November 3, 2024: There is no way to get rid of political biases in opinion polls, but when different pollsters start spotting the same significant change, it’s worth taking note.
Dusit Poll has somehow detected an unlikely development found earlier by NIDA pollsters. Both surveys _ one arguable and the other quite obvious _ have Paetongtarn Shinawatra ahead of any prime ministerial candidate in terms of popularity. Pheu Thai suffered a heavy image setback when it decided to join hands with the conservatives after last year’s general election, so Paetongtarn exceeding expectations in the latest popularity checks is a considerable surprise.
Dusit pollsters surveyed more than 2,130 Thais during the last week of last month. It was not a direct popularity contest between Paetongtarn and opposition leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut of the People’s Party, but nearly 53% think she is the most outstanding politician on the government side, while he receives 37.8% support as the most outstanding opposition figure.
Natthaphong’s closest popularity rival in the opposition bloc is someone at the same party, Sirikanya Tansakun, who breaths down his neck with more than 34%. Paetongtarn’s closest government rival is Anutin Charnvirakul who receives only 26.4%.
Weeks ago, NIDA found a similar trend. Paetongtarn, brand-new prime minister at the time, shot to the first place in its popularity survey covering 2,000 people, coinciding with the “first-phase” Digital Wallet launch. She received more than 31% support, comfortably leaving Natthaphong, a new face, behind.
In that survey, Natthaphong came third with almost 23% backing. Very interesting in the NIDA survey was what was between the man and the woman. Up to 23.50 % of the people surveyed said there was no suitable leader for Thailand at the moment.
A lot of academic language accompanies Dusit pollsters’ presentation of their latest findings, but to sum it up in layman’s terms: Paetongtarn must have done something right during the big flooding and the opposition had better start delivering a good performance beyond the parliamentary floor.
One more straw could land on badly-strained camel’s back
November 2, 2024: Don’t let news from America occupy all the attention this week, because what happens at the Thai Central Bank can be very impactful politically, too.
Both events _ the US presidential election and the Bank of Thailand’s appointment of a new chair _ can easily become a slow-motion car crash. Or the opposite, quick-paced turmoil to be specific, can happen.
A Pheu Thai loyalist and proven critic of the central bank governor is joining a couple other candidates to compete for chair of the Bank of Thailand, and the conclusion could come around the same time as the election of the new American president. Kittiratt Na-Ranong and Pheu Thai can deny a conspiracy but a big army of critics are warning against political interference in the Bank of Thailand, some with thinly-veiled threats of a political uprising.
Pheu Thai has been pushing the BOT. Digital Wallet, interest rate cuts and frequent prime ministerial criticism. You name it. But in pushing the BOT, Pheu Thai is also pushing the conservatives, who are their reluctant allies and thus have had to grit their teeth and bear the appointments of Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, start of the Digital Wallet Programme, reversal of the cannabis policy and vocal support for constitutional amendment.
Kittiratt’s possible appointment in a normal political circumstance would be already tumultuous, let alone in this highly-unusual atmosphere. Don’t rule out vociferous street protests, which may form quicker than those organised by supporters of the loser in the United States.
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When an apostrophe might come to the rescue
November 1, 2024: You can call your political opponent garbage, but never his or her supporters. That’s why the White House is working at full throttle trying to repair damage caused by a very recent Joe Biden remark.
And it was just a few days before the presidential election, too. Which makes his administration’s hectic move highly understandable.
Biden was reacting to a comedian who referred to Puerto Rico at a Donald Trump rally as an “island of garbage”. “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” he was originally quoted as saying, prompting a major Republican backlash and sending Trump to ride on a garbage truck in a follow-up campaign.
Kamala Harris is distancing herself from Biden’s controversial remark, of course.
Immigration is a big electoral issue and the Democrats are relying a lot of non-white votes, but the “garbage” remark is too damaging for comfort, especially when America’s political divide is volcanic.
The White House later released a transcript of what Biden said that included an apostrophe. “Supporters” became “supporter’s”.
You be the judge on whether the apostrophe made sense. Here’s Biden full sentence in the official transcript: “The only garbage I see floating out there is [Trump's] supporter’s… his demonisation of Latinos is unconscionable, and it's un-American.”
This is what all media networks reported initially: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters – his – his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”
Considering Biden, who used to call a senior journalist “stupid son of a bitch” in a hot mic incident, if the garbage remark was meant to be blanket, it’s not a total jaw-dropper. But the apostrophe came straight from the White House so it’s absolutely up to you what to believe.
Whatever your assumption is, Trump is now giving rally speeches in a garbage collector outfit.
Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
