June 30, 2025: Main government and opposition parties normally don’t see eye to eye, but in Thailand things are far from normal.
In other words, Thailand is currently the Exhibit A of “anything can happen in politics.”
Two key things are perhaps rekindling the Pheu Thai-People’s Party old flame. The first is what critics always describe as “weaponisation of justice” which is closing in once again on the leadership of the main ruling party. The second is their opposition to coups, the possibility of which has been talked about again after a large number of anti-government protesters gathered at the Victory Monument at the weekend.
It’s not easy, if possible at all, for Pheu Thai and the People’s Party to be reunited in a government. Who would control the Finance Ministry and what would happen to the on-going and much-criticised Digital Wallet programme and the Entertainment Complex agenda are major questions. This does not include other things that the People’s Party, which thrives on being unbendable and cannot be seen as flip-flopping, used to say about Pheu Thai.
To sum it up, while there are signs of a way back into love, there are also mountains to climb.
Never-ending debate
June 29, 2025: The enormous scale of anti-government protest on Saturday has not only shaken the Paetongtarn coalition.
It has also revived a long-standing debate in which nobody is clearly right but no one is quite wrong, either.
How should we punish whom we think are bad politicians?
Wait for years to punish them although we know within our hearts that the damage they are causing us will only grow and become totally irreparable by then?
Look at America and Donald Trump. His critics say four full years and there may not be an election by that time to punish his decision to potentially drag the United States into a big war that very few Americans want.
“Punishing” Pheu Thai through the ballot boxes could lead to the déjà vu all over again. By that, it can join hands with some conservatives and lead a new coalition government one more time. Longer torment then, especially when Thailand has to deal with Cambodia legally, or diplomatically or economically in the future.
What should we do then?
A coup? It showed time and again that it set the clock back rather than taking the country forward. A legal crackdown? It only amplified double standards and persecuted political opponents instead of bringing about real justice.
That’s the core of the People’s Party’s argument, featuring in post-protest statements emerging from the Orange camp.
If we demand a coup every time elected representatives are perceived as failing, what is “democracy” for? We must keep eradicating bad weeds through our ballots and one day we will succeed. It will take time but we will achieve what a coup can never deliver _ a good government of the people and by the people.
When will that happen? The other side asks. Check out the United States. Some extreme anti-Trump Americans are even bemoaning the missed bullet right now. That’s a lot worse than calling for a coup.
And don’t tell us about impeachment. When was the last time it was successful, not just in Thailand or America, but anywhere else on earth? Parliamentary democracy guarantees immunity against impeachment. If abused shrewdly, parliamentary democracy gives you a license to cheat.
True democracy should produce accountability and trustworthiness, they say.
Democracy may have flaws, the other side shoots back, but it allows involvement of people’s counter actions when flaws are seen, and they will be seen. Dictatorship prevents public scrutiny and condemns citizens to accept corruption, suppression and whatever rulers do. No parliamentary criticism. No media exposure. No public inquiries. No questions asked.
Bad democratic apparatuses also coerce people to accept corruption, disguised suppression and whatever rulers do, it is argued. Dangerous flaws only come with their hair combed. Take the media for example. Wasn’t Trump deploring “fake news” directed against him by the Biden administration through surreptitiously-own media networks, but he is now being accused of lying through his teeth using the media on his side? Didn’t Trump come from “democracy”?
We are not saying Trump is a good democratic product, defenders of his country’s system insist. We are saying that democracy deserves to stumble and fall because political patience has its virtue. Impatience breeds opportunism and opportunism breeds tyranny that prohibits anyone from challenging someone like, well, Trump. A bad democratic ruler can be kicked out, but If you have a bad dictator, that’s the end of it.
Patience, yeah, right. Ask anti-Trump Americans if they are happy patience has led them to this, those not believing in the merit of electing-till-we-die concept quip.
Both sides are partly right. The problem is that each has focused on only the wrong things the other is saying. Nobody is trying to understand why the other side is saying what it is saying as a whole.
When people try to drum up the other side’s weak points and avoid discussing its strong ones, all the while turning a blind eye to their own problems, debate will never end.
Is Anutin realistic presenter of conservatives?
June 28, 2025: Some compare Anutin Charnvirakul to the only survivor of a crashed plane.
That is not a pretty comparison, but it fairly realistically describes a politician who, by choice or accident, has become the most outstanding in a crowd of conservatives in disarray.
The comparison came from the Bhumjaithai Party’s decision to pull out from the Paetongtarn coalition after the infamous leak of recorded phone conversation between the Thai and Cambodian leaders.
Debate is still going on regarding whether he has done the right thing, or whether he is an opportunist, or whether he did not have a choice with Pheu Thai going relentlessly after the Interior Ministry, but one thing is certain: He must be one of the most relieved men watching today’s anti-government protest that badly rattles a government he was once a key part of.
Now, the next step. Can he sustain the growing image of being the main conservative presenter? Again, either by choice or accident, the camp is likely to keep promoting him. He is more popular than Prawit Wongsuwan and his Bhumjaithai Party is bigger and more united than Palang Pracharath.
Anutin is probably less popular than Prayut Chan-o-cha but it’s obvious who has a better chance in cutthroat parliamentary politics. Unless rare circumstances call for a rare solution, that is.
As for conservative leaders in the Pheu Thai-led coalition, they are finished. Ideologically speaking, at least.
For years, Anutin had always been a prime ministerial candidate, but the conservatives’ first choices kept changing. The difference now is that his chances have significantly improved as their choices have become obviously more limited.
Shinawatras checkmated
June 27, 2025: Any lingering hope that the Paetongtarn government would scrape through must have been dashed.
Thais don’t trust Cambodia’s Hun Sen, but whatever he says about the Shinawatra family has been bought, bitterly by some and gratefully by others.
The ruling Thai coalition is untenable. It was very weak yesterday but it is comatose today due to Hun Sen. The Shinawatras are backpedaling, and so is the whole Pheu Thai Party. Thai politics will never be the same.
The domestic plot is thickening. It used to be that the conservatives feared the Orange so they joined hands with Pheu Thai to sideline it. Hun Sen has made sure that such an absurd alliance is seeing its last days.
He also has made a Red-Orange reunion highly impossible. Charges against the Shinawatras are too serious for the People’s Party to risk everything, facing legal troubles itself.
The dead end is just looming larger.
How much control should politics have over military?
June 26, 2025: The real question in the Paetongtarn-Hun Sen saga is the one least talked about.
Should we allow politicians to fully dictate the armed forces? It sounds like a subtext in the whole chapter of long-standing Thai-Cambodian border conflicts, but it in fact is a core national issue of divided Thailand.
It can also be said that it’s a core issue of global “democracy” as we know it.
Only dozens of protesters greeted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in Sa Kaeo at the Thai-Cambodian border this week, with banners deploring “treachery” at the national level. However, it was a glimpse of things to come this weekend in Bangkok.
It does not matter, though, how many demonstrators show up on Saturday. Even if the turnout is small, the pretest still subtly represents an everlasting and huge disagreement over how much control elected politicians should have over the military.
The Shinawatras, as we know, have personal connections with the Cambodian elites in power. Such connections, many believe, are affecting the Thai leadership’s judgements on border and other sovereignty affairs when it comes to Phnom Penh.
On the global scale, would America have bombed Iran had the president been somebody else? Would Israeli soldiers have received different orders had Benjamin Netanyahu not been in charge? What would the world look like if Donald Trump and Netanyahu were taken out of the equation?
Politicians come and go, but the military is here to stay. Should we have a military that sways constantly depending on which politician is in power, or should we trust the proclaimed virtue of allowing the people’s “representatives” to decide what is best militarily?
The military is not popular with the so-called liberals. It is like a warhorse that can only see straight, oblivious to anything else happening on both its sides.
Soldiers are like politicians, making what they can on the side, but whose ultimate goals are more trustworthy is the question here. Who should we trust more? One is programmed to carry out its job in a robotic manner with unwavering obligation bordering on aggression, and the other bases judgements on various things including expediency and personal ties.
Saturday will pass, and Paetongtarn will either be rattled or heave a sigh of relief and try to carry on. But the question will remain far longer either way.
Cambodia blurs Thai "colours"
June 25, 2025: It could be one of the biggest anti-government protests in years this weekend, but there’s other significance.
Thai YouTubers are talking about it, directly or indirectly asking the audiences who watch their channels to join. Several other celebrities are doing the same, through interviews or social media posts. Ordinary Thais are surreptitiously or openly asking their friends what they do on Saturday.
This is not to mention politically-organised mobs being mobilized by political animals with different and far-reaching connections.
It’s a phenomenon that must be worrying the prime minister. The most perturbing part is that the “colours” that were so clear-cut during the times of Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra have been all but mixed up. They are like, to allude to a popular song, watercolours in the rain.
All it takes is a leak from Cambodia.
Winning the battle but losing the war?
June 24, 2025: World opinions on Israel, America and Iran have changed forever.
At the UN, on the comment section of YouTube, or inside posts on other social media platforms, a phenomenon is materialising. The White House certainly is not liking it, ceasefire or no ceasefire.
America is being seen as a big bully, and by a large percentage of world population. Ten years ago, one wouldn’t expect an absurd amount of “Go, Iran, Go” comments among ordinary global citizens. But now, it's so prevalent that anyone can see.
Tehran is probably losing the battle, but irreparable political damage has been inflicted on the other side on an unprecedented international scale.
Here is a summary of reasons why: the fact that Israel and America have been saying for decades that Iran was weeks or even days away from developing a nuclear weapon; Iran being attacked first this time, first by Israel and then by the United States; atrocities in Gaza and US refusal to condemn them; internal American politics in which a huge number of US citizens are opposing Donald Trump or downright hating him; Trump’s America having made a promise to concentrate on national development and stay away from costly foreign wars that had nothing to do with it, only for that promise to crash and burn only six months into his four-year term; and the US tariff “insanity” that is still fresh on everyone’s mind.
This is arguably the most sarcastic western comment at the bottom of a news clip of MSNBC, a major American news channel: “I’m more worried about Trump having nuclear weapons than Iran (allegedly) developing them.”
This can be a close second (another comment posted in the same MSNBC clip): “Netanyahu is playing Washington like a fiddle.”
Hot on the heels of that: “MAGA (Make America Great Again) has become MIGA (Make Israel Great Again).”
Another major Thai irony
June 23, 2025: The People’s Party will only have Bhumjaithai to worry about in the next election.
It’s ironic, again, isn’t it? Two opposition parties will try to outrun each other and nobody else when Thais go to polls next time.
Pheu Thai’s release of a photo showing how “united” the coalition government is following Bhumjaithai’s withdrawal is apparently an electoral death sentence on the remaining conservative parties supporting Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
As for her and her party, the demise appears to have been there before the photo although they do not seem to realise it yet. From comments emerging from Pheu Thai, they are still excited about getting the Interior Ministry without having to fight.
Pheu Thai will very likely shrink further in the next election. Its conservative partners, who already did poorly in the last national poll, may suffer even more.
This leaves the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai. Problem is the former cannot get back to Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is finding itself in a similar situation. What will the next government look like?
Both People’s Party and Bhumjaithai need to win big in the next election, and each will only see the other significantly blocking that goal.
Make no mistake, Pheu Thai could still edge out Bhumjaithai in the next election and come second. But if you were the People's Party, you would welcome that rather than seeing Bhumjaithai getting too big.
Kiss diplomacy goodbye
June 22, 2025: Iran’s alleged nuclear targets have been bombed by America, but, real damage is far larger, and dangerously unrepairable.
In a single, brazen stroke, America has forever destroyed the very thing it vowed to cherish. (Not that everyone believed that pledge, though, but Donald Trump has just removed all the doubts.)
Trust in diplomacy has been blown away. Nobody will believe in the virtue of “peace summits” or that kind of things ever again.
It’s not just that, however. Next time Washington says something, other governments will consider it a potential lie, spewed out only in order to deceive or buy time. Potential military rivals will treat every invitation to a negotiating table as a joke. America may have won this time, but it is losing all the credibility when guiding the world toward peace is concerned.
When countries lose trust in diplomacy (and who should blame them?), the omnipresent international slogan will be “When in doubt, hit, don’t ask.” It’s a recipe for wars, big and small.
And the very people who put the world in such great danger are the ones who kept preaching values of diplomacy, toleration and understanding.
What else is Hun Sen hiding?
June 21, 2025: The Cambodian strongman (or people acting without his consent) is feeding Thai conspiracy theorists like crazy.
Pictures of Thaksin Shinawatra’s previous “guestroom” in Cambodia. Rumours and speculation about why and how a Cambodian dissident died in Thailand. Photos showing how close two big political Cambodian and Thai families have been.
Now, gossips about gold hidden away from Thai authorities.
And it’s not low-ranking conspiracy advocates who never leave their homes or basements, mind you. It goes to the very top of the anti-Shinawatra movement planning a major street demonstration against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and Thailand’s parliamentary opposition.
Amid the political and diplomatic uproar, Thaksin has been unusually quiet. That has fueled the conspiratorial rumours.
Hun Sen had said Pheu Thai owed him a debt of gratitude. Initially, it was assumed that he was directing his remark at key Red Shirt rebels needing refuge in Cambodia, but the “guestroom” photos have changed everything. He was probably saying “Shinawatras, do you remember what I did for you?”
The People’s Party’s Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn, who is sounding quite conservative when it comes to Cambodia and the ruling Shinawatras, said he believed Hun Sen had more up his sleeve.
He shared the opinion of many people that hidden microphones or cameras must have captured things that were seemingly harmless then but are politically damaging now.
He had a point. The Shinawatras spent long, intimate times with Hun Sen during which a lot of things must have been said or done. Another thing is that when Thaksin started to talk, he could be unstoppable.
Hun Sen has apparently been unstoppable as well. It’s fair to say that he and Cambodia are steps ahead of Thailand when utilising the social media is concerned. He has said the phone conversation clip that is dooming Paetongtarn was “unfortunately” leaked by one of the about 80 people who knew about its existence.
(If you find this hard to believe, you’re in good company. If you worked for Hun Sen, would you engineer a leakage that could be easily traced back to you?)
In a Facebook post, Hun Sen said something like “Too bad that decades of warm relationship is being destroyed by the leakage” that he knew nothing about.
He also has said that Thailand wants to make Cambodia suffer economically through immigration and petroleum measures but final results would be the opposite.
World opinions split in Iran's favour
June 20, 2025: The “Argo” days seem over, so to speak.
Hollywood’s Argo, released in 2012, depicted a frightening image of Iran and the impression had stuck for a long while. But nothing lasts forever.
A decade ago, Israel would have had a clear-cut home-field advantage in its military showdown with Iran. All of the “free world” (people and governments) would have stood firmly behind Benjamin Netanyahu.
Today, if comments in the social media are any indication, the game is being played on a neutral ground. That is to say the least. Iran might as well have a few more supporters in the stadium.
It took Gaza, the perception that Israel did it to Iran first and then got what was coming, and the increasing suspicion about America’s foreign policy to split what should have been unanimous “free world” opinions.
On YouTube, pro-Iran comments have prevailed. Although the United States and Israel are trying to say that Iran represents clear and present nuclear danger, those who bought it were far outnumbered by comments mentioning Gaza and karma.
Even clips generated by western news outlets like MSNBC are strewn with anti-war comments that condemn in advance Washington’s potential participation in the war.
One major disadvantage of networks like CNN or MSNBC is that while they are anti-Trump, they have to support the American foreign policy. Pro-Iran channels do not have that kind of dilemma.
It’s not the western media’s ambivalence toward Donald Trump that is causing the pro-Iran phenomenon on the social media, though. It’s a combination of factors dating back far beyond the time he retook the White House.
Thai coalition collapsing, bad uncle or bad niece
June 19, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s haters in Thailand may have to thank Hun Sen, because her coalition seems done.
It does not matter whether he is playing dirty, or whether she is too naïve to lead, or whether her leadership has truly been undeserved. Thailand’s freakish coalition government is apparently coming to an end thanks ironically to a man perceived as one of the best friends of the Thai leader’s family.
Bhumjaithai has quit the coalition, to loud cheers, and more departures appear on the way. A House dissolution looms, because the current parliamentary advantages of her ruling party are too slim. She can forget about bringing in Palang Pracharath, and the surge of nationalism as well as latest comments by Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn must have made her rule out the People’s Party as well. It’s an absolute deadlock.
And the “uncle” shall not celebrate either, because it’s going to be tougher for his country whoever comes to lead Thailand next. The leaked recorded phone conversation looks like a missile that doomed the Shinawatras, but it could lead to changes which can guarantee that whoever potentially replaces the niece, he or she wouldn’t treat him as a beloved relative.
Are old habits threatening MAGA?
June 18, 2025: Some believe that if Israel was Mike Tyson, then Iran was James “Buster” Douglas.
And America is a retiring boxing promoter who never thought that the “nothing” fight would drag him totally back into the bloody business.
To clarify the above analogy, Israel must have thought it could knock Iran out with one swift, heavy and unexpected punch in the first few seconds in the ring. Iran was stunned, fell to its knees but after a count of eight it got back up.
A lot of energy was used in that punch, and while Iran remained dazed, staggering, fire in its eyes told Israel that if the fight was to drag on, the much-proclaimed Iron Dome would be in trouble.
That is where the United States comes in. Donald Trump or any president of the United States can never leave Israel hanging. It does not matter what the rest of the world says or thinks regarding who started it, Washington has to stand by its dear friend, just like it did regarding Gaza.
But here’s the catch. With each passing day, Trump is in greater danger of making his MAGA agenda unravel. His “Make America Great Again” has been largely perceived as an intention to drastically tone down massive costs of military affairs not on American soil. It was generally understood that large amounts of money would be concentrated on the economy, infrastructure improvement and everything that would benefit the man on the street.
If James “Buster” Douglas had not gotten up after the first knockdown and then proceeded to demonstrate one of the steeliest fights the boxing world ever saw, everyone would have gone home and the boxing promoter would have been able to retire as publicly planned. As it turned out, the underdog didn’t read the script, leaving big marks on both Tyson and the promoter forever.
Hun Sen: You owe me debt of gratitude
June 17, 2025: Betrayal is normal in politics, so Cambodia and Thai “Red Shirts” should avoid discussing some past.
How many border demarcation lines are there? Who drew them? Which ones are legitimate? These questions are worth resolving although they have to do with the past.
But whether ruling Pheu Thai should be grateful toward Cambodia for welcoming Thai political rebels being hunted by Thai authorities years ago is an issue that should have been left alone.
Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, the strongman in his country, has been perceived as trying to remind the major ruling Thai party that it should think about what he did for its extremist activists while they were in disarray.
Here’s what he said as quoted by Khmer Times: “You once fled to Cambodia, and I welcomed you. I gave you food. I protected you. … You know what Hun Sen is capable of — so be a little more respectful.”
He mentioned Jatuporn Prompan in particular, who has joined hands with former yellow-shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul.
Hun Sen was talking about one of the worst-kept secrets in regional politics. But while everyone knows who accommodated fleeing Thai red-shirt rebels, should he talk about it now? Another question is: What Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Pheu Thai leaders in the Cabinet and Jatuporn should feel?
Curious Cambodian timeline
June 16, 2025: Diversion tactics are in Politics 101.
So, almost every politician is familiar (if not directly involved) with them. It is also why “conspiracy theorists” can never be eradicated from the planet.
This does not mean the military and diplomatic tension concerning the Thai-Cambodian border is absolutely not what it seems. However, it does not mean the timeline is not worth reading, either.
On May 1, America’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the US Treasury, proposed a rule to sever Cambodia’s Huione Group’s access to the American financial system over its alleged role in laundering funds from cyber heists and online scams.
The move followed extensive suspicions and investigations (taking place outside Cambodia) linking the politically-connected firm to money laundering networks tied to transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia dealing in online scams and cyber theft operations attributed to North Korea, allegedly.
Remember what Thaksin Shinawatra said about how easy it was to deal with scammers? Thailand’s comments and attitude toward this problem were not a nice thing to hear when Cambodia was concerned. (If you believe in conspiracy theories, of course.)
According to a media report coming out of FinCEN, the US agency found the high-profile business group laundered at least billions of US dollars in illicit proceeds between August 2021 and January 2025. The said conglomerate reportedly runs several “facilitating” marketplaces and finance apps. One platform has been allegedly linked to an enormous amount of suspected illicit transactions.
Hun To, a cousin of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, is a director of a Huione company. A google search result says that such a political connection “highlights a close link between the Huione group and the Cambodian government” through ruling political families.
The FinCen move took place after a hard-hitting article in The Diplomat, a mainstream media outlet based currently in the United States.
“A shadowy Cambodian holding company with ties to the highest levels of the country’s party-state has become the largest online criminal marketplace in history,” the article said in January, mentioning the business group’s name directly.
“Huione as a portrait of next-gen criminal dominance underscores both the relative profitability of cybercrime … and, equally important, the magnificent scale of operations that can be achieved when elite criminals enjoy reliable state backing,” the article charged.
Also The Diplomat: “Huione is also by no means an outlier in terms of Cambodian scam-invested elites and corporations with ties to the state.” It went on to list a number of high-level ruling political names but it said those names “are just a few of the many elites with evidenced ties to Cambodia’s scam compounds.”
The article said that for months since the global suspicions increased, the Cambodian government constantly moved to strongly deny the shocking allegations, which The Diplomat noticed were common throughout the Cambodian history that saw political rivals relying on fishy fundings.
On May 28, a clash occurred between Thai and Cambodian soldiers stationed at Chong Bok. Thai Media reports said the Thai military seemed to noticed movement of Cambodian troops in the area. The Cambodian media highlighted the Cambodian side’s reported damage and death.
Days afterwards, a Thai Facebook page asked everyone to check the timeline regarding FinCen and Huione. The page directly linked the border problem to FinCen’s initiative.
Huione faces next to zero scrutiny in Cambodia, especially now, when nationalism is surging thanks to the border situation.
Spectacular? Or boring? Or scary?
June 15, 2025: It’s not the Fourth of July yet, but Donald Trump will say “So what?”.
The military parade in America has taken place against a worrisome, to say the least, backdrop. The United States is being the most divided since the Civil War, with unprecedented and massive protests mocking and condemning the president spreading across the country, missiles are being exchanged between Iran and Israel, a major trade war is continuing between Washington and China and the rest of the world is backing Beijing on this one.
It was admittedly a grand military parade, celebrating the 250th anniversary of the US Army and falling on Trump’s birthday. Many streets of Washington were full of cheering crowds and fireworks lit the sky above.
Some Americans are saying the military parade makes them proud. A few others are simply shrugging. There are people who are neither proud nor contemptuous, though. They squirm at what they think looks too much North Korea for their liking. And at a time of Trump being called by many compatriots a dictator as well.
Mind you, if the Prayut government sent military troops to quell political protests and a foreign journalist was shot with a rubber bullet, America would be the first to deplore the dictatorial suppression of free speech.
The images and video footages of cars on fire, protesters scattering or playing cat and mouse with security forces and roadblocks materialising everywhere can make ones feel ambivalent. It appears like democracy is defending itself from hijackers, but the question is who is what? Who is democracy and who are hijackers?
People monitoring world news these days are not quite sure what should be prioritised. Some are watching the Middle East’s snowballing armed conflict with great concern, but others think what’s happening in America can affect the rest of the world more.
But they may be sharing a common prayer: “Dear Lord, whatever happens in the Middle East, please don’t let the dangerously-divided United States, ruled by an unpredictable and “uncontrollable” president who is publicly backing Israel, join in.”
Mahidol poll gives Bhumjaithai some relief
June 14, 2925: The Interior Ministry is way down the priority list of the Thai public when it comes to a Cabinet reshuffle, according to a recent opinion survey.
Pheu Thai should worry more about themselves instead of allegedly trying to wrestle the ministry out of the Bhumjaithai Party’s grasp. The Mahidol University poll covering more than 11,800 Thais shows that if there was to be a Cabinet shake-up, they want it to affect the Pheu Thai-controlled Defence Ministry first and foremost (46.75%).
Coming second in the Cabinet reshuffle priority table is also a Pheu Thai-controlled agency, the Finance Ministry, at 41.86%. The Interior Ministry is way down below, at the 12th place (just a little over 18%.)
But an overwhelming percentage of the respondents, 87.6%, wants a significant Cabinet change to improve economic efficiency, reduce corruption and make a lot of state policies clearer. Only 12.4% do not want a reshuffle, saying that the government’s performance is generally good, that trust in the government is already high, and that big changes which could affect continuity.
The poll took place after rampant reports and speculation that ruling Pheu Thai wanted to take the Interior Ministry from the Bhumjaithai Party.
Whole new phase in Middle East
June 13, 2025: One foreign analyst has told CNN something very bad could now happen in the world, as a result of Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran.
Basically, the analyst said a whole new unpredictable phase is unfolding in the Middle East after the strikes, which Iran has vowed to respond to and which the United States was quick to distance itself from.
The strikes reportedly killed top Iranian military officials and, initial reports say, and could set back Iran’s suspected nuclear programmes. Iran has threatened to respond in kind and Israel is on alert for a big revenge that could happen any minute.
The analyst is an expert on political and military affairs of the Middle East. He is genuinely fearing the worst.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran’s nuclear capabilities needed to be stopped because they posed a “clear and present danger” to his country. The operation to roll back those capabilities would continue no matter how long it takes, he said.
In a statement, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Israel “exposes global security to unprecedented threat” and the international community should condemn Netanyahu. Iran said the United States should also be held responsible.
What next?
June 12, 2025: One metaphor for the Medical Council’s latest act is a major surgery with a fifty-fifty chance.
For a long time, “ethics” have very much eluded the Thai society, more so among professions that are close to politics. The Medical Council has renewed public interest in the subject, but whether today’s vote, reaffirming its earlier decision against the public health minister's veto, will cause a big change on where Thais should place ethics _ on top of their lists or well below many things else _ remains to be seen.
That is for the long run. Immediate effects on the council’s action, however, are as unpredictable because it has to do with many things, namely the futures of Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin, Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the extremely-uneasy alliance between Pheu Thai and the conservatives, as well as the stance the People’s Party will take on whether and how Thaksin should be penalised.
Storm brews
June 11, 2025: Fasten your seatbelt either way. Whatever the outcomes of the Medical Council’s vote and then a court inquiry, the semblance of political peace that had been fragile from Day One and managed to last for so long will cease to exist.
The council overturning Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin’s veto could push Thaksin Shinawatra another step closer to imprisonment, influencing the court inquiry and effectively ending the freakish alliance that was forged after the last general election. An immediate political upheaval can happen before everyone’s eyes.
The council backtracking and thus going along with the veto may also trigger street turmoil. The court’s inquiry into whether Thaksin had received proper penalties could be weakened but troubles would occur all the same. Major problems can last months, though, in the manner of the anti-Thaksin rallies in mid 2000s, or the red-shirted uprising in 2010, or the protracted anti-amnesty demonstrations that led to the ouster of the Yingluck government in 2014.
It can be more worrisome and messier this time because a lot of key figures fighting one another during the aforementioned incidents are now on the same sides.
Civil War alarmists don’t like what they see
June 10, 2025: Immigration is a far cry from slavery, but the Trump-Newsom showdown, to many, is an eerie déjà vu.
First off, racism was an issue that flared up during the last presidential election and is now rearing its ugly head again with the faceoff between federal Donald Trump and the governor of California.
Immigration can snowball, just like slavery before it. Races play big roles in both.
Then national guards have been involved, and California’s highest ruler is accusing the central government of acting like a dictator.
Those feelings _ one side says you should know your place and the other says you are overstepping boundaries _ are what make people clash.
And all this Trump-Newsom tension is happening while the country is badly divided, and, again, much over races just like the infamous old days.
Donald Trump is a president much of America hates, bringing to mind the secession of several states when Abraham Lincoln won a presidential election. Gavin Newsom, meanwhile, lost much popularity after the recent LA fires but Democrats, both in Congress and on the streets, will back him to the hilt anyway if he picks up a fight with Trump.
The American Civil War broke out because there were fears Lincoln had an end-slavery agenda for the whole country. Now, people believe Trump has an extreme immigration policy to execute.
It would be “great” if Newsom was arrested, Trump said. Come and get me, the governor replied.
And Trump is just getting warmed up, in the face of increasing resentment among his enemies.
Just like that
June 9, 2025: Border tension easing is good, but it’s also a wonder they faced off in the first place.
Here’s what Cambodia’s Hun Sen has said on Facebook: “Adjusting military forces in conflict-prone areas through mutual understanding between the military commanders of both Cambodia and Thailand is essential to avoid large-scale violent clashes. The people of both Cambodia and Thailand genuinely desire lasting peace and do not wish to see war.”
Actually, he was just repeating what so many had said before him. Through many days of tension, triggered by official troop movements and provocative diplomatic actions, such pleas were abundant.
To be fair to the Cambodian authorities, their Thai counterparts are no less accommodative all of a sudden. There is a high-level Thai statement urging the Thai public not to call Cambodians’ troop pullback an act of backpedaling for that could spoil an atmosphere where both sides should celebrate.
Now, both countries can go back to non-military reciprocation, diplomatic or between non-governmental organisations like those responsible for boxing or beauty contests.
Long may this continue. But nobody can be too optimistic. Both countries have a cursed circle of excessive amicability, then border tension, then brink of military over-reaction, then “Let’s find an arbitrator” phase and then back to selfie amicability again.
The next flashpoint amid the uneasy and unexpected truce may arrive really quickly. The Cambodian government has cut short stays in Cambodia by Thai nationals to a maximum of seven days, instead of 60. This is similar to Thailand’s new immigration restriction, which came into effect yesterday, allowing Cambodians to stay in the country for only a week, after which they have to renew their visas or border passes, according to a report by the Khmer Times.
Voting controversies
June 8, 2025: Maybe the biggest irony in the on-going Medical Council saga is that June 12 will go down in history as one of the most important days for Thai democracy although it involves just about 70 people.
Imagine a small group of voters determining the direction of Thailand’s political course, in a democratic way of voting. Who says everyone in a country has to vote to guarantee a good political system of a nation?
Should the voting take place in the form of a roll call? Advocates of a roll call say it would make voters think more about public shame and it could guard against coercion and/or bribery. Those arguing against a roll call basically believe that secret voting would remove harassment fears and allow people to vote their conscience.
Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin has vetoed the Medical Council’s initial recommendation that three doctors must be penalised or reprimanded for the “improper” diagnosis of Thaksin Shinawatra’s health conditions allowing him to be treated at the Police Hospital and avoid actual jailing. The council needs to reaffirm that recommendation with at least two-thirds of the June 12 vote.
(To be fair to Somsak, he just activated his vetoing right like America activating its recently at the UN Security Council which sought to help Gaza. Democracy as we know it allows that.)
June 12 will not deliver a direct verdict on Thaksin, but what happens that day will have big ramifications on the Thai political journey. It will be seen as telltale signs of how politicians and professionals regard each other, of how the Thai society should regard all of them, and of how much hope Thais should realistically have on their political system.
Another controversy is related to the proposed roll call. If there is a roll call, should how each council member vote be made public unambiguously, so every Thai knows for sure who thinks what? (A roll call can take place behind camera although leaks to the media and public are always possible.)
China calls for peace; conservatives call for toughs
June 7, 2025: The balance the Thai government has to strike amid the Cambodian tension is striking.
The administration has to look tough enough to keep local critics at bay (and there are so many of them) but not to the point of turning the Chong Bok incident into a case of “one drop of honey.”
Just for your information, the “one drop of honey” tale goes more or less like this: Someone stumbles and spills a bottle of honey. Ants and other insects swarm around to feed on the drop. Small home lizards come to feed on them. A cat then comes to pounce on the lizards. A dog then comes to attack the cat.
Intermission.
The cat’s owner arrives at the scene and angrily beats the dog, breaking one of its legs. The dog’s owner comes to rescue the pet, hitting the cat’s owner, who runs to his/her father. The father slaps the dog’s owner around and, to cut a long story short, all hell breaks loose. It turns into a big, free-for-all and chaotic street fight requiring district officials’ intervention.
There are various versions of the tale, but all involve the insects, cat, dog and their owners. It is meant to teach people that sometimes a big problem occurs because of a very trivial thing.
China must have sensed something, with increasingly-scary troop movements on both sides of the Thai-Cambodian border. The Chinese Embassy in Bangkok issued a statement on its Facebook page this weekend, urging Thailand and Cambodia to exercise restraint. China even offered to facilitate peace talks.
“China adheres to the principle of solving conflicts through negotiation and consultation, to maintain peace and stability in the region,” said statement.
Both Thailand and Cambodia are China’s close neighbours and China hopes tensions will deescalate as quickly as possible.
Meanwhile, a hardcore and well-known conservative, Warong Dechgitvigrom, posted on his Facebook saying he was glad the Pheu Thai-controlled Defence Ministry “finally woke up” after going too easy on Cambodia for days.
Warong was obviously speaking on behalf of many Thai conservatives, who believe Cambodia has gone too far and the Pheu Thai-led government is having problems catching up.
“The waking up is good, because you guys have been way too soft,” Warong wrote. “You shouldn’t have used the term ‘No man’s land’ in the statements. Look what they said about the invasion. They said they were doing it on their land.
“You must understand the meanings of dignity and sovereignty. … (And) You must understand the feelings of the Thai people. …”
(Possible) Differences between Thailand and Cambodia
June 6, 2025: “Freedom” unfortunately can undermine unity. A glance through the home page of The Phnom Penh Post could give a feeling that the Cambodian government can luckily forget the local media and concentrate on smearing Bangkok.
There is zero criticism of the Cambodian administration on the website. It should be more or less the same when other news outlets of Cambodia are concerned. In Thailand, on the contrary, about half of the coverage is on military movements of both sides and the other half had to do with negative things about the Thai government regarding its handling of the latest border conflict.
One YouTube clip of a big Thai media organisation calls a senior Thai political office holder “Thai with a Cambodian heart” in the caption. That label came from what an opposition politician said, but you get the idea. The Thai media coverage has created another battlefront for the Paetongtarn government, which, believe it or not, has to assure Thais every day that the ruling politicians and the military are on the same page over Chong Bok.
Make no mistake, media freedom is great. At times like this, though, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Phumtham Wechayachai might not fully agree. In addition, we will never hear Cambodian leaders bemoan “fake news” from their domestic outlets.
Different US govt, same Gaza policy
June 5, 2025: Donald Trump has picked up where Joe Biden left off, when the Gaza atrocities are concerned.
The United States vetoing the latest UN Security Council draft resolution calling for unrestricted humanitarian aid and an immediate and unconditional ceasefire that would protect countless innocent women and children from bodily harm or even death has underlined the painful reality of the current “world order”. That reality gives politicians in office the power to determine (or disagree over) what is morally right or wrong.
This month marked the fifth time that the US has vetoed a Security Council draft ceasefire resolution in order to politically protect Israel. Biden’s Washington vetoed a similar resolution late last year.
According to The Guardian, the latest text was co-sponsored by Algeria, Denmark, Greece, Guyana, Pakistan, Panama, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Somalia. Russia, China, France and the UK voted in favour.
The United States basically and solely said it did not want to make the Hamas equal Israel as the latest draft seemed to suggest. The would-be resolution “draws a false equivalence between Israel and Hamas, or disregards Israel’s right to defend itself,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted as saying.
Simply put, that “false equivalence” is of absolute importance to the United States, more important than injuring, maiming or killing of the innocent of Gaza. Much of the world is outraged as a result, but it is helpless at the same time.
Paetongtarn scrapes through
June 4, 2025: In one media meeting, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra navigated, sort of, tough questions concerning the latest Thai-Cambodian border conflict.
The group interview has come against the backdrop of fierce media scrutiny that seemed to intensify amid the latest round of territorial dispute.
In it, she addressed issues of family ties with elite Cambodians, suspected conspiracies and whether Thailand has been too soft strategically in its response to the neighbouring country’s “aggression.”
On the family ties, she basically said a usually-cordial relationship was definitely better than a usually-hostile one. The Shinawatras’ normal friendliness towards high-ranking Cambodians would facilitate talks when problems emerged, she insisted.
When asked about “conspiracy” rumours, she said: “With whom? You mean between Thais and Cambodians? I don’t think so. There isn’t anything like that.
“I don’t deny that we (highest-ranking Thai and Cambodian officials) are friends. That is not a crime. Are you (the reporter asking the question) a friend of the one beside you? When conflicts happen, you try to sort them out peacefully, don’t you?”
But she added that you would fight to keep your home if a friend invaded your privacy.
She maintained that the relationship with the Cambodian rulers was on a “direct phone call” basis, which applied to other neighbouring nations like Malaysia as well.
A longer response had to do with whether Thailand could have been more aggressive at the border and internationally.
“We (ruling politicians) have been in close consultations with the military to make our analysis of the situation as accurate as possible. (For example,) we think about whether closing borders would lead to more tension and violence. We are in communications with the military even when we write statements,” she said.
On whether Thailand had been too much on the defensive, she invoked a key part of the national anthem which says “Thais love peace but will fight courageously” if they have to.
To be fair, she was walking a tightrope and managed to get to the other end. Barely just? Time will tell.
RIP, former teen idol
June 3, 2025: Pairoj Sangwoributr changed how Thai women regarded male superstars forever.
Before him, it had to be good, muscular looks in order to go far in the Thai cinematic world. He was a man anyone can fight, and even ladies who were physically strong enough could fancy a shot.
But no woman would fight him. Everyone was head over heels. Wai-onlawon (Age of fun-filled confusion and craziness) made him arguably the first teen sensation in Thailand. Boys rushed to buy guitars. Girls scrambled to get posters.
He would be the male celluloid magnet for years. A horde of Pairoj-style lead man stars would follow. They had to have boyish silliness, cool sense of humour and annoying yet adorable smirks. Muscles were unnecessary.
His film career expanded when he got older. His talent was not limited to acting, but directing as well. But for all this time, up until he passed away at the age of 72, Where is the toilet? that he sang while playing the guitar in Wai-onlawon was his biggest and most ever-lasting legacy.
May he rest in peace.
Kiss and slap
June 2, 2025: Everyone certainly remembers MoU44. Not everyone may remember the time when Thaksin Shinawatra, representing the Bangkok government, had to make Thais run for their lives from Cambodia. (Many Thai political activists were watching cartoons or not even born yet at the time.)
Everyone surely remembers the cordial group photos portraying the close ties the Shinawatras have with elite Cambodians. It was no secret either which country top red-shirt members escaped to, or passed through, at the height of their conflicts with Thai authorities.
But border skirmishes or disputes happened. It’s bewildering if we take into account some of the above. But it will not be so bewildering if we embrace some conspiracy theories.
A surge of nationalism is, in a way, good for ruling politicians. Some corrupt ones became national heroes thanks to wars (Ask key figures in the Russia-Ukraine war or the Gaza invasion). Some major football victories triggered mass celebrations and made the public forget daily woes.
In other words, a smart use of nationalism can be a great political distraction or even game changer.
All this does not mean the Thai-Cambodian ties have involved, with absolute certainty, conspiracies. It can be just a silly relationship alternating between violence and romance. It’s like your boyfriend slaps you one day and kisses you the next, and you can do nothing but try to “MoU44” your way through it.
Doctors versus politicians
June 1, 2025: A rare battle is unfolding. If, on June 12, at least 47 members of the Medical Council reaffirm its opinion on the Thaksin Shinawatra treatment at the Police Hospital, it will send major shockwaves through the political realm.
And vice versa. If the council, which has 70 members, fails to confirm the opinion that the treatment was suspicious and unethical, critics will say ruling politicians have made professionals know their place.
In fact, the 14th floor controversy is never a “grey” matter. By “grey”, one may think one way and the other the opposite. In this case, everyone knows why Thaksin ended up at the Police Hospital. It is actually a case of whether or not the Thai society, which brings together the public, political apparatus, bureaucracy and professionals, can always accept or always be made to accept what politicians fighting for powers say is acceptable.
It’s a case of whether politicians can go only so far in dictating or influencing public opinions, or the sky is the limit regarding what they can do.
Reports say lobbying has been in full swing. Every vote for or against will be intensely scrutinised in addition to absences. Some council members are entitled to sending representatives to the crucial voting, but representation in case of an absence is apparently not compulsory, meaning some members can probably just skip the session.
Political and ideological battlegrounds keep shifting in Thailand, and a profession long priding itself on noble acts is having its turn.
Daily updates and opinions on local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
