December 4, 2024: It was so simple in the last election, which saw anti-coup voters up against the other side.
The next election, expected to take place early next year, will be far more complex. Pheu Thai and the People’s Party (formerly Move Forward) are no longer allies. Conservative parties are also going separate ways. To add to that, there are other influential factors like the Thai-Cambodian dispute, scamming racketeering scandals, southern flooding, and, of course, a proposed charter reform.
Each of the aforementioned factors benefits some and puts others in a disadvantage. For example, the People’s Party might not gain politically from the Thai-Cambodia conflict as much, but it has its nose in front on scamming. The Democrat Party, meanwhile, is not prospering ideologically but it is seeing its southern fan base rebooting thanks in no small part to the massive flooding.
Proposed charter amendment might help the popularity of the People’s Party and Pheu Thai, but both camps can’t see eye to eye like before, having to fight for the same electoral market in fact. And while the Thai-Cambodian standoff could politically help the conservatives, they are very splintered and have their own big problems.
And, last but not least, there is no longer Prayut Chan-o-cha, who clearly divided the pre-2023 political landscape, providing clear-cut campaign war cries.
All these make the next election and its aftermath so unpredictable.
Anutin’s cryptic message
December 3, 2025: It could mean anything, from a House dissolution to a court ruling affecting a party’s future.
“Fasten your seatbelt” is all Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said regarding what would happen next week.
He did add that, as far as he is concerned, his government would have to go within January 31 because of a gentleman's agreement with the People’s Party. That means that if his government is to function beyond that, it will have to assume just a caretaking status overseeing a snap election.
On the remaining possibility of Pheu Thai submitting a no-confidence motion, he issued a standard “Everything has its process” reply. However, the general government and media moods are that Pheu Thai would not risk it, since Anutin’s government will not last long anyway.
An earlier-than-expected snap election will unlikely help Pheu Thai, and Anutin always threatened that he would dissolve the House of Representatives even before the end of the agreed timeline with the People’s Party if he smells a censure plan.
Anutin’s “Fasten your seatbelt” remark was a reply to a reporter who asked if there would be a “political accident” next week. He did not say it out of the blue.
Cambodian poll reveals how difficult true peace is
December 2, 2025: When governments fight but ordinary people are not in it, peace efforts are easy.
But when the citizens of warring countries really hate each other, it’s absolutely the other way round.
In a poll conducted last week by Khmer Times amid ongoing tensions between Cambodia and Thailand, an overwhelming 94% of 4,328 respondents supported a boycott of all things Thai, the Cambodian media outlet has announced. The support for boycott was always expected, but the overwhelming number of supporters is more worrisome than Hun Sen and his prime minister son verbally attacking Thailand.
Cambodians rely a lot on Thai goods, both in big industries or normal households, especially those at the border. For them to support a large-scale boycott in unison confirms that the anti-Thai sentiment has extended far beyond the political realm to cover an almost entire nation.
Why do peace plans look more realistic for, say, Ukraine and Gaza? It’s because large numbers of Israeli and Ukrainian people do not agree with their governments. A lot of Russians do not care about national security talks by Vladimir Putin, either.
It’s different when it comes to Thailand and Cambodia, with hateful rhetoric coming prevalently from the man on the street. All politicians wanting the tension to remain high have to do is fan the flame.
Said Khmer Times: “The response to the poll signifies not just a reaction to the detention of (Cambodian) soldiers but also highlights broader issues of national pride and self-determination. Many Cambodians view the boycott as a necessary measure to express their collective discontent with Thai actions, which they perceive as aggressive and manipulative.”
There is still the SEA Games to go.
Thailand’s oldest party has nose in front in South
December 1, 2025: Weeks ago, the Democrats were going into a coma. But a miracle may still happen.
A Hail Mary in October, a decision to bring back Abhisit Vejjajiva, can still prove a very good gamble if the latest NIDA survey is any indication.
The poll does not suggest a grand comeback, but it shows a vast improvement when the same pollsters’ findings just over a year ago were taken into account.
That one confirmed that Thailand’s oldest political party was hitting rock bottom, with leadership turmoil continuing and brain drains showing no signs of stopping. The NIDA poll last year surveyed southern backers of the Democrats, asking them what to do in the next election.
A staggering 41.3% said they would no longer vote for it. Another 41% said they were not so sure this time. Only slightly over 17% would still vote for the Democrats no matter what.
Probably Abhisit’s “stubbornness” and his hard-to-read ideological stand had partly to do with the party’s decline. Yet if the party somehow exceeded low expectations early next year, it will add to a lengthening list of major political ironies Thailand has been experiencing.
Southerners electorally up for grabs
November 30, 2025: Once upon a time there was no need to predict election results in southern Thailand.
The region, under the Democrat Party’s iron grip a decade or so ago, is now a political lottery. That’s what the most recent NIDA poll has found.
The mega floods may have been a big factor, whose lifespan remains to be seen. The survey of 2,000 people covering 14 provinces has found that as many as 32.25% of them favoured no particular prime ministerial candidate. That’s the biggest group, followed by the Democrat Party’s Abhisit Vejjajiva (25.65%), Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party (15.40%) and Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut of the People’s Party (12.85%).
As we can see, even if Anutin and Natthaphong were combined, the support for both men who are favourites for the top job after the next election would still be less than the number of people who say they still don’t like anyone.
When asked about parties they support, the hard-to-please group slid to second, but was almost as big as the group backing the Democrat Party. It was 28.60% against 28.45%, virtually inseparable.
The People’s Party came third (17.80%) and the Bhumjaithai Party (11.65%).
The race is wide open.
Daily updates of, and opinions on, local and global events.
