August 17, 2025: That Thailand’s most popular political clan appears doomed is old news. But that old news has been highly complicated and influenced by recent developments concerning serious problems with Cambodia.
A peaceful bilateral relationship and amicable ties between the Shinawatras and the Cambodian political elites would have been a “safety net” for the now-powerful Thais. That is no longer the case. Which means that court rulings that rock Thaksin Shinawatra could hurt his family a lot more than previously.
Everyone knows that when it comes to political discontent or downright rebellion in Thailand, Cambodia used to play a considerable role. Maybe not as a shoulder to cry on, but as a refuge. That strongman Hun Sen demanded a show of gratitude from the Thai Red Shirts was not pleasant, but many things he said were true. When hardline Pheu Thai personnel were in trouble, Hun Sen always sang that song, Run to me.
There is not a place to fall back on any more. This fact will weigh heavily on the Shinawatras as they stare at court cases that, in the old days, might tempt those at the receiving end to ponder sneaking out and seeking eventual exile.
Who's the bigger victim?
August 16, 2025: Military might wins battles, but being perceived as being battered can win wars.
It’s an ancient strategy which, in the modern world, is even more effective. A propaganda warfare is intensifying between Thailand and Cambodia, both of whom are telling the international community that the other side has been the aggressor.
Thailand has been taking foreign diplomats and journalists to the border. Apparently to a significantly-smaller scale, Cambodia is doing the same. To add to that, Bangkok is drumming up suspicion that on the Cambodian side of the border, a western “correspondent” with ambiguous credentials in America is in fact a lobbyist working for a PR firm.
Thailand is equipped with landmine allegations. Cambodia can look to exploit human rights aspects of the border dispute with its villagers losing jobs and facing restrictions on their essential travels. Charges of prejudicial stereotyping abound on both sides.
Both countries are armed with demarcation documents stating disputed areas are theirs, and “evidence” of civilian damage that spread out on both sides of the frontier.
All matters are increasingly receiving global attention. Who sounds more convincing wins the war.
People’s Party slams “wrong use” of Buddhism budgets
August 15, 2025: How state money is spent through the National Office of Buddhism is evidence of Thailand’s misinterpretation of its main religion, according to the heavyweight opposition party.
Parts of the NOB budget have gone to monks who should have had no business handling money, said the People’s Party during the parliamentary scrutiny of the budget bill.
“I thought the budget would be under the supervision of layman officials, but now we know some money is literally given to monks, a practice that is totally against the key principles of Lord Bhuddha’s teachings,” one Bangkok MP of the People’s Party said on the Bt5.5 billion NOB budget.
The party has sought to slash the distribution. It said the money not only violated major religious principles, but also failed to properly promote Buddhism, a failure evident in the mushrooming of scandals involving senior monks.
Paetongtarn’s risky defence argument
August 14, 2025: The prime minister’s “I was being polite” excuse regarding the leaked phone conversation with Cambodia’s strongman Hun Sen may work with the Constitutional Court, but another big part of her argument may not.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s key defence strategy, as reported by those familiar with written argument submitted to the court, seems to highlight the need to detach Thailand’s political apparatus from the country’s military in order to facilitate negotiations.
The court has set August 29 for the delivery of its ruling on senators’ complaint against Paetongtarn.
While much of her defence argument stressed that politeness would go a long way toward successful talks, there is a part where she controversially suggested that referring to the Thai Second Army Region commander as “the opposition” was an important tactic.
That tactic called for perceived separation of the governing political apparatus from the military mechanisms which were angering Cambodia, her self-defence report to the Constitution Court said, according to a news outlet.
In other words, she is telling the court that, in trying her best to make negotiations successful which would be in Thailand’s best interest, she had to make Hun Sen feel more comfortable talking to her.
It’s debatable whether the court will buy that, or whether she should go to such length as calling the regional army chief someone of the opposite side.
Why Appeals Court increased Loong Phol penalty
August 13, 2025: Today has marked a major development in a criminal case that once fascinated the whole of Thailand.
The Appeals Court judges and their lower-court counterparts have an agreement that one of the country’s most celebrated criminal defendants, Chaiyaphol Wipa, known all across Thailand as “Loong Phol” or Uncle Phol, was responsible for the death of his wife’s three-year-old niece.
But the difference is that while the Mukdahan Provincial Court convicted Loong Phol of manslaughter, giving him 20 years in jail, the Appeals Court decided that he abandoned the girl high up a mountain with an intent to kill.
That is why Chaiyaphol today received additional six years, or 26 years in total, for Orawan Wongsricha’s death.
Orawan, or “Nong Chompoo”, disappeared on May 11, 2020. Three days later, her body was found up on a hill several kilometres from her house. Chaiyaphol became a prime suspect a few weeks later but the mainstream media turned him into a scapegoat, evoking an unheard-of groundswell of public sympathy and donations. From a man who had to use blankets partially as house walls and toilet walls, he became a virtual millionaire being able to buy a big plot of land, set up a company selling cosmetic products, and own a brand-new van.
In December, 2023, Loong Phol was convicted by the Mukdahan provincial Court for Nong Chompoo’s death. However, while it emerged during the trial that she was still alive on the first day of her disappearance, the court’s judges ruled that her death was accidental.
Chaiyaphol, all along, insisted that he had nothing to do with the disappearance. He appealed. But so did the girl’s mother, who wanted him convicted of abandonment with an intention to make her starve to death.
In other words, the provincial court gave weight to a theory that Chaiyaphol took the girl away from her house, somehow made her unconscious, and left the “unconscious” girl up the hill after wrongly assuming she had died. The death, therefore, was not part of the plan.
The Appeals Court, meanwhile, apparently did not buy the manslaughter theory. The argument against Loong Phol was that whether he had intended to kill Nong Chompoo from the very beginning did not matter much. He, in the eyes of the Appeals Court, abandoned a helpless young child knowing full well she was still alive but could not survive alone much longer, especially in extremely-tough conditions.
Bail developments and whether he would appeal the Supreme Court shall be known any minute.
Tale of two cities
August 12, 2025: America’s love affair with Israel is being extremely complicated by hate for Donald Trump.
When Joe Biden was the US president, the massive innocent deaths and injuries in Gaza often gave way to what the Hamas did and the need to free the hostages. When the world attention threatened to focus on the Gaza atrocities and America’s perceived attempt to defend Israel at the United Nations, global citizens were always reminded of the hostages’ plights.
Things have changed. While Trump has done the same as his predecessor, anti-Israel reports and high-level comments against Benjamin Netanyahu in the West have increased remarkably. The full impact is on Israel but a side effect is on the Trump administration. Any bomb being dropped on Gaza virtually rattles the Washington government, too.
American politicians, Democrats or Republicans, share undying love for Israel. Mammoth business interests, which have bipartisan influences over divided American politics, and geopolitics that makes Israel a highly-important domino have dictated the United States’ policy that gives Israel a slap on the wrist whenever it’s wrong and goes full throttle in its favour whenever the country is perceived as a victim.
But the camel’s back is bracing for the last straw. Israel’s killing of journalists in Gaza is doubling the complications. To add to it, Trump’s reported Nobel Peace Prize aspirations is making the tale of the two cities a lot more intriguing.
The next time the UN Security Council seeks to condemn Israel, America (it’s entire society as well as political and media landscapes) will have a huge dilemma.
Love life of soldiers
August 11, 2025: Thais’ relationship with their military ebbs and flows, and primarily three things dictate it.
Battles against outside enemies, floods and political protests, that is. According to the latest NIDA Poll, that relationship is now blossoming in the most romantic stage, probably more blooming than during the big inundation that hit Thailand almost one decade and a half ago.
Coups cause grievances, partly ideologically speaking and partly because promises of “positive changes” always fell through. Military intervention in politics has a predictable course. First the euphoria amid some silenced disapproval and then the fiery explosion of that disapproval. “Sacrifice” becomes “opportunism.”
In Thailand and many other places in the world, the popularity of soldiers and that of politicians often go in opposite directions. When one rises, the other falls. And many times the trend does not represent reality.
Truth is, there are bad and good people in both camps. Blanket stereotype is the most dangerous thing. It’s the main cause of Thailand’s vicious circle, actually.
How dare you?
August 10, 2025: To China, Cambodia nominating Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize is an ex-girlfriend wedding your most hated enemy.
According to Thailand’s Manager website, Chinese netizens have been up in arms, asking whether the ruling Hun Sen family has forgotten something.
It was diplomatically chaotic in the extreme during Cambodia’s civil war, with global alliances virtual and serial shapeshifters. China initially backed the Khmer Rouge but gradually warmed up to the Hun Sen clan whose political powers had been boosted by anti-Beijing Vietnam.
When the dust settled, China and the Hun Sen family got closer, with the issue of Taiwan among the healing forces. Facing international isolation after the 1997 coup increased his power, Hun Sen developed warm ties with China which resisted western efforts to impose some economic restrictions on Cambodia.
Key online messages among Chinese users as quoted by the Manager called Cambodia a betrayer who is obsessed with short-term business interests in leaning toward former hurter America. The Trump nomination, the netizens say, proves beyond doubt which foreign policies Cambodia is embracing. The country is said to be “****ing up to a western superpower” whose leader is not only undeserving of a Peace Prize but also a real triggering force behind some global conflicts.
Cambodia is a heartbreaker, isn’t she? First the Shinawatras and then Beijing.
Will landmines explode in Cambodia’s face?
August 9, 2025: Landmines are planted around the world, in violations of agreements not to use them, but that does not mean Cambodia will be able to escape scot-free if it has used them against Thailand.
Phnom Penh has repeatedly said it does not deploy landmines in the armed conflict with Thailand. Getting caught in a lie will be a big deal, diplomatically, because the rest of the world may ask: “What else have they lied about?”
In a conflict that is catching increasing international attention, being exposed as a liar can be as impactful as a battlefield loss.
The Thai Army has been equipped with pictures, which can be hard to disprove. In a very recent incident, it says, three Thai soldiers were wounded after stepping on an anti-personnel landmine while erecting a fence along the Thai-Cambodian border. Thailand insists that the incident clearly shows that the use of the generally-condemned weapons along the border persists and constitutes a blatant violation by Cambodia of the Ottawa Convention.
A pro-Thai military online post sarcastically wonders how much “Scambodia” has received from world donors who wanted to help it eliminate landmines that numerously strewed the country due to long periods of civil wars.
What an irony it is, the online post says. A country hurt so much by landmines throughout its history and paid to destroy what caused it so much blood, tears and even lives is using the weapons against its neighbours, it charges.
The post goes on to say that the issue of landmines often threatened ceasefire talks, because one of Thailand’s main demands was for Cambodia to retrieve landmines from disputed border areas, but Cambodia could never accept it as accepting would mean confessing.
According to the post, it is not difficult to find out whether landmines found at the border are old or new. Recently, Cambodia claimed Thailand could be talking about old landmines that survived through times.
Should Thailand strip Hun Sen of its royal decoration?
August 8, 2025: Sometimes men will always be boys. By that, they take back things they gave each other when the relationship turns sour.
Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former prime minister, was nominated for and awarded a Thai royal decoration while Thaksin Shinawatra was his Thai counterpart. This decoration, the Knight Grand Cross (First Class) of the Most Noble Order of the White Elephant, was presented to him during a visit for helping both countries strengthen their relations.
Now that things have changed, should Thailand take it back? A woman who has worked in some senior government positions, Traisulee Traisoranakul, is among those asking the question out loud.
Her Facebook post came with hashtags “when will we remove the royal decoration?” and “How many Thais have been killed?”
The royal decoration was given in 2001 when Thaksin was Thailand’s prime minister. Bilateral friendship was booming at the time and so were personal ties between the Shinawatras and the Cambodian political elites. The personal connections continued to be solidified despite local political storms battling the Thaksin family and key supporters.
A few weeks ago, Hun Sen has decried the Red Shirt “ingratitude”. The “You-stayed-in-my-house” reminder is a big sidebar to the border tension. He could not take that back, though, but he has done what boys always do anyway.
Hun Sen keeps typing away, and right on many things
August 7, 2025: Like him or hate him, Cambodia’s strongman Hun Sen sounds largely sensible in his latest online post.
If ones take away possible motives of the post, quoted by Cambodia’s local media, that is. Nobody knows exactly why he does or says this and that. The point is if we take his post at face value, it’s not bad.
First he said the Thai-Cambodian conflict must remain strictly between Thailand and Cambodia, and other countries shall never be dragged into it.
“Recent reports (and rumours) said Japan gave drones to Thailand and China gave drones to Cambodia, while South Korea has sold Thailand planes and ammunition,” he wrote. “One aim was to assassinate me and my son. These claims if left unchecked could lead to very bad consequences.”
He said dragging a third country into the armed conflict while nations were demanding or facilitating peace efforts was a bad idea.
Who gave or sold what to whom should never be talked about, he said. Countries like Japan, China and South Korea “support peace, not war”.
The same post urged countries that sold warplanes to Thailand to ensure that their exports were not “misused” against neighbours.
On rumoured assassination plans, he said: “Throughout history, people killed or tried to kill the enemies’ military leaders, but this is a new age, where strong leaders are needed to talk peace (too).”
In what could be a dig at the Thai government leaders, he said Cambodia and Thailand both require strong leaderships to discuss their problems.
“In Cambodia at present we only have Hun Sen and Hun Manet,” he said. (This part of his statement is admittedly questionable.)
He dismissed assassination attempt rumours, but not without saying the following: “Although they (the Thai leaders) don’t like us, they can’t be totally inhuman. (And) if we are really assassinated, the bilateral relationship will be beyond repair. If Hun Sen and Hun Manet were assassinated, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of Hun Sens and Hun Manets would be born in Cambodia.”
Uneasy move
August 6, 2025: The Cambodian king backing his government during border tensions is no surprise, but his strong words about Thailand are.
In formalizing thus reinforcing strongman Hun Sen’s military role, King Norodom Sihamoni has issued a Royal Decree which also talked about why the monarch had to do it.
The king’s decree officially empowering Hun Sen to lead national defense said he was acting because the nation “is suffering from serious violations and threats to its territorial integrity by the Thai soldiers, and in accordance with the spirit of the Constitution of Cambodia.”
The statement has been made public while everyone (or at least almost everyone) is trying to enforce the ceasefire. Many people outside Cambodia will see that as a problem.
Moreover, while King Norodom Sihamoni is virtually a nominal head of state, Hun Sen is anything but. Why was the royal authorization needed? Some analysts linked it to the perception that Hun Sen was usurping his prime minister son’s authority.
Wars and peace awards
August 5, 2025: Nobel Peace Prize is never shy of controversies, to be fair to Donald Trump if he’s officially in the mix this year.
Politicisation and Nobel judges allegedly trying to appease big-name and influential candidates are key reasons why some years saw more criticism than nods of approval.
In 1973, the prize went to a North Vietnamese communist leader and late US Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger for a ceasefire in the Vietnam War and a withdrawal of American forces.
You don’t have to mention who were involved in the Vietnam War in the first place because basically everybody else already did that after the prize was announced. The New York Times dubbed it the “Nobel War Prize”, and one popular quote in The Washington Post said “The Norwegians must have a sense of humour”.
One of the “weak” American presidents, Jimmy Carter, won it in 2002. That came shortly after the US Congress authorized the sitting president, George W. Bush, to use military force against Iraq amid “weapons of mass destruction” claims.
No need to say, that was both controversial and ironic. It was a compliment on America and big slap on the American face all at the same time.
In between Kissinger and Carter, Yasser Arafat was honoured in 1994. That prompted a Nobel Committee member to resign in protest while calling him the “world’s most prominent terrorist.” The criticism might be a little bit unfair, though, as anyone can be challenged to name an award-winning government leader who was never accused of supporting terrorism in one way or another. Carter might be one of the very few (if we take away what might have happened that he did not know about, that is.).
To top it all, Mahatma Gandhi never received the prize despite being nominated five times. Well, take your time to let that sink in.
“Trump for Nobel Peace Prize”
August 4, 2025: Cambodia is all for it, and the White House will certainly want to know what Thailand has to say about it.
Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol has been quoted by his country’s major English media network as saying that Phnom Penh would officially nominate US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his “critical role” in brokering the “ceasefire” between Cambodia and Thailand.
“He should get the Nobel, not only for his work on Cambodia but also elsewhere,” Chanthol told The Wall Street Journal.
Whether that could backfire is debatable. Already, some people are eying Trump with suspicion because he seemed to emerge quickly and out of the blue in supporting the truce talks.
And as a president whose administration has sent bombers into Iran without declaring a war and is always a subject of “a new Civil War” talks even among Americans, his Nobel Peace Prize nomination, let alone triumph, could be one of the most controversial.
Cambodia will beg to differ. According to the Khmer Times, a growing wave of gratitude has swept across the country. “Social media platforms have been inundated with hashtags such as #ThanksTrump, #PresidentOfPeace, and #TrumpForPeacePrize, with users hailing him as a global peacemaker. Memes, portraits, and tributes featuring Trump alongside the US and Cambodian flags – and images of Cambodian refugees, especially children – have gone viral,” the network has reported.
“Without Trump’s intervention, the situation could have turned much worse. He saved lives,” one Cambodian user on X reportedly wrote.
Former national leader and current Senate President Hun Sen also praised Trump’s intervention, stating as reported by the Khmer Times that it had a “profound impact on saving tens of thousands of lives” and stabilising the tense border region.
Problem with humanitarianism preaching
August 3, 2025: Humanitarianism is the hardest word, simply because if you want to really advocate it, you need to be consistent.
As tough as it is, wars make it a lot tougher.
If you cry for Cambodian patients needing Thai medical care, for example, you have to cry for the countless innocent children and women slain, injured, starving and displaced in Gaza as well. And you need to do it as vocally and in the same “heartfelt” manner as in the Cambodian case.
And if you cry for Gaza, you have to cry for the innocent people affected by the war in Ukraine as well. And if you cry for the Ukrainian civilians, you have to condemn governments that refuse to condemn the Israeli leadership, too. If you condemn Donald Trump for ignoring the plight of Gaza victims, you have to condemn Joe Biden and his entire White House without exception.
There’s more. Condemning the Russians or Israelis or the Hamas requires you to question the idea of drug patent, too.
On and on it goes.
Genuine “humanitarianism” takes political or ideological leanings out of the equation. Otherwise, it’s abusing, not advocating.
That’s why you have to be extremely, unambiguously and unbelievably consistent if you want to use “humanitarianism”, one of the most used, most distorted, least understood and least respected words in the dictionary.
Picture can tell thousand words, and video more so
August 2, 2025: If the past had as many cameras as the present, the world’s history as we know it would likely never exist.
Thailand is using photo and video content to show who was right and who was wrong in the armed conflict with Cambodia. In this age, that can be the best move possible.
Both countries have been trading charges, accusing each other of being the aggressor. But any government can fake accusations or stories. Who targeted civilians or who accidentally bombed villagers can now be better shown through a poor man’s smartphone.
Thailand has been on the offensive when it comes to photo and video evidence, inviting not just local reporters but also foreign journalists and diplomatic representatives to see real things and recorded content with their own eyes. The onus is on the Phnom Penh government to produce a similar kind of evidence.
Don't celebrate too early
August 1, 2025: Impact of the Trump tariffs on America and its trading partners is a slow burn, so any celebration is premature.
Economists have agreed that the greatest fear, a potential disaster, has receded. But they said both pro-Trump Americans proclaiming victory and countries cheering lower-than-expected US tariffs have to wait and see.
Ben May, Director of global macro forecasting at Oxford Economics, was quoted by BBC as saying that US tariffs still had the capacity to "damage" the global economy in several ways.
"They are obviously raising prices in the US and squeezing household incomes," he says, adding that supplies and demands around the world would change chaotically when one of the largest economies ends up importing fewer goods.
Sometimes good news is actually bad news that manages to avoid worst-case scenarios. Nations that had expected higher tariffs may be glad, but sooner or later farmers will protest, employees will lose their jobs and unprepared companies will collapse.
Daily updates, and opinions on, local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim.
