January 7, 2025: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will be naturally the opposition’s biggest target in the next no-confidence offensive, but the People’s Party will continue to have a tricky mountain to climb when it comes to her father.
As a so-called “liberal” party opposed to the kind of political “persecution” Thaksin Shinawatra always claimed he faced, the People’s Party will still have to walk a tightrope while addressing the “14th Police Hospital floor” issue which, to many, is one of the weakest points of the Paetongtarn administration.
And as usual, the People’s Party will be judged by the neutrals on “information”, not rhetoric at the censure. Its support or opposition will not be changed by three or four days of no-confidence debate anyway, because that is an ideological matter. To win the hearts of those in between, the party will need to show it’s also good at other aspects of parliamentary duties.
The party’s whip leader Pakornwut Udompipatskul has confirmed that the censure will come either at the end of February or at the beginning of March, depending on everyone’s convenience. There will be both public issues that the people are familiar with and “stories nobody has never heard of before.”
Some information would surprise even certain People’s Party MPs, he said.
Pakornwut noted that while all governments survived no-confidence vote in the past, the Paetongtarn administration had unity problems that could be more or less exploited. Some surprises could even be sprung at the voting, his party hopes.
He reiterated that while Paetongtarn was only months into her government leadership, this government was a lot older and nothing has changed economically and socially thanks to the ruling coalition.
He was elusive, though, when asked by reporters how the People’s Party would tackle the Thaksin issue. “We will address manipulation of the justice system as a whole, a distortion aimed at benefiting certain people,” he said.
Asked if the People’s Party was worried that the public would perceive it as “telling same-old stories”, Pakornwut provided a witty response. “Telling old stories means we are serious, doesn’it?”
Small world for Israel? But Trump will make it great again
January 6, 2025: Soldiers receive and obey orders, so it’s debatable if what looks like a rare campaign to bring legal action to Israeli troopers for the Gaza atrocity is fair.
But it’s happening. According to CNN, a former Israeli soldier on vacation in Brazil had to flee the country suddenly after a case was brought against him there alleging he was responsible for war crimes while serving in Gaza.
It’s apparently a shift in the strategy of human rights activists who normally had focused on policy-makers, not those told to implement policies and were unable to avoid them. The Brazilian case is the latest in a series of lawsuits brought by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), a pro-Palestinian NGO, that has tracked the activities of hundreds of Israeli soldiers involved in Gaza activities.
CNN reported that HRF’s website showed the movement has also sought the apprehension of Israeli soldiers visiting Thailand, Sri Lanka, Chile and other countries. A former senior officer in Israel’s Judge Advocate General’s department was quoted by CNN as saying that there were intensifying overseas attempts to bring charges against Israelis who served in Gaza, although the campaign had not resulted in arrest or trial.
“Moms Up,” a group of Israeli soldiers’ mothers, is deeply worried by the campaign and has written to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff following the case in Brazil. Said the group: “We see you as the sole responsible party for removing the legal risk facing our children.”
Gaza-related global developments will likely be heated up after Donald Trump’s second term as the US president officially begins later this month. He is said to be planning devastating sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), with executive orders expected within days of his inauguration. The package could force financial institutions worldwide to terminate or downgrade relationships with ICC personnel and the agency as a whole or face US sanctions themselves.
Reportedly, ICC staff would find it extremely difficult to perform routine banking operations or use credit cards. A lot of their financial activities could be practically frozen except for essential needs like food purchases.
Why is Trump reportedly doing it? The “sanctions” are meant to force the court to withdraw the arrest warrants issued against Netanyahu and some other high-profile leaders responsible for the Gaza infamy.
Does "You're grounded" violate human rights, too?
January 5, 2025: No student likes hair rules. So, doing away with student hairstyle regulations hardly irks the conservatives who used to be children before. After all, how one wears his or her hair does not affect skills, capability or potentials unless you are in specific fields like swimming.
However, to associate student hair rules with human rights stretches it a little bit.
Children faces many rules, many of which are meant to prepare them for the type of discipline that adulthood will require. Why can’t students google for exam answers? Because there is no way else to judge if they had paid attention to what was taught. Why are school uniforms considered (by some) to be important? Let’s wait until 7-Eleven scrap costume requirement for employees and perhaps we can debate. Let’s wait until male MPs can wear shorts to Parliament and then we probably can talk about school uniforms.
Why do school disciplinarians who are chimneys themselves punish students who are caught smoking?
To take it to the extreme, is “You’re grounded” order western parents like to say is a violation of human rights as well? How is it different from school hairstyle or dress rules, which make children unhappy, restrict their “freedom” and would only cause disgruntlement that limits their “potentials”?
Will you ground your kids who come home with half their heads shaved and the long hair on the other half dyed bright red who said it’s their “human rights” to do so? What if the kids with the funny heads go on to be miserable adults who lack basic human rights necessities like foods or shelters? That will be supremely ironic.
How money twists or corrupts politics
January 4, 2025: What’s the deal with political leaders having to be ultra-rich? Thailand, whose average debt per household is more than Bt600,000, has a prime minister whose wardrobe alone (watches included) is worth hundreds of millions of baht and Donald Trump’s net worth is in the billions of US dollars. To add insult to injury, they need donations from ordinary (extraordinarily-poor) citizens for electoral campaigns, here and in the United States.
How have the Shinawatras navigated the political risks associated with being obscenely rich? Of course, they have to make extravagant promises that keep voters hopeful. We have done it so you guys can do it too, every single political leader who is a “successful” business entrepreneur tell his or her public. We are rich because we are smart, so trust us and all will be fine.
Some others use touchable money as a click-bait. “Digital wallet” is just one example of how to keep suspicion at bay. In America, outgoing President Joe Biden has given a weird explanation on why the Democrats fared poorly in the November elections: “I didn’t sign COVID-19 relief checks.”
Either American voters are greedy or Biden was wrongly insulting his own compatriots.
Conventional tyrants, now or in the past, have done it openly, implementing systems of tributes, oppressive taxations or property seizures without excuses. In democracies, measures have to be a lot better camouflaged. Creativity is essential, and it’s a big reason why the world has seen some curious stock or financial instruments and witnessed bank collapses that hurt anyone but the bankers.
Will Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s asset declaration come back to haunt her? Her father’s wealth both enhanced his “economic genius” status and destroyed him politically. (Let’s not forget that Thaksin Shinawatra took over a political party led by one of the most frugal men in politics and somehow managed to build a global status of being a “champion of the poor”. How ironic is that?)
By all indications, Thaksin is attempting to make a comeback using his biological connection with Paetongtarn. But big wealth is a funny thing in politics. It’s all good when it’s on your side, but when it turns against you, it’s devastating.
Significant findings in latest popularity poll
January 3, 2025: It’s debatable what the biggest message of the latest NIDA survey is. The yearend poll on who the most popular politician is contains a few subtle changes in public opinions, and while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut are competing neck and neck for the top spot, the quiet yet remarkable rise of United Thai Nation leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga shall not go unnoticed.
Natthaphong has edged Paetongtarn to the top spot as the most popular politician for the premiership, winning 29.85% of support from 2,000 people surveyed, compared with 28.8% for her.
Energy Minister Pirapan, though, continues to climb little by little, getting 10.25%. It's the first time he has broken through the 10% barrier in a popularity survey, and he had taken baby steps forward in every previous poll, while most other politicians have experienced roller-coaster situations.
One thing that might prevent Natthaphong from extreme celebrations is the fact that his People’s Party is farther away from Pheu Thai in popularity when compared with him and Paetongtarn. The People’s Party is clearly the most popular with 37.3% support. Pheu Thai has 27.7%.
United Thai Nation, on the other hand, gets a percentage that is consistent with Pirapan’s popularity. The party is supported by 10.6%, coming third. Bhumjaithai comes fifth with 5.15% and its leader Anutin Charnvirakul is also the fifth most popular politician with 6.45%.
As for the undecided, 14.4% do not have any prime ministerial candidate in minds, being the third biggest group in the “most-liked politician” department, while 8.2% (fourth biggest group in the popular party category) do not like any of the political parties.
Fresh violence in US ushers in new president
January 2, 2025: Every clue indicates that Donald Trump’s second term can be more treacherous than people thought.
The New Orleans tragedy and the Las Vegas cybertruck explosion, an incident whose details remain sketchy and unclear, are a prelude to what is expected to be the most awkward, most controversial, and possibly most scandalous, presidential transition ever.
While more information needs to come out of the Las Vegas incident, it involves a Tesla cybertruck and a Trump hotel. Moreover, the vehicle was rented from the company that was also named in the New Orleans case. These “coincidences” are being investigated.
Everyone knows that it will be extremely difficult for Trump to reign over a badly-divided superpower nation confronted with the inexorable rise of China, escalating tension in the Middle East and the increasingly-controversial war in Ukraine, but the two domestic incidents are alarming signs that big local and international troubles could come a lot sooner than expected and their magnitudes could even be greater than initially thought.
Meanwhile, credit where credit’s due. The NPR, whose neutrality has been questioned by many in and outside the United States, has published stinging questions for the outgoing US president before he leaves office in about two weeks.
With speculation intensifying over whether and how Joe Biden, whose health is reported to be declining rapidly, will have a farewell media session, the NPR is not waiting. The National Public Radio, followed religiously by many Americans and frowned upon by others, has its White House correspondents ask the following questions which admittedly are tough to answer:
You campaigned on the idea that Trump was a threat to democracy. Do you still believe he's an existential threat to democracy? And what's your message to the many Democrats who worry he is?
If Donald Trump was such a terrible president the first time, as you and many Democrats suggested, why did Americans want him back?
You said that the prosecution of your son Hunter Biden had been politicized. Trump says the same thing about the charges against him. Do you feel that the prosecution of Trump was politicized in any way? If not, do you worry about giving credibility to Trump's arguments of an unfair prosecution?
These questions can be the first things that come to minds of journalistic students overseas, but they are not expected from a leading American media outlet that is not Fox News. You will not see the editorial boards of the likes of the CNN, the Washington Post, Time or etc coming up with such questions and posting them prominently on their websites.
More NPR questions have to do with the borders, the Democrat leadership, the possibly long-overdue timing of Biden stepping aside for Kamala Harris, his belief on his “achievements” and his thoughts on how long America will have to wait for a female president.
Biden can just ignore them all. Trump, on the other hand, will face ultra-hostile mainstream media throughout the next four years.
Hello and Goodbye
December 31, 2024-January 1, 2025: People say we just said goodbye to 2023 and welcomed 2024 yesterday, but truth is that we will say the same thing about 2025 in no time.
“New Year” is weird. New today, not so new tomorrow, “how time flies!” weeks from now and before we know it it’s bye-bye all over again.
The whole concept of time is weird, though. As late and famous comedian George Carlin used to say, there is no now, and everything is either the nearest future or the most recent past.
Time is the most mind-boggling thing ever. We live our whole lives pitying the mosquitos for having such “short” life spans (a week or so for males and just a few weeks for the females), but from their perspectives, they could live incredibly long and have a lot more “new years” than us.
We all know why our dogs are so glad to see us in the evening after we left home for work in the morning. It’s because their body clocks say you have been gone for a long, long time. They aren’t pretending or over-reacting. They just miss us miserably.
Scientific studies seem to suggest that the more agile a species is, the “more frames” it can perceive per second. In other words, time goes slower for them. That comes in handy for animals that can fly (so they can avoid collisions) or are predators (so they are very effective in anticipating the moves of their preys).
Some studies even suggest that best goalkeepers see “more frames” per second than normal people, which allow them to react quicker than most others.
That scene in Interstellar, where the hero and heroine come back from an hour-long mission to find that another crew member left behind to man a spaceship has become an old man, only scratches the surface when time is concerned.
If you think 2024 has come and gone so fast, congratulations, because you have not been too idle. Imagine you are in a prison, it must be super slow.
Sizes, experiences, agility, gravity, environment _ you name it _ all affect perceptions of time. Here’s what Albert Einstein said: “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. That's relativity.”
So, if you think 2024 is whizzing by, you have been sitting with a pretty girl or handsome boy.
Happy New Year by the way. Make the next 12 months, either they are slow or fast for you, count. Also, remember that when we think “What? It’s New Year again?”, someone somewhere is counting the days for it, if it’s an occasion of seeing you again.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
