April 7, 2025: When democracy dances with capitalism, this week’s stock crashes are always something waiting to happen.
Democracy can influence cross-border trades. That is unavoidable, or even understandable. But having democracy set up stock markets, let them borrow its principles (freedom and all) and attach their well-beings to how well the former is doing is a huge (if not impossible) stretch.
US President Donald Trump is being primarily blamed for the worldwide crashes of major stock markets this week, as his tariff policies are threatening major balance sheets all over the globe. To be fair to him, though, it was not him who advised that you should promote liberty by buying shares.
Capitalism needs stock markets, in order to differentiate itself from, say, communism. The founding concept is that everyone should have the freedom to invest, so that the state shall not take away everything. You should reap what you saw. That’s the idea, which unfortunately morphed into the apparent absurdity of linking stock markets with democracy.
It’s a good concept, at least when it was conjured up. When a rice farmer invested in a cow-farming company, it was something that probably should be done because it was well within a proper scope. But when that rice farmer started investing in an AI company, which specialised in things he or she knew nothing about, the concept stopped being good.
There was no way that the rice farmer would think “What if China came up with cheaper means to produce AI?”. The same goes for other amateurish stock traders. There was no way they could foresee a much-taunted Donald Trump winning a grand presidential mandate and then insanely raising import tariffs.
Here’s how it apparently goes in the world’s biggest mess: A lot of people in Village One use a lot of money to bet on Village Two being able to catch a lot of fish three years from now. In many cases, money is borrowed from Village Three to place the bets, and Village Three also loans a big sum to Village Two to finance its fishing operation. Village Four insures the debts. Village Five buy some of the "bad" debts. When the "bad" debts look really bad, Village Five sell them to Village Six, which is somehow convinced it could turn them into profits.
When an unexpected natural or man-made disaster hits Village Two, all hell breaks loose. By that, even pig farmers who otherwise have nothing to do with fish and Village Two are badly affected.
The above, simplified process explains all the burst stock “bubbles” and why their existence does not quite make sense. It was complicated enough without the insuring of loaned money and buying and selling of bad debts. When they added them to it, that’s how we got the “subprime” bubble pop in America some two decades ago which did not ruin just companies in the stock markets but also threatened to destroy the world economy.
When we take into account the unpredictability of a democratically-elected leader like Trump, stock markets can be like a bunch of blindfolded maniacs running around a minefield with wild abandon.
Even China, with all the “freedom” charges it faces, is not immune from the chaos.
Yes, some might argue that stock investment often comes with a warning that you invest at your own risks. But no warning is ever specific. Nobody has been warned that a pharmaceutical firm’s shares shall never be bought because some easy-to-find herbs may have the same effect as its miraculous drugs.
Before blaming Donald Trump for the scary stock plunges this week, blame the system that allows Capitalism to flirt with Democracy, and existed long before he was even born.
Paetongtarn censure came just days too early
April 7, 2025: If she had been grilled a bit later, the “father-daughter” issue would have been a much juicier subject and Thais would have been glued to TV.
So much for the prime minister’s claims that her government would listen to public opinions regarding the Entertainment Complex, and that Thaksin Shinawatra was just her beloved daddy who had no influences whatsoever in national administrative affairs.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s parliamentary censure has passed, and the old Thai saying that “Cha Cha Dai Pra Lem Gnarm” _ or “Slowly and you’ll get a beautiful knife” or “Patience is a virtue” _ never rings truer.
Make no mistake, the voting results would have been the same if the schedule had been changed. But we are talking about political impact here.
To be fair to the People’s Party, though, they couldn’t possibly have envisioned the Entertainment Complex bill being steamrolled right after Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s censure, the earthquake happening that should have been her government’s top priority, and Thaksin reportedly having the audacity to threaten coalition partners with expulsions if they do not vote for the bill.
There should be another chance for the opposition soon, however, because Thaksin is a gift that keeps on giving.
Democracy versus Democracy
April 6, 2025: Either what we're seeing is weird, or there is never a real democracy in the first place.
According to CNN, millions of people took part in protests against US President Donald Trump across America and around the world on Saturday, deeming his reign a “hostile takeover” and attack on American rights and freedoms.
CNN said over 1,400 “Hands Off!” mass protests have erupted in a country that just a few months ago had overwhelmingly elected Trump as the new president under a much-vaunted democratic system that gave hopes and aspirations to much of the world.
“So this is how liberty dies … with thunderous applause” is a famous Star Wars quote. It’s profound, but that is art imitating life, and life is a lot more dramatic in this case.
Are we witnessing an ultimate battle between two forces both calling themselves democracy, hence a strange phenomenon? Or are we seeing the burst of a bubble that its promoters often told us, wrongly if not deceptively, was solid and should be a good example for all?
In other words, is democracy real, or does it never exist in the first place?
In other words still, (and here's a question for both Trump haters and admirers), does democracy stop being democracy when it doesn't suit you?
Phumtham risks galvanising anti-casino movement
April 5, 2025: One political rule of thumb is that a government shall never devalue any street protest.
Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has violated that very rule, virtually calling people fighting against the Entertainment Complex idea a minority who are losing touch with reality.
That was gasoline, as a lot of hardline conservatives are saying, probably rightly.
It does not matter that he insists that Parliament should be the judge. He of all the people should realize that while any politician in power will say so, anybody else will beg to differ, and that if a protest is going to catch fire, whatever the government says does not mean anything.
Phumtham’s exact comment, which followed a recent anti-casino protest that was still relatively small: “Since we all agree to play by democratic rules, to have Parliament solve all problems, we must let Parliament handle this.
“It will never work if we are not going to take it when Parliament makes a decision that we don’t like.
“I have no problem with organizing street movements, which is the people’s right in a democracy. Just don’t call it the judgement of the country’s majority. Just don’t consider people gathering in front of Parliament as being the voice of the nation.”
That was not wrong. However, it’s interesting how Phumtham regards the red shirt protests that shut down the middle of Bangkok years ago. Did those protesters represent the voice of Thailand?
If Thai letter to Trump was uncensored
April 4, 2025: Think again if you want to cut anybody else loose. That is probably what is between the diplomatic lines of the Bangkok government’s response to US President Donald Trump’s jaw-dropping tariff increases.
The letter to Trump is extremely polite, featuring all the etiquette they use in global diplomacy. But as they say, diplomacy is the art of saying “Nice doggie” until you can find a rock.
The Thai official statement stated that Bangkok “understands” and really wants to sit down with Washington to discuss a softened measure that could benefit both sides.
Here is the key message: “The Thai Government wishes to affirm that Thailand has expressed its readiness to engage in dialogue with the United States at the earliest opportunity to achieve a fair trade balance that minimizes disruption to both economies. …
“Thailand reaffirms its commitment to being a reliable ally and economic partner, and will actively promote cooperation to jointly strengthen both countries’ agriculture and future-focused industries, helping to mitigate the impacts on both economies through constructive and timely dialogue.”
“Cooperation”, “commitment”, “constructive”, “strengthen”, “dialogue” and etc are in every diplomatic statement. The following is more layman, and is probably what Thailand wants to say:
“We have been nice to you and really want to remain so. Could you stop being a bully then so we can settle trade issues on equal footing?”
All Thai hearts beating as one
April 3, 2025: “Hang in there” is what everyone is saying, or wishing, or praying. It was after what sounded like a woman’s voice was heard from inside of the massive Chatuchak building wreckage.
Hope is hope, whether it is big or small, and no matter how many hours it has been since the building collapsed to its own footprint. The heavy machinery temporarily stopped humming, as everyone agreed that it was safer to work toward the source of the reported voice by hand. Everyone has been buoyed. More oxygen was rushed to the wreckage.
“Sister, please hang in there. Help is on the way,” a woman shouted into the debris. The voice, and then apparent knocks, reportedly came from at least three metres below. Between it and the rescuers are tons of concretes _ big slabs or ones broken into smaller pieces.
Reporters, like all Thais, are holding their breaths. “You may be hearing nothing because the heavy machines have temporarily stopped working,” one journalist at the scene said on a live broadcast. “But I can guarantee you. Everyone is working as fast as he or she possibly can.”
Earthquake and Entertainment Complex backlashes can converge
April 2: 2025: If the Paetongtarn government is seen as trying to steamroll the Entertainment Complex project at a time of great national sorrow, it could trigger a political uprising, analysts and activists have warned.
Sadness can turn into dissatisfaction and dissatisfaction can turn into widespread political anger that can only be vented on the Pheu Thai-led administration, it is warned.
The hardline conservatives who are always opposed to the Entertainment Complex idea, particularly one that would include a casino or legalized gambling, have asked prospective protesters to “get your shoes ready” because there could be a prolonged demonstration upcoming that might involve a lot of walking.
The opposition People’s Party, meanwhile, has shown it was against the Entertainment Complex plan, speaking out against the scheme during the recent censure debate. Although the conservatives and the People’s Party have always been like oil and water that should never blend, hasty progress of the controversial concept could do the unthinkable of temporarily uniting the two forces, it is said.
The possible mixing can be explosive for the Paetongtarn administration.
And the two camps can get strong support from the neutrals, who may feel that, with the current state of national grieving and various emergency issues to be looked at, like the plunging prices of condominium units, prioritising the Entertainment Complex is bad. In Parliament or anywhere else.
Simply put, the government cannot be seen as clearing the road for a quick implementation of the controversial project. If the administration does not want to be in the middle of a political upheaval, that is.
PM "wants swift probe" into building collapse
April 1, 2025: Construction or bidding questions related to the State Audit Office building which crumbled last Friday during a major earthquake centred in Myanmar will be at the heart of a government investigation, which the prime minister reportedly wants to be quick.
Reports quoting the government’s spokesman said Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra wanted the investigation to be wrapped up within one week. That is an unheard-of deadline when Thai probes into alleged government irregularities are concerned.
The spokesman, Jirayu Huangsap, quoted her as saying that Thailand “will find it hard to live” if no causes were established.
This seems consistent with an another report quoting Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong, who said the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) would play a leading role in the bidding investigation.
The promise of a swift probe has come amid what looks like a revamp of government attitude toward earthquake-related policies, which understandably might not have been intense previously. According to Jirayu, there would be intensified long-term, short-term and emergency measures including what children need to learn and how serious they need to learn it.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
