July 17, 2025: It is clear the biggest political camp remains isolated ideologically by other parties, both in the government and opposition blocs.
The largest telltale is this week’s House of Representatives rejection of two draft amnesty bills seeking to grant amnesties to all political offenders, including those convicted on lèse majesté charges (Section 112 of the Criminal Code).
Both bills were backed by just more than 140 votes each, coming from the People’s Party, while its opposition partners, Bhumjaithai and Palang Pracharath obviously did not support the drafts.
The voting provides a clear sign in an otherwise unpredictable Thai politics that the chance of the People’s Party getting reunited ideologically with Pheu Thai, whose influential figure is facing charges of royal defamation, is next to zero.
“Pheu Thai should stop calling itself a representative of democracy,” charged a deputy People’s Party leader, Rangsiman Rome.
While ideology is bendable, both parties would face “practical” problems if coming back together. There would be extreme difficulty concerning how they could share Cabinet powers and allow controversial agendas like the Entertainment Complex to continue.
But as of now, questions are revolving around the fragile unity of the parliamentary opposition. In any normal situation, a ruling party would smile at the opposition’s predicament, but Pheu Thai has too much on its plate itself.
"TACO" taunts subside, for now
July 16, 2025: A big increase in US tariff income is considerably softening the “Trump Always Chickens Out” tease.
“TACO” is haters’ slogan that had badly mocked MAGA (Make America Great Again), looming over Donald Trump’s proclaimed agenda that helped him win last year’s presidential election. But, as the Financial Times has reported, it’s the world that has chickened out over tariff showdowns with Trump’s United States.
Only China and Canada are standing toe to toe with America, Financial Times said. This allows the White House to trumpet nearly $50bn in extra customs revenues in the second quarter this year, during which customs duties hit a record high of $64bn ($47bn more than over the same period last year).
Said Financial Times: “Combined with limited retaliation from Canada, which has yet to release second-quarter customs data, the duties imposed on American exports worldwide represent a tiny fraction of the US revenue during the same period. Some other US trading partners decided against responding in kind while negotiating with Trump to avoid even higher threatened tariffs.
… Despite US tariffs hitting levels not seen since the 1930s, the timidity of the global response to Trump has forestalled a retaliatory spiral of the kind that decimated global trade between the first and second world wars.”
The US news outlet virtually said the world was chickening out because it was being sensible.
“Economists said the US’s dominant position as the world’s largest consumer market, coupled with Trump’s threats to redouble tariffs on states that defy him, meant that for most countries the decision to “chicken out” was not cowardice, but economic common sense,” it said.
That economic factors are influencing world governments’ decisions could not prevent the flourishing of political theories, however. In Thailand, for example, the Paetongtarn government has been forced to deny allegations that the United States wants to establish a naval base in the southern Thai province of Phang Nga, as part of negotiations over tariffs on Thai exports to the US.
The Bangkok government insisted that, in the negotiations to reduce the planned 36% tariff, the use of a naval base in the province was not part of the discussion.
Using trade to shape up a political world order is an always-effective idea, and many analysts think Trump is just taking it to the next level (low tariffs if you want to be with “us” and very high tariffs if you want to go to “them” or are acting like rebellious teens). The naval base allegations stemmed from that kind of suspicion, which is prevalent because of the emergence of China as an economic superpower in addition to its formidable military might.
High tariff threats hopefully will keep Europe and smaller trading partners of the United States in line in the face of growing threat from the other economic bloc, BRICS, of which China is an influential founding member.
As if the Paetongtarn leak wasn’t enough
July 15, 2025: Cambodia’s Hun Sen is having the Shinawatras against the ropes.
No, sorry, he is not. He is kicking them when they are down.
The strongman’s ongoing rapid fire was not necessary, but his latest claims _ that former prime minister Thaksin had provided Cambodia with some confidential information concerning moves of the Thai Cabinet _ were worth investigating anyway.
By virtually admitting that Cambodia was not dealing with Thailand in a proper diplomatic manner, real damage is piling up on the Shinawatras. Their political enemies in Thailand had not trusted them from the start, yet he has given them more formidable ammunition and created new enemies for the Shinawatras over the past few weeks.
He may have been considered a bad friend. But what he has intact is vulgar nationalism, which may suit him well, at their very expense.
Thirst for water and thirst for war
July 14, 2025: As adults keep debating right and wrong, bombs have killed more children in Gaza.
How should the Hamas be punished? Should the UN Security Council condemn Israel? Why does America keep supporting Benjamin Netanyahu?
Why does nobody think about the hostages anymore while everyone is crying for Gaza? Has Israel turned into the evil it vowed to fight? Did it stop being an eye for an eye operation a long time ago, replaced by a cleansing atrocity unseen since the World War II?
Is being sad for the Gaza victims inadvertently a support for terrorism?
Those are questions for diplomats, journalists, government leaders, academics and humanitarian activists who until today cannot find a clear-cut common ground.
To the latest casualties of the Gaza war, they had just one question in minds. Simple, but it also proved to be deadly.
We need water, and the usual water distribution point should be safe, right? No way they will attack it.
An airstrike came at that very point in central Gaza on Sunday, and about 10 died, including six children waiting to get water for their families.
Temptations of Buddhist monks
July 13, 2025: Who should preach about sin if not sinners?
This is an interesting question that encompasses religions. Christianity has been contemplating it as well, as seen in such movies as Leap of Faith, but Thailand, always facing an endless stream of scandals related to the very people who are supposed to protect the national religion, should only focus on Buddhism.
Prince Siddhartha Guatama, founder of Buddhism, had it all when he escaped from his palace to embark on a spiritual journey. Women. Massive wealth. Clout. Power. You name it.
A large percentage of Thai monks, meanwhile, had none of those things when they decided to get ordained.
So, who were better immune to temptations, the prince or the Thai men embracing or seeking ordination? Who are better equipped when it comes to talking about the real power of “sins”?
Yes, the prince’s soul searching was immeasurably motivated by the irreversible courses of aging, sickness and death, but those sufferings that he saw outside palace walls could not have been addressed effectively had he not got the immunity. Nothing could ever tempt him back into the materialistic world.
He absolutely deserved to teach detachment.
Punishing wayward monks is a measure, but most likely not a solution.
US tariff letter makes Myanmar’s junta jump for joy
July 12, 2025: Not everyone is having a headache dealing with America’s planned obscene import taxes.
According to CNN, Myanmar’s generals are spinning the US communique sent to them as welcome recognition of the embattled, isolated and much-reviled junta.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, head of the military that seized power in Myanmar in 2021 after ousting an elected government, was officially quoted as saying it was he who had the “honor” of receiving Donald Trump’s letter sent on Monday announcing new tariffs.
The letter, which stated the United States would be imposing a new tariff rate of 40 percent on Myanmar’s exports to the US starting August 1, was received with “sincere appreciation,” a pro-government news outlet said as reported by CNN.
It is like an outcast getting invited to a party all of a sudden. CNN noted that Washington and most Western countries have not recognized the junta as the legitimate government of Myanmar.
The West has largely boycotted Myanmar’s military and sought to limit contact with its representatives on the world stage, leading to curiosity regarding what type of tariffs the communique sent to Myanmar was talking about.
Washington, Min Aung Hlaing reportedly said, had sent Myanmar an “encouraging invitation to continue participating in the extraordinary Economy of the United States.” The junta’s high-level negotiation team would try its best “to discuss (the issue) with the relevant (US) authorities.”
It has to be said that western media have been divided into pro-Trump and anti-Trump camps, so every context must have the other side. As for now, though, Trump’s publicists seem to be on the defensive regarding Myanmar.
Politically, Trump cannot be seen as helping, innocently or else, the generals.
CNN said Min Aung Hlaing also sought to appeal to a longstanding Trump “grievance” – his persistent claims of massive election fraud in the 2020 election won by Joe Biden.
“Similar to the challenges the President encountered during the 2020 election of the United States, Myanmar also experienced major electoral fraud and significant irregularities,” Min Aung Hlaing reportedly said.
To add to that, the general also thanked Trump for “regulating broadcasting agencies and funds, which have sometimes exacerbated the existing conflicts”, CNN said. Myanmar’s strongman was referring to funding cuts to US outlets such as Radio Free Asia and Voice of America.
What were they thinking?
July 11, 2025: There is no faster and surer way to devalue “Team Thailand”.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira has admitted that he invited former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to its meeting today, during which the deadly important issue of American tariffs was discussed. Pichai explained that Thaksin was allowed to participate because he was well versed on the issue and could provide some valuable feedback.
That says a lot about the Thai Cabinet quality, about government people working to solve national problems. That says a lot about charges that the Paetongtarn government has been under undue external influences. That says a lot about the prime minister’s daily denial. And that says a lot about how sincere the ruling Pheu Thai Party is when it claims it always avoids inflaming national conflicts.
Gathering every bit of expertise in dealing with such an economic crisis is nothing wrong. But if Thaksin’s was really needed, there are such things as online meetings. (They can be done more discreetly, and although they could still spark criticism, at least it will not look so outrageous.) What were they afraid of? Vietnam getting the leak and knowing what Thailand is planning to do?
Claims against senator put Thai society to test
July 10, 2025: It’s a scandal to point to when someone says #MeToo is a well-accepted movement with great momentum.
One woman has accused a man of high status of sexual harassment. Such accusations are rare but old. She has called a high-profile press conference and spoken with no mask in front of TV news cameras. This, however, is unprecedented.
He has claimed, though other sources and not as publicly as she did, that it was a consensual get-together. It’s the most frequently-used story of the ones on the receiving end. Make no mistake, many times such an excuse is true and solid.
Society, meanwhile, is heavily tilted toward the accused, currently at least, and things might change. On the social media, she is largely accused of being a woman scorned, or a spotlight seeker, or both.
Talking about spotlight, she said the reason why she decided to go public without wearing any mask was that “I’m not the one who has to feel shame.”
The senator in question, with some controversial backgrounds, reportedly is suing her for libel. Differently-edited close-circuit TV clips are putting many things to test, including how society should treat or regard the #MeToo phenomenon.
Sometimes “later” is no better than “never”
July 9, 2025: There are times politicians tell the truth, but while they are in the government is most likely not one of them.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra met Chinese leader Xi Jinping a long time ago, and while he served in her government, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul said nothing. It took just days in the opposition bloc for Anutin to reveal a national-level “secret”.
According to Anutin, President Xi urged Paetongtarn Shinawatra to drop Pheu Thai’s flagship “casino bill”, warning her that there could be negative repercussions on tourism and bilateral trade.
“The Chinese president made the suggestion to Paetongtarn on three separate occasions during the meeting, which I also attended as interior minister,” Anutin said, making it sound like a deadly important issue of national interest but apparently oblivious to the fact that he probably had kept this piece of crucial information for too long while he served in her Cabinet.
“President Xi said directly that, if Thailand proceeded with this policy, China would be compelled to introduce countermeasures that would impact Chinese tourism, trade and investment in Thailand,” Anutin claimed.
The bill has been suspended, all right, but, coincidentally or not, the number of Chinese tourists have alarmingly dropped already.
Flood deaths mourned, more weapons to Ukraine promised
July 8, 2025: So much for “putting America’s interests first”.
As US citizens mourn the accumulating Texas flood death toll, which has surpassed 100 now, President Donald Trump plans to send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine, just right after his administration paused certain shipments.
Talk about timing, which was outrageous even by Trump’s standard. Although unprecedented flash floods wreaked unprecedented havoc at the Republican power base of Texas, he had a dinner with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, gave no signs that America would stay away from future military conflicts in the Middle East, and made jaws drop by saying that Ukraine needed Washington’s immediate military help.
“We’re going to send (Ukraine) some more weapons. We have to – they have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump said ahead of the dinner with his much-condemned major ally.
“They’re getting hit very hard. We’re going to have to send more weapons,” Trump added. “Defensive weapons, primarily, but they’re getting hit very, very hard.”
That Monday promise came hot on the heels of the White House telling CNN that the Trump administration was pausing some weapons shipments to Ukraine, including air defence missiles. White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly was quoted by CNN at the time as saying that the decision was made “to put America’s interests first.”
The costs of potential US military interventions overseas that are deemed “unnecessary” are difficult to estimate with precision, but every educated guess says well-known wars cost an unfathomable amount of US money. For example, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, from 2001-2018, were estimated to cost trillions of taxpayers’ dollars.
That kind of money, according to late US President Jimmy Carter, could have been used to immensely improve American infrastructures and upgrade natural disaster warnings as well as search and rescue works. Trump apparently had seemed to adhere to that while promoting his “Make America Great Again” policy seeking to drastically decrease his country’s involvement in foreign wars, but more and more people are suspecting that he may just be trying to win an election.
More than 100 people have died during the catastrophic flooding in central Texas. The majority of those killed were in Kerr County, where 28 children have died, a shocking loss of young lives that a senator described as miraculous because he thought more could have been killed in the devastation. Many were at a girl campsite known as Camp Mystic when flooding struck early on July Fourth.
Neck and neck with Thailand
July 7, 2025: Donald Trump and Elon Musk are trying to make sure future historians point to America and not Thailand when talking about the most bizarre politics.
Just when Thailand is heading toward a freakish deadlock, an outlandish “solution” has emerged in the United States, in the form of a no-nonsense promise to form a new and major political alternative.
Musk wants to set up a new political party to break the Republican-Democrat virtual monopoly of powers. (The current system is considered democracy, but both Republicans and Democrats will beg to differ. They are calling each other dictators in disguise. There are three possibilities then: First, one camp is right and the other is wrong. Second, both camps are right. Third, both camps are wrong. But whichever possibility is true, America is dictatorial, full stop. On the surface, the third scenario is two “democratic” parties accusing each other of being dictatorial, but why are they lying? Lies are the biggest characteristic of dictatorship to begin with.)
Anyway, Musk wants to make it seem more democratic by planning to form a new party. Trump doesn’t like it, and this is what he said on Truth Social on Sunday: “I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails,’ essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks.”
Which one is more spectacular? The Hun Sen-Shinawatra breakup or the crumbling of the Trump-Musk relationship? Both cases are still on-going but it’s definitely a very close race.
And while Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul wanted to censure a government he was a big part of until days ago, check Trump’s latest statement on Musk out:
“He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States – The System seems not designed for them. The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS, and we have enough of that with the Radical Left Democrats, who have lost their confidence and their minds!”
This is bigger and more beautiful than Trump’s “Big, beautiful bill” that Musk vehemently opposes. Critics say the tax and spending bill, requiring a massive amount of funding, will only strengthen dictatorial agendas and hurt America.
Did Musk know about the bill when he was Trump’s biggest ally? Did Anutin know about the Shinawatras’ Digital Wallet and Entertainment Complex when he was their biggest partner?
It can be a photo finish.
Cambodian columnist: Thai poll meant to hide fragility
July 6, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra must be wishing the Thai media were like the one in Cambodia.
Would the Thai media describe her as a national heroine who brought peace to Thailand and is defending its sovereignty to the best of her ability?
This is what Roth Santepheap said in Khmer Times: “Samdech Techo Hun Sen is not an ordinary political figure. He is a statesman who ended Cambodia’s darkest chapter, a unifier who dismantled the Khmer Rouge, brokered national reconciliation, and laid the foundations for the Paris Peace Agreements and make end the civil war by Win-Win Policy. Under his leadership, Cambodia evolved from the ashes of civil war into one of ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies. He is blunt, pragmatic, and unwavering—qualities that regional leaders often find uncomfortable, especially when he speaks the truth.
“…Samdech Techo Hun Sen’s recent statements stem from a deep and legitimate concern for Cambodia’s sovereignty, security, and historical integrity. When he warned of instability in Thai politics, it was not meddling—it was a calculated message from a seasoned geopolitical mind. His words, far from being speculative, were a strategic call for caution and responsibility before tensions spiral further out of control.”
It was an immediate response to Thailand’s latest NIDA poll, which suggested a large number of Thais believe Hun Sen was going into border troubles with Thailand with self interest in mind and his prediction that the Bangkok government wouldn’t last three more months was not a prophecy, but pure speculation.
“The Thai response has revealed a troubling fragility. A confident, mature government does not panic over external analysis—it counters it with truth, diplomacy, and respect. Character assassination via polling only betrays weakness and deflection,” the Cambodian columnist said.
While attacking NIDA pollsters as a pro-government network doing everything to support Paetongtarn, Roth failed to mention that the same group recently released a finding showing her popularity had plunged miserably in her country.
Meanwhile in Thailand, media opinions said Paetongtarn were always steps behind Cambodia when it comes to diplomatic moves related to the border dispute.
High tariffs and political interferences
July 5, 2025: I’ll buy if your daughter is the seller. That’s how trade can be manipulated for a hidden agenda.
The above example is the “ground level”. Internationally, it’s the same, though. A country can say we will buy from you if this or that person is the seller, or represents the seller.
Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. High tariffs are virtually a "We are not buying" statement. It can increase the costs of those goods for consumers and businesses in the buying country, but the buying country always has other choices. The selling countries have fewer ones, or no choice at all. What do they do? They have to listen to the buyers.
For example, a prospective buyer may say, “We need an oversea military base, so what can you do about it?” Or, “We used to be comfortable negotiating with that party, but it’s a shame because that party is now in the opposition bloc.”
The seller may walk away. Or the selling country may buckle, thinking “That is one huge market and we can’t lose it.”
The “customers are the bosses” is not just a cliché. It’s also the most effective tool to dictate global politics if applied shrewdly.
When rivalry pauses and empathy reigns
July 4, 2025: Among things that put life into perspective is the untimely passing away of football star Diogo Jota.
Thursday’s car crash in Spain snatched away one of the sport’s great talents, who was young, had just won the English premiership medal in May and got married only 10 days before his death.
He was humble, always playing with a smile on his face. Rival fans could not bring themselves to hate him. Killed alongside him in the accident was his younger brother younger brother, André Silva, who was also a footballer.
Hours before he died, the Liverpool and Portuguese international star, born in 1996, had shared a final Instagram post. It was a video featuring some highlights from the wedding day with a caption: “A day we will never forget.”
Jürgen Klopp, a former Liverpool manager who worked with the player for a few years, said about the death: “There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it.”
It was a wedding photo of the beautiful couple and their three small kids that broke even the strongest hearts. Tributes and condolences poured in from around the football world and beyond. The UK government sent flowers. Real Madrid performed a one-minute silence during training. Manchester United online influencers in Thailand and everywhere overseas switched to respectful dresses, cancelled fan rivalry content and gave mournful expressions.
It was not a diplomatic, let’s-get-this-over-with attitude. The outpouring of empathy was heartfelt, with tears brimming in the eyes.
May you rest in peace, Diogo Jota.
"Weird" threatens to get weirder
July 3, 2025: Opposing politicians holding hands smilingly is normal, but there may be exceptions.
It took Anutin Charnvirakul just a few days to express that kind of camaraderie with People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut at an opposition meeting this week, in which Palang Pracharath’s Prawit Wongsuwan was nowhere to be seen.
How long did it take for Prawit and Natthaphong to start sharing the same table anyway, let alone posing together, beaming, for a photo op?
Of course, Anutin quickly dismissed reporters’ teasing speculation that he was trying to charm his way to the top in case Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is constitutionally disqualified.
“We’ve known each other for a long time and I was just there to tell everyone that we would perform as an opposition party to the best of our ability,” he said.
“Nothing you’ve heard or thought is true,” he told reporters.
He has to be right. The People’s Party supporting him (an out-of-this-world conspiracy theory in which the party would send him to the political summit while agreeing to remain in the opposition itself) will be way too far-fetched. It would top it all, being the mother of all ironies. The Pheu Thai-conservatives alliance would pale beside it.
But with the People’s Party having no prime ministerial nominee left, it can either vote to reject or support anybody else in case of a Paetongtarn disqualification. Anutin remains his party’s official candidate, so it’s normal that some people are having fun speculating, despite the two parties’ apparently-irreconcilable differences.
In addition to the notion that anything is possible in politics, parliamentary mathematics is another reason why many are dreaming. A strong alliance between Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party will need just a few rebellious government votes to finish off the other side.
It shouldn’t get any weirder than the handholding, though.
Everything tied together
July 2, 2025: How the judges will rule on the Paetongtarn case, what happens to the Bhumjaithai censure plan, whether an acting prime minister can dissolve the House, and where the People’s Party stands regarding the legal and political storms battling the prime minister are intricately linked together with the immediate course of Thailand at stake.
A House dissolution will definitely start a new chapter of uncertainties. However, whether it can happen at all is a question more immediate than when it will happen. If the Constitutional Court rules against Paetongtarn Shinawatra, there will be all kinds of legal and political questions/maneuverings. House dissolution will also become extremely controversial if Bhumjaithai’s censure plan materializes into a legitimate parliamentary motion.
The People’s Party is playing a big role. Supporting Bhumjaithai’s censure idea could delay the very thing the Oranges want the most, a House dissolution. A lot of noises are coming out of the People’s Party saying that censure timing has to be good, and “now” may not be so.
The disagreement is very understandable. Censuring Paetongtarn over the phone call between her and Hun Sen demands an awkward talk on an awkward issue which could favour “conservatives” more than “liberals”. Attacking Paetongtarn over Cambodia may make the People’s Party fall into the “national sovereignty trap”. In other words, the Oranges may have to side with extreme nationalism and favour an institution it always is critical of, the military.
A downright demise of Paetongtarn at the hands of the Constitutional Court could spare the People’s Party that misery, but it would create a new one, particularly if somehow the party needs Pheu Thai for a snap election alliance. A power fight over key ministries and big economic agendas could doom such a partnership. To underline the certainty of such conflicts emerging, the People’s Party has this week called for withdrawal of the Entertainment Complex bill, Pheu Thai’s heart and soul.
In case the House of Representatives stays with Paetongtarn gone, there will be controversies over who should and could replace her. Parties are running out of prime ministerial nominations and qualified nominees have serious problems more or less. A deadlock is highly possible.
World diplomacy may have changed forever
July 1, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension from duty follows a phone conversation at the highest national level, so everyone of her global counterparts had better watch out.
No disrespect to Cambodia, but if it can do it, anyone else will be tempted. Countries with greater technological advancement certainly can sabotage perceived enemies without a single shot fired.
This is what a popular AI system has to say about direct phone contacts between world leaders:
“Recordings are not typically public and are often kept confidential due to diplomatic sensitivities and national security concerns. The recordings can be subject to various levels of classification and are usually handled with great care. There have been instances of leaks or disclosures, but they are exceptions rather than the norm.”
Cambodia has made sure “rare” is not getting any rarer. It has shown the world how effectively and disastrously a leak can affect opponents at the highest level across the border.
It only took days for the leak of Paetongtarn’s phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen to trigger a massive protest against her in Thailand and result in her suspension from prime ministerial duty.
And Thailand is not the only “divided” country in the world where anti-government protests take place regularly for far “lesser” reasons.
Imagine things that are not supposed to go public between China and America or between America and Israel are leaked with certifiable voices. We can kiss “open-heart” phone calls between superpower leaders goodbye.
But it’s not just long-distance talks. There may come a day when Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and the likes are asked to leave their phones before entering a summit room. Maybe those people frisking each other before settling down together privately in that room is a bit of a stretch, but there’s a first time for everything.
Daily updates and opinions on local and world events by Tulsathit Taptim
