September 8, 2025: Credit when it’s due. The man was in Dubai hours before he might have to go to a “real” prison in Thailand.
Many may say Thaksin Shinawatra had little choice. But still the return had not been largely expected. One YouTube caption said it all: “Thaksin shocks political pundits (by returning)”. That confirms that even when the most educated Thai political analysts were concerned, few had expected his private jet to land back in Bangkok.
Speculation has been wild, just like when he sought to fly out of Thailand on the eve of the parliamentary vote to elect the new prime minister.
Pure guesswork. Thaksin might think he stands a good chance of getting a favorable ruling regarding the 14th floor controversy. Or he could be confident that the mechanism facilitating his return from exile is not totally gone, although the Pheu Thai Party is looking a lot more isolated this week than two years ago.
Or he is prepared for an unfavourable court ruling but betting on it to create a groundswell of sympathy that would reverse the fortunes of his embattled political party. Or he might fear that Pheu Thai, already in disarray, would hit rock bottom if he had stayed in Dubai. Or he is simply just tired of living in exile, which had kept him away from loved ones much of the time.
Only he knows why he has come back.
“Anyone but Red”
September 7, 2025: The Orange wants all critics of its “support” for Anutin Charnvirakul to just think about two years ago.
And the main target of the Orange outburst is the Red. You worked with Anutin from 2023 until very recently so how dare you have the audacity to criticise us! And as if that’s not enough, you are complaining about “twisted politics” as well.
The Orange, therefore, has a very good point in the on-going social media war between its supporters and the disgruntled and demoralised Red fandom.
Biting anti-Orange humours are abundant as Pheu Thai toys keep flying out of the pram. Social media posts shared virally have included such comments as “Orange saplings are growing into cannabis plants.” It mocks both the fact that the People’s Party is made primarily of young people and the Bhumjaithai Party’s everlasting enthusiasm about cannabis deregulation.
Here’s another Red comment: “Look who scolded Anutin when his party voted to elect a Pheu Thai prime minister. Why can’t the People’s Party be scolded for backing him now?”
An anti-establishment activist in exile, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, has joined the fray. In a post, he said: “Anyone can criticise the People’s Party except Pheu Thai. That’s simply because it lived with that guy for two years. This thick-skin behavior (of the Red) must stop.”
We are not thick-skinned and shameless, according to Pheu Thai’s former minister Jiraporn Sindhuprai. We are just confused, she said on her Facebook.
She said she never understood why 1. the People’s Party thinks charter reform has a better chance with Bhumjaithai than Pheu Thai 2. the People’s Party keeps saying it wants a House dissolution but chooses to vote for a delayed House dissolution instead of an immediate one promised by Pheu Thai, and 3. if Pheu Thai is not to be trusted, highly-conservative Bhumjaithai is more trustworthy in the People’s Party’s eyes.
Everyone agrees on one thing, though. They say the Thai politics has become so freaky. A lot of Orange people, both in Parliament and among the public, are reminding Anutin that he was elected to dissolve the House, not govern Thailand.
The Blue is laughing, obviously. Many other Thais are doing the same, although with some hidden pains.
West’s scepticism of China’s parade reeks of hypocrisy
September 6, 2025: Whom should we fear _ a neighbour cleaning up a pistol at home or another neighbour smashing stuff outside his?
China is the former, having held a grand military parade that is making both top rivals and smaller nations alike squirm. Its key opponents, or enemies if you will, are the latter although the term “liberation” more or less has helped diluted the fact that “liberating” is impossible without an invasion.
What worries you more _ China holding the jaw-dropping parade or US President Donald Trump rebranding the Pentagon as the “Department of War”? Which one is more provocative?
Several western news outlets have, while admitting that the Chinese parade this week was nothing short of an unprecedented military spectacle, criticised its “provocative” nature. They are talking about a world order that they imply should not be changed but Beijing wants to. One article ended with a conclusion that China’s impressive show of power might lead to a temptation to test it.
Who has tested military advancement against other nations? Who was the first to use an atomic bomb? Whose stealth jet fighters were launched against proclaimed enemies? Who always flex military muscles while asking “Us or them?”?
Last but not least, should the answers cause a bigger worry than that caused by a nation showcasing its military preparedness at home?
One military parade to humble them all
September 5, 2025: US President Donald Trump’s biggest mistake so far is not the tariffs.
It’s the American military parade in June, which he insisted on holding although a lot of people said it was unnecessary. The parade is being mocked retroactively around the globe after the Chinese have organised theirs this week.
The scales are being compared but the international “judges” have come up with the same “No comparison” conclusion in Beijing’s favour.
Doubters, if there are any, are advised to watch the highlights which are abundant on Youtube. Comments are 99.9 % in one direction. Overseas Chinese said they watched their country’s parade in proud, patriotic tears. Americans said they were embarrassed beyond words. Foreigners hailed China’s innovations, discipline, dedication and tolerance of “enemies’ propagandas”.
Many of the pro-China comments were at the US expense. They said mockingly that while all of the Chinese participants were soldiers who looked to be highly disciplined, young and energetic and took the parade very seriously, their American counterparts, some of them at least, looked like having just been dragged out of pubs and thinking they were having a stroll in the park. While the Chinese unison, enthusiasm and cohesion were impeccable, some American soldiers waved to the crowds and gave them their thumbs up.
Chinese and American leaders’ demeanours during their parades were scrutinised, too. Even the streets where heavy military automobiles rolled by were looked at closely. Again, no match. Comments said while American military jeeps ran and soldiers “walked” on cracked roads during their parade, Chinese military vehicles moved smoothly and troops “marched” on a gigantic, glamorous and perfect square.
One of the Chinese highlights was the elegant marching of young and beautiful female soldiers.
Granted, military parades can be nowhere near telling the whole story, especially when one organizer is a “free” country not familiar with such a thing and the other is anything but. Showcasing all the newest technology can also be a double-edged sword militarily. However, at times like this, with Americans being divided politically down the middle and China’s rise continuing at an exponential rate and encompassing many important aspects, the military parades enhance world perceptions about the two countries very significantly.
Trump's "Make America Great Again" is coming back to haunt him big time.
“Where is the American awe that I’ve seen in Hollywood movies?” one YouTube comment said below one of the rampant “comparison” clips. “Watching this (China’s parade) is like watching the empire parade in Star Wars,” said another comment on another clip.
World analysts believe that, without firing a single battlefield shot, China is humbling everyone. They view the superpowers’ parades as promotional posters at a time when world-order alliances are expanding, or shrinking, or fluid.
(For update and opinion on the Thai parliamentary vote to elect Anutin Charnvirakul as the new prime minister, click here.)
Will cobras strike again?
September 4, 2025: In politics, extreme betrayal can be either noble or evil genius, depending on how you look at it.
If or when the House of Representatives has to vote to elect a new prime minister, “cobras” are expected to crawl out of every corner of the Thai Parliament. Whether they can impact the outcome of the vote remains to be seen.
In Thai politics, MPs voting against resolutions of their parties are called cobras. The meaning is obvious and simple _ you bite the hand that feeds you and rescued you from starving. Late Samak Sundaravej was among the first to link the word “cobra” to politics with a very painful experience.
A famous cautionary tale has it that one farmer saw a cobra which was freezing to near death, so, out of pity, he gave it warmth by literally hugging it. Once the animal regained its strength, it fatally bit him.
Almost three decades ago, Samak, while leader of the Prachakorn Thai (Thai Citizen) Party, took a group of rebellious MPs under his wing, only for them to vote against a Prachakorn Thai resolution on who should be the new prime minister. They effectively changed Thailand’s political balance, giving the executive power to the opposition, to Samak’s great dismay.
It could be very close between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties if the House of Representatives has to vote to elect Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s replacement. In that case, a small number of cobras could dictate Thailand’s political course.
Which could renew the old controversial question of how much “independence” an MP can have against his or her own party, a debate that can last forever.
(Thai political cobras often strike when it is very close, like during those fateful Samak days. But, to be fair to them, their excuse is the same as the one used by those in the mainstream. They often say they do it so the country can move on.)
No necessary evil like ones in politics
September 3, 2025: When everyone ends up doing what he or she hates, the time bomb will keep ticking.
The Orange cannot be happy with helping the Blue, and vice versa. The Red certainly never wants a House dissolution, especially at a time like this.
But here we are. The People’s Party wants a major constitutional amendment so bad it is taking a previously-unthinkable action of vowing to conditionally support a prime ministerial candidate of the conservatives. Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party cannot be pleased if he is to lead, no matter how briefly, with virtually a main enemy pulling the strings.
Pheu Thai, meanwhile, has decided that if the party will eventually shrink further soon, then so be it. Problems with Cambodia will compound the misery of the last election if a new one is held now, but Pheu Thai has gone beyond caring.
In the big picture, nothing changes. Thailand’s Romance of the Three Kingdoms still features three irreconcilable rivals whose constantly-shifting “alliance” is just a dangerous pretense, temporary and self-serving.
On the surface, the People’s Party’s conditions look fair, as they embrace a public referendum on whether the charter should be amended. But they can be a lot better. Nowhere in there are ordinary people’s problems like concern about prevailing graft across the board seriously addressed.
In short, the conditions seem too ideological for comfort.
In calling Thailand’s political situation “twisted”, Pheu Thai’s Acting Prime Minister Bhumtham Wechayachai is right, but as long as he refuses to admit that his camp is a big part of the “twisted” landscape, he once again brings to the fore the reason why the country’s national divide is unsolvable.
Which is that while doing the most wrong thing to the country, everyone believes he or she is doing the right thing. That keeps misguided and clashing aspirations or motives the most influential part of the game. That keeps the time bomb perfectly alive.
West shuns it, but with one eye firmly on it
September 2, 2025: Western powers are too shy to attend China’s current military parade but finding it too significant to ignore.
It’s not the occasion China is purportedly marking (the end of the Second World War) that makes the parade a must-watch, but it’s the high-profile guests and Beijing’s surefire display of its military might.
At the parade, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be flanked by some world leaders most dreaded in the West – from Russia, North Korea, Iran and Myanmar – and a host of other leaders of the global south. You know who are going to be absent. Of course, most western bosses.
With Donald Trump’s foreign allies frowning on him virtually on a daily basis, Xi’s unspoken message will be that his “guests” look a lot more united. The world will be told, without Xi having to actually say it: “We are a more stable bunch, and check out our weapons.”
It will be one of China’s largest and most choreographed events in years. Set to be unveiled is cutting-edge equipment such as fighter jets, missile defense systems and hypersonic weapons. Newest military hardware capabilities will be shown. The Guardian calls them a showcase of “the results of a long-running modernisation drive of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”.
Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un will attend the victory day parade. It will be the first time the two have appeared in public together alongside Xi, noted The Guardian.
Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is also expected to be on there.
Torn between two enemies
September 1, 2025: The People's Party is making a choice, but why did it have to come to this?
It's simply choosing between an ex who has betrayed you like no one ever did and someone you, with every ounce of your body, have hated the most in the whole world.
Politics gives you that dilemma. Sooner or later, it does, without exception.
And politics' cruelty does not stop at that. The worst part is you can never know whether it will be the right decision this time, and, to be fair to the People's Party, even dumping them both cannot guarantee anything.
Updates of, and opinions on, local as well as international events by Tulsathit Taptim.
