horrific, like a showcase scene in a doomsday movie. The most heartbreaking content, however, highlighted ordinary faces with ordinary backgrounds. People cried talking about lost pets, gutted homes that they had invested everything in, wedding picture albums and other priceless memorabilia that they had to leave behind.
Some had been planning parties to celebrate some things. They now wondered what their children’s playgrounds would look like at this moment. There were also those who did not have time to mourn because they had old parents or close relatives to take care of.
Tens of thousands of rai in Los Angeles look like powerful bombs have been dropped on them. Prolonged drought and strong winds made sure it was the worst disaster to have hit LA. Nearly 200,000 people in Los Angeles County were still under evacuation orders (midnight Thursday, Thailand time). About 200,000 others were under evacuation warnings, meaning these people must be ready to leave their homes if ordered.
(Photos from AFP)
Trump's Canada "joke" is no joke for allies
January 9, 2025: It’s no longer funny whether it’s a Freudian slip or not.
US president-elect Donald Trump has raised many eyebrows with his Canada, Panama Canal and Greenland remarks, and while a lot of people insisted that some of his words must be taken with a pinch of salt, others believe his statements contained big clues about how America under him would treat its allies.
Trump’s tough-guy approach means even closest friends will be more “sidekicks” than they ever were, some analysts believe. Simply put, the allies should kiss the concept of “equal footing” goodbye. Granted, such a concept has always been more idealistic than realistic regardless of who ruled America, but the painful reality will be more glaring under the new president.
According to CNN, Trump sees Canada, America’s closest geographical friend, as a freeloader who has comfortably been sleeping under his country’s security blanket. In a tongue-in-cheek manner, Trump suggested that Canada, therefore, should be a state rather than a nation.
“Such a view repudiates the US-led liberal order that sees alliances as investments that multiply American power and protect democracy and freedom,” CNN said in an analysis.
During his first term, he outspokenly wanted NATO countries to spend more militarily as well, didn’t he? It does not matter much what he said in the past, though, because he is saying it again.
“President-elect Donald Trump’s latest demands of America’s NATO partners—that they cede territory to the U.S. and spend more on defense than Washington itself does—risk undermining allies’ confidence and potentially emboldening adversaries,” said The Wall Street Journal.
“That’s causing consternation among Europe’s cash-strapped governments,” said Politico.
The Times of India quoted Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc as saying that Trump’s remark about Canada is not funny.
“The joke is over,” LeBlanc was quoted as saying. “It’s a way for him, I think, to sow confusion, to agitate people, to create chaos, knowing this will never happen.” That was publicly speaking. Because closed doors, though, Canadian and European Cabinet members must be looking at US-related monetary figures at the moment.
Trump 2.0 loading is almost 100% complete, with the whole world watching anxiously.
Thaksin mouthing off dangerously shouldn't be any surprise
January 8, 2025: For a Thai politician who used to say the United Nations was not his father and who is currently in legal trouble because of a stinging remark allegedly against Thailand’s much-revered institution, his controversial comment about African women was just something that waited to happen.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has to come out to defend her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, but she was trying to defend something indefensible. Instead of unconvincingly saying that Thaksin didn’t mean to devalue African women and that he was only meaning to praise the natural beauty of Thai girls, Paetongtarn should have admitted that old habits die hard, and that they even die harder when it comes to her daddy.
The remark about the UN was made in early 2000s, when Thaksin was prime minister and questioned internationally about his “War on drugs” because of its high death toll that critics said might have included extrajudicial killings. Thaksin shrugged off criticism by declaring that “the UN is not my father.”
In addition to that, when election results did not go his way once, then-prime minister Thaksin said something along the lines of his party’s supporters standing to be the first to benefit from policy prioritisation. When he was in exile, he blamed everyone else for his political downfall, and a controversial foreign media interview is still haunting him because he mentioned the entire Thai political culture in a not-so-nice way.
In the past, what Thaksin said was not such a big issue among politically-correct observers or activists, particularly when he was perceived as a “political victim”. Now that he is anything but, they use hair-splitting technique to analyse everything he says, which is coming thick and fast because political rallies are being held practically every other day.
They may get tired soon, because there are more to come.
Censure: Same old People's Party's test
January 7, 2025: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will be naturally the opposition’s biggest target in the next no-confidence offensive, but the People’s Party will continue to have a tricky mountain to climb when it comes to her father.
As a so-called “liberal” party opposed to the kind of political “persecution” Thaksin Shinawatra always claimed he faced, the People’s Party will still have to walk a tightrope while addressing the “14th Police Hospital floor” issue which, to many, is one of the weakest points of the Paetongtarn administration.
And as usual, the People’s Party will be judged by the neutrals on “information”, not rhetoric at the censure. Its support or opposition will not be changed by three or four days of no-confidence debate anyway, because that is an ideological matter. To win the hearts of those in between, the party will need to show it’s also good at other aspects of parliamentary duties.
The party’s whip leader Pakornwut Udompipatskul has confirmed that the censure will come either at the end of February or at the beginning of March, depending on everyone’s convenience. There will be both public issues that the people are familiar with and “stories nobody has never heard of before.”
Some information would surprise even certain People’s Party MPs, he said.
Pakornwut noted that while all governments survived no-confidence vote in the past, the Paetongtarn administration had unity problems that could be more or less exploited. Some surprises could even be sprung at the voting, his party hopes.
He reiterated that while Paetongtarn was only months into her government leadership, this government was a lot older and nothing has changed economically and socially thanks to the ruling coalition.
He was elusive, though, when asked by reporters how the People’s Party would tackle the Thaksin issue. “We will address manipulation of the justice system as a whole, a distortion aimed at benefiting certain people,” he said.
Asked if the People’s Party was worried that the public would perceive it as “telling same-old stories”, Pakornwut provided a witty response. “Telling old stories means we are serious, doesn’it?”
Small world for Israel? But Trump will make it great again
January 6, 2025: Soldiers receive and obey orders, so it’s debatable if what looks like a rare campaign to bring legal action to Israeli troopers for the Gaza atrocity is fair.
But it’s happening. According to CNN, a former Israeli soldier on vacation in Brazil had to flee the country suddenly after a case was brought against him there alleging he was responsible for war crimes while serving in Gaza.
It’s apparently a shift in the strategy of human rights activists who normally had focused on policy-makers, not those told to implement policies and were unable to avoid them. The Brazilian case is the latest in a series of lawsuits brought by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), a pro-Palestinian NGO, that has tracked the activities of hundreds of Israeli soldiers involved in Gaza activities.
CNN reported that HRF’s website showed the movement has also sought the apprehension of Israeli soldiers visiting Thailand, Sri Lanka, Chile and other countries. A former senior officer in Israel’s Judge Advocate General’s department was quoted by CNN as saying that there were intensifying overseas attempts to bring charges against Israelis who served in Gaza, although the campaign had not resulted in arrest or trial.
“Moms Up,” a group of Israeli soldiers’ mothers, is deeply worried by the campaign and has written to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff following the case in Brazil. Said the group: “We see you as the sole responsible party for removing the legal risk facing our children.”
Gaza-related global developments will likely be heated up after Donald Trump’s second term as the US president officially begins later this month. He is said to be planning devastating sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), with executive orders expected within days of his inauguration. The package could force financial institutions worldwide to terminate or downgrade relationships with ICC personnel and the agency as a whole or face US sanctions themselves.
Reportedly, ICC staff would find it extremely difficult to perform routine banking operations or use credit cards. A lot of their financial activities could be practically frozen except for essential needs like food purchases.
Why is Trump reportedly doing it? The “sanctions” are meant to force the court to withdraw the arrest warrants issued against Netanyahu and some other high-profile leaders responsible for the Gaza infamy.
Does "You're grounded" violate human rights, too?
January 5, 2025: No student likes hair rules. So, doing away with student hairstyle regulations hardly irks the conservatives who used to be children before. After all, how one wears his or her hair does not affect skills, capability or potentials unless you are in specific fields like swimming.
However, to associate student hair rules with human rights stretches it a little bit.
Children faces many rules, many of which are meant to prepare them for the type of discipline that adulthood will require. Why can’t students google for exam answers? Because there is no way else to judge if they had paid attention to what was taught. Why are school uniforms considered (by some) to be important? Let’s wait until 7-Eleven scrap costume requirement for employees and perhaps we can debate. Let’s wait until male MPs can wear shorts to Parliament and then we probably can talk about school uniforms.
Why do school disciplinarians who are chimneys themselves punish students who are caught smoking?
To take it to the extreme, is “You’re grounded” order western parents like to say is a violation of human rights as well? How is it different from school hairstyle or dress rules, which make children unhappy, restrict their “freedom” and would only cause disgruntlement that limits their “potentials”?
Will you ground your kids who come home with half their heads shaved and the long hair on the other half dyed bright red who said it’s their “human rights” to do so? What if the kids with the funny heads go on to be miserable adults who lack basic human rights necessities like foods or shelters? That will be supremely ironic.
How money twists or corrupts politics
January 4, 2025: What’s the deal with political leaders having to be ultra-rich? Thailand, whose average debt per household is more than Bt600,000, has a prime minister whose wardrobe alone (watches included) is worth hundreds of millions of baht and Donald Trump’s net worth is in the billions of US dollars. To add insult to injury, they need donations from ordinary (extraordinarily-poor) citizens for electoral campaigns, here and in the United States.
How have the Shinawatras navigated the political risks associated with being obscenely rich? Of course, they have to make extravagant promises that keep voters hopeful. We have done it so you guys can do it too, every single political leader who is a “successful” business entrepreneur tell his or her public. We are rich because we are smart, so trust us and all will be fine.
Some others use touchable money as a click-bait. “Digital wallet” is just one example of how to keep suspicion at bay. In America, outgoing President Joe Biden has given a weird explanation on why the Democrats fared poorly in the November elections: “I didn’t sign COVID-19 relief checks.”
Either American voters are greedy or Biden was wrongly insulting his own compatriots.
Conventional tyrants, now or in the past, have done it openly, implementing systems of tributes, oppressive taxations or property seizures without excuses. In democracies, measures have to be a lot better camouflaged. Creativity is essential, and it’s a big reason why the world has seen some curious stock or financial instruments and witnessed bank collapses that hurt anyone but the bankers.
Will Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s asset declaration come back to haunt her? Her father’s wealth both enhanced his “economic genius” status and destroyed him politically. (Let’s not forget that Thaksin Shinawatra took over a political party led by one of the most frugal men in politics and somehow managed to build a global status of being a “champion of the poor”. How ironic is that?)
By all indications, Thaksin is attempting to make a comeback using his biological connection with Paetongtarn. But big wealth is a funny thing in politics. It’s all good when it’s on your side, but when it turns against you, it’s devastating.
Significant findings in latest popularity poll
January 3, 2025: It’s debatable what the biggest message of the latest NIDA survey is. The yearend poll on who the most popular politician is contains a few subtle changes in public opinions, and while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut are competing neck and neck for the top spot, the quiet yet remarkable rise of United Thai Nation leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga shall not go unnoticed.
Natthaphong has edged Paetongtarn to the top spot as the most popular politician for the premiership, winning 29.85% of support from 2,000 people surveyed, compared with 28.8% for her.
Energy Minister Pirapan, though, continues to climb little by little, getting 10.25%. It's the first time he has broken through the 10% barrier in a popularity survey, and he had taken baby steps forward in every previous poll, while most other politicians have experienced roller-coaster situations.
One thing that might prevent Natthaphong from extreme celebrations is the fact that his People’s Party is farther away from Pheu Thai in popularity when compared with him and Paetongtarn. The People’s Party is clearly the most popular with 37.3% support. Pheu Thai has 27.7%.
United Thai Nation, on the other hand, gets a percentage that is consistent with Pirapan’s popularity. The party is supported by 10.6%, coming third. Bhumjaithai comes fifth with 5.15% and its leader Anutin Charnvirakul is also the fifth most popular politician with 6.45%.
As for the undecided, 14.4% do not have any prime ministerial candidate in minds, being the third biggest group in the “most-liked politician” department, while 8.2% (fourth biggest group in the popular party category) do not like any of the political parties.
Fresh violence in US ushers in new president
January 2, 2025: Every clue indicates that Donald Trump’s second term can be more treacherous than people thought.
The New Orleans tragedy and the Las Vegas cybertruck explosion, an incident whose details remain sketchy and unclear, are a prelude to what is expected to be the most awkward, most controversial, and possibly most scandalous, presidential transition ever.
While more information needs to come out of the Las Vegas incident, it involves a Tesla cybertruck and a Trump hotel. Moreover, the vehicle was rented from the company that was also named in the New Orleans case. These “coincidences” are being investigated.
Everyone knows that it will be extremely difficult for Trump to reign over a badly-divided superpower nation confronted with the inexorable rise of China, escalating tension in the Middle East and the increasingly-controversial war in Ukraine, but the two domestic incidents are alarming signs that big local and international troubles could come a lot sooner than expected and their magnitudes could even be greater than initially thought.
Meanwhile, credit where credit’s due. The NPR, whose neutrality has been questioned by many in and outside the United States, has published stinging questions for the outgoing US president before he leaves office in about two weeks.
With speculation intensifying over whether and how Joe Biden, whose health is reported to be declining rapidly, will have a farewell media session, the NPR is not waiting. The National Public Radio, followed religiously by many Americans and frowned upon by others, has its White House correspondents ask the following questions which admittedly are tough to answer:
You campaigned on the idea that Trump was a threat to democracy. Do you still believe he's an existential threat to democracy? And what's your message to the many Democrats who worry he is?
If Donald Trump was such a terrible president the first time, as you and many Democrats suggested, why did Americans want him back?
You said that the prosecution of your son Hunter Biden had been politicized. Trump says the same thing about the charges against him. Do you feel that the prosecution of Trump was politicized in any way? If not, do you worry about giving credibility to Trump's arguments of an unfair prosecution?
These questions can be the first things that come to minds of journalistic students overseas, but they are not expected from a leading American media outlet that is not Fox News. You will not see the editorial boards of the likes of the CNN, the Washington Post, Time or etc coming up with such questions and posting them prominently on their websites.
More NPR questions have to do with the borders, the Democrat leadership, the possibly long-overdue timing of Biden stepping aside for Kamala Harris, his belief on his “achievements” and his thoughts on how long America will have to wait for a female president.
Biden can just ignore them all. Trump, on the other hand, will face ultra-hostile mainstream media throughout the next four years.
Hello and Goodbye
December 31, 2024-January 1, 2025: People say we just said goodbye to 2023 and welcomed 2024 yesterday, but truth is that we will say the same thing about 2025 in no time.
“New Year” is weird. New today, not so new tomorrow, “how time flies!” weeks from now and before we know it it’s bye-bye all over again.
The whole concept of time is weird, though. As late and famous comedian George Carlin used to say, there is no now, and everything is either the nearest future or the most recent past.
Time is the most mind-boggling thing ever. We live our whole lives pitying the mosquitos for having such “short” life spans (a week or so for males and just a few weeks for the females), but from their perspectives, they could live incredibly long and have a lot more “new years” than us.
We all know why our dogs are so glad to see us in the evening after we left home for work in the morning. It’s because their body clocks say you have been gone for a long, long time. They aren’t pretending or over-reacting. They just miss us miserably.
Scientific studies seem to suggest that the more agile a species is, the “more frames” it can perceive per second. In other words, time goes slower for them. That comes in handy for animals that can fly (so they can avoid collisions) or are predators (so they are very effective in anticipating the moves of their preys).
Some studies even suggest that best goalkeepers see “more frames” per second than normal people, which allow them to react quicker than most others.
That scene in Interstellar, where the hero and heroine come back from an hour-long mission to find that another crew member left behind to man a spaceship has become an old man, only scratches the surface when time is concerned.
If you think 2024 has come and gone so fast, congratulations, because you have not been too idle. Imagine you are in a prison, it must be super slow.
Sizes, experiences, agility, gravity, environment _ you name it _ all affect perceptions of time. Here’s what Albert Einstein said: “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. That's relativity.”
So, if you think 2024 is whizzing by, you have been sitting with a pretty girl or handsome boy.
Happy New Year by the way. Make the next 12 months, either they are slow or fast for you, count. Also, remember that when we think “What? It’s New Year again?”, someone somewhere is counting the days for it, if it’s an occasion of seeing you again.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
