July 2, 2025: How the judges will rule on the Paetongtarn case, what happens to the Bhumjaithai censure plan, whether an acting prime minister can dissolve the House, and where the People’s Party stands regarding the legal and political storms battling the prime minister are intricately linked together with the immediate course of Thailand at stake.
A House dissolution will definitely start a new chapter of uncertainties. However, whether it can happen at all is a question more immediate than when it will happen. If the Constitutional Court rules against Paetongtarn Shinawatra, there will be all kinds of legal and political questions/maneuverings. House dissolution will also become extremely controversial if Bhumjaithai’s censure plan materializes into a legitimate parliamentary motion.
The People’s Party is playing a big role. Supporting Bhumjaithai’s censure idea could delay the very thing the Oranges want the most, a House dissolution. A lot of noises are coming out of the People’s Party saying that censure timing has to be good, and “now” may not be so.
The disagreement is very understandable. Censuring Paetongtarn over the phone call between her and Hun Sen demands an awkward talk on an awkward issue which could favour “conservatives” more than “liberals”. Attacking Paetongtarn over Cambodia may make the People’s Party fall into the “national sovereignty trap”. In other words, the Oranges may have to side with extreme nationalism and favour an institution it always is critical of, the military.
A downright demise of Paetongtarn at the hands of the Constitutional Court could spare the People’s Party that misery, but it would create a new one, particularly if somehow the party needs Pheu Thai for a snap election alliance. A power fight over key ministries and big economic agendas could doom such a partnership. To underline the certainty of such conflicts emerging, the People’s Party has this week called for withdrawal of the Entertainment Complex bill, Pheu Thai’s heart and soul.
In case the House of Representatives stays with Paetongtarn gone, there will be controversies over who should and could replace her. Parties are running out of prime ministerial nominations and qualified nominees have serious problems more or less. A deadlock is highly possible.
World diplomacy may have changed forever
July 1, 2025: Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension from duty follows a phone conversation at the highest national level, so everyone of her global counterparts had better watch out.
No disrespect to Cambodia, but if it can do it, anyone else will be tempted. Countries with greater technological advancement certainly can sabotage perceived enemies without a single shot fired.
This is what a popular AI system has to say about direct phone contacts between world leaders:
“Recordings are not typically public and are often kept confidential due to diplomatic sensitivities and national security concerns. The recordings can be subject to various levels of classification and are usually handled with great care. There have been instances of leaks or disclosures, but they are exceptions rather than the norm.”
Cambodia has made sure “rare” is not getting any rarer. It has shown the world how effectively and disastrously a leak can affect opponents at the highest level across the border.
It only took days for the leak of Paetongtarn’s phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen to trigger a massive protest against her in Thailand and result in her suspension from prime ministerial duty.
And Thailand is not the only “divided” country in the world where anti-government protests take place regularly for far “lesser” reasons.
Imagine things that are not supposed to go public between China and America or between America and Israel are leaked with certifiable voices. We can kiss “open-heart” phone calls between superpower leaders goodbye.
But it’s not just long-distance talks. There may come a day when Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and the likes are asked to leave their phones before entering a summit room. Maybe those people frisking each other before settling down together privately in that room is a bit of a stretch, but there’s a first time for everything.
Daily updates and opinions on local and world events by Tulsathit Taptim
