June 13, 2024: Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt’s apparent love affair with exercise equipment continues, with the latest controversy involving human-powered watercraft known as “the duckling”.
The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has bought the exercise and recreation vehicle at a price higher than it’s generally sold in the market, it has been alleged. This claim quickly followed an accusation that the BMA was overspending on treadmills purchased for public use.
“Chadchart is not slowing down”, says a mainstream media headline. The duckling pedal boat was bought at allegedly several thousands of baht more expensive than the market price.
The information came from a Facebook page of the “Strong” club which has a sizeable following on the social media due to its perceived anti-corruption campaign. Accompanying the page’s scrutiny was a BMA own announcement on the duckling boat bidding.
“Wherever you dig, you seem to find something,” the same news article said.
June 12, 2024: Don’t quickly assume that the Trump-is-persecuted narrative has been shattered now that the sitting US president’s son is convicted. In politics, anything can happen, like a politician in Thailand bombing his own home to court sympathy vote decades ago.
Hunter Biden has been convicted for lying during his gun application, with a possible yet unlikely jail term as punishment. Prison time is a very long shot according to many legal analysts, who point to the fact that he is a first-time offender.
Hunter Biden was convicted under a law seeking to prevent drug users from owning firearms. While we await the tell-tale sentence, the political apparatus of Joe Biden is saying that Donald Trump, the president’s direct challenger in the November election if things don’t dramatically change, can no longer claim he is a victim of the White House’s “weaponisation of justice”.
Look at what’s happening to the president’s son, the pro-Biden mechanisms say.
Trump’s conviction backfired badly against the US government. The Democrats are apparently hoping that the “straightforward” process of Hunter Biden’s case would repair the damage. However, people are comparing the enormity of his crime against the president’s son’s.
On the surface, it looks like serious legal violations of someone who was in high office and should have known better against illegal yet trivial oversight that, if at all, could cause less harm.
June 11, 2024: Is what’s happening in one of democratic western countries virtually a monarchial coup carried out by an elected politician who considers himself a king?
Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, one of Thailand’s biggest anti-establishment figures, thinks so. And the fact that it comes from him is a jaw-dropper.
“It’s likely that France may now get a leader from the far right,” he posted on his Facebook. The angry tone made an apparent pro-democracy stand of his more perplexing, since an election is generally thought as a democratic exercise.
He said developments in France showed the country was creeping toward a system in which one “who is not accountable to Parliament can control Parliament.”
He said Macron was becoming an elected politician who wanted to be king, exercising power in the way that only monarchs in the absolute monarchy system would do.
The former political big gun and France go back a long way. His knowledge and ideology were formed and accumulated during his study in the European country.
For him to turn against France vehemently used to be unthinkable. But all it takes is Macron’s dissolution of the lower house of Parliament this week that bewildered much of the world and angered Piyabutr.
Rightist surge in France is a big deal and can be a direct problem for the European Union. When that is coupled with signs in America where the Democrats are being on the back foot, the “liberals” have a genuine cause for worries.
Earlier, Macron confounded both liberals and conservatives alike. Months ago, in a perceived bid to make himself more appealing to traditionalist right-wing people, he suggested he wanted the French to produce more babies, perform mandatory national service and go back to wearing school uniforms.
That was the first time “progressive” eyes in Thailand popped.
But hold your horses if you are about to come to a conclusion that he is an absolute conservative inside someone who happens to be young. The man is a politician facing an increasingly tough popularity contest against far-right leaders. His “arrogance” is coming into play as everyone analyses his possible motives. So, it remains to be seen if it’s ego, or ideology, or a combination of the two.
Macron is reportedly loved by many retirees despite being the youngest president in French history. More than once he politely dismissed the idea that he was pushing an “old-fashioned” agenda, although he insisted on the importance of “order” and “symbols” to restore common values in a “fluid society.”
As they say, today’s “liberals” can be tomorrow’s “conservatives”, and vice versa.
June 10, 2024: It’s the same as when your girlfriend says “I’m fine” and you know immediately that you are in serious trouble.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, in his latest interview dealing with his relationship with coalition allies and the Palang Pracharath Party in particular, insisted he was not seeing any problem. If dissected, his comment reflects a major trouble that he tries to play down publicly.
The biggest evidence of big problems was his insistence that there was no need to sort things out with Palang Pracharath leader Prawit Wongsuwan because anything could be discussed through the latter’s representatives.
If you are holding stocks that depend on government stability, sell. Common sense calls for anyone in Srettha’s position to talk to Prawit directly on serious matters, or serious speculation, or serious rumours. When you heard that a friend was betraying you, you dial the friend instantly. You don’t talk to the friend’s friend or any other person.
Srettha said this: “I don’t (usually) meet Gen Prawit. Every time it was a discussion through coalition representatives, be it Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan or Thammanat Prompao.”
So, if that’s true, Thais are having a coalition government whose leaders are not talking directly on important matters. It’s a wonder what kind of discussions have been talking place on serious issues like digital wallet or the cannabis or proposed constitutional amendment.
“We are seeing increasingly weird signs,” said a mainstream media analysis on Thaksin Shinawatra’s statement which many believed was directed Prawit and which led to questions bombarding Srettha.
June 9, 2024: He has done the expected things of condemning Myanmar’s military junta and emphasizing the urgency of climate action, but United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has sent chills down everyone’s spine with another subject.
This is not to belittle the issues that he was addressing. This is to say that his warning of a nuclear war is the most impassioned and serious statement yet by a UN chief since the Cold War. And he gave strong reasons to back up his fear that it might actually happen in the near future.
The reasons include the weakening of global mechanisms supervising and preventing the use, testing and proliferation of nuclear weapons; increasing application of AI and its growing unpredictability; accumulating world flash-points that are direct confrontational grounds of nuclear powers; and mounting excuses for activating doomsday tools for “self defence”.
“Humanity is on a knife’s edge; the risk of a nuclear weapon being used has reached heights not seen since the Cold War,” Guterres warned everyone during what was supposed to be a routine, annual arms-control conference. “States are engaged in a qualitative arms race. Technologies like artificial intelligence are multiplying the danger.”
The following is debatable, however. He said: “All countries must agree that any decision on nuclear use is made by humans, not machines or algorithms.”
He might have watched too many Terminator movies and thus given humans too much credit. If AI algorithms are written for goodness’ sake, there should be nothing for us to worry about. If the algorithms are military oriented, whose fault is that? Aren’t humans the writers?
In other words, if well-meaning AI made military decisions, it would try its best to avoid Armageddon. If AI is not so well-meaning, we should blame the ones who planted the ideas.
June 8, 2024: Whatever happens to Thaksin Shinawatra 10 days from now, it may impact Thai politics more than if Move Forward is dissolved or even if Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin loses his job.
Potential Move Forward dissolution could be just perceived as a formality, one which confirms what Thais and people around the world already know _ a deeply-divided politics of Thailand.
Srettha, no offence to him, is just a proxy. Late Samak Sundaravej is a testament to the painful fact that we all have been there before. Big turmoil it will be if the worst happens to the prime minister, but there are possibilities that he could be let off the hook in the Prayut-esque manner. In other words, a scenario exists in which the Pitchit Chuenban case will just fade away.
But if Thaksin is put in jail, or if he is granted bail, or if he slips into exile again, it will be a totally new treacherous territory. It does not really matter what happens. There is no possibility that the problem will fade. The danger which has been lurking in the waters will loom a lot larger.
Some may say a bail should postpone a sudden earthquake. That might be true, but what will it mean for Thailand in the big picture and in the long run? Thaksin and Pheu Thai will try to hold on to political power over the next few years for his sake. They would do whatever necessary and it would be at the expense of many things including its already-estranged relationship with Move Forward.
The bail will just buy time. He will continue to be the biggest thorn in the conservatives’ side, or the entire government’s side if you will. Proposed amnesty will be potentially explosive. When an election draws near or if Move Forward (we don’t know if it will function under a new name in the next election) gain government power, the thorn will be in its flesh, too.
So, of all politically-important dates this month, watch June 18, the day he is scheduled to be formally charged, the closest.
June 7, 2024: It was a clever message to the Thai public. The biggest party’s declaration that it will not join hands with its former ally Pheu Thai is an apparent conclusion that it’s better to have a hen tomorrow than an egg today.
Pheu Thai would be stunned, but the message was actually meant for the voting populace. Pheu Thai with the conservatives is a freak, and Pheu Thai with the conservatives plus Thaksin Shinawatra and potentially his sister Yingluck is much more than a freak, and definitely a lot more than Move Forward can chew.
So, it’s absolutely wise for Move Forward to steer clear of all that and wait for the next election, which it will very likely win again.
Pheu Thai is in a more difficult situation now. An early House dissolution might hand government power to Move Forward on a plate. Trying to hang on could see others have more bargaining power while the party could shed its own.
June 6, 2024: Although there is no Constitutional Court injunction, the Move Forward Party’s leader is worried about potential, indefinite delay in the formation of a new “elected” Senate following the judges’ acceptance of petitions against the electoral process.
Chaithawat Tulathon said he was afraid that an endless stream of problems, complaints, debate, periods of vacuum could postpone the election, formal setting up and functioning of the new Senate again and again.
Already dubbed one of the world’s most complicated elections (or selections), the petitions accepted by the court might open the floodgates for similar complaints.
According to Chaithawat, it is not clear in the Constitution exactly when the Election Commission has to formally bestow the winners, unlike the House of Representatives election.
“There can be interruptions preventing the EC from announcing the winners, and there is a possibility that the current Senate will carry on with its acting status, something I believe a lot of people will not want to see,” he said.
June 5, 2024: How much the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration spent on exercise equipment may get scrutinised by the biggest political party.
Move Forward MP Suphanat Minchaiyanunt posted in his Facebook that costs of gym buys particularly ones concerning treadmills have “scarily” ballooned under Chadchart Sittipunt compared with the time when the BMA was under Aswin Kwanmuang.
It’s not that Aswin’s BMA was buying things at cheap prices, but it appears that Chadchart’s BMA was spending more suspiciously, he suggested.
Between 2019 and this year, the BMA has spent about Bt110 million on gym equipment, and Bt25 million of that was Aswin’s BMA’s spending, although the former governor stayed in the post longer, according to Suphanat’s information.
Cost estimates for treadmills seem to have jumped remarkably under Chadchart’s BMA. At the moment, some have been set at several hundreds of thousands of baht more than previously per each unit, Bangkok MP Suphanat wrote.
It seems that purchases have been made based on the curious appraisals. Suphanat said the BMA has not replied to inquiries which he initiated and were sent through the House committee monitoring budget spending.
There are tables of pricing and purchase information in his hands and several figures were indeed eye-popping. The BMA, he concluded, must be prepared for visits by top-level inspectors.
June 4, 2024: One political rule is “NEVER EVER weaponise” (or never court the perception of weaponising) the justice system against political enemies unless you are 100 % sure. Whatever the case with Donald Trump is (justice served or conspiracy attempted), the Democrats are seeing his court conviction backfiring badly against them.
In the mid of a Republican “uproar” after Trump was convicted of felony charges last week, we could almost hear champagne corks popping within the same camp at the same time. Reportedly leading in recent popularity polls with the presidential election only months away, all Trump needed in order to hammer the final nail into Joe Biden’s coffin was a general belief that he (Trump) was being persecuted.
Valuable lessons are all over the globe with great examples being here in Thailand. Mind you, Washington was even accused of throwing its weight behind some “victims” in certain countries. (Which makes some conspiracy lovers scratch their heads because they thought the US government should have known better.)
It looks like such lessons are just starting to be learned in the US anyway. Trump’s campaign reportedly raised a whopping $34.8 million in small dollar donations after the conviction. The campaign said the Thursday haul was “the biggest day ever recorded” for Trump’s small-dollar fundraising operation on the WinRed platform, nearly doubling the previous high. The WinRed website, according to the USA Today, crashed briefly due to an overwhelming traffic.
More money is on the way. In the hours following the verdict last week, a number of wealthy billionaires posted messages of support for Trump, BBC reported. Among them was Silicon Valley investor David Sacks, who tweeted America was becoming a Banana Republic unless voters change that in November.
Sacks and fellow investors were said to be planning to host a fundraiser for Trump in San Francisco, with attendees reportedly expected to be asked to contribute as much as $300,000.
Another potential donor, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, is expected to make an announcement on X in the coming days about supporting Trump. Although he had criticised the former president, the court verdict changed everything.
Israeli-American casino billionaire Miriam Adelson was reportedly poised to announce a multi-million dollar boost to Trump’s campaign this week, BBC said. (Or she could have done that already.)
US media reports speculated that while it was unclear how much she was planning to spend, the amount was expected to make jaws drop, amounting to tens of millions of dollars.
Here’s one TV opinion which is becoming viral: All US presidents more or less are guilty of big or unspeakable crimes, allegedly being responsible for secret tortures, deaths or destruction, mostly overseas, yet none has been convicted of extreme, malicious offences, so you have to be naïve if you treat allegations hurled against Trump seriously.
YouTube comments, some of which are claimed to belong to American Democratic voters, said after the verdict that they were swinging towards Trump now. Several Hollywood actors have come out against Biden, too.
June 3, 2024: It does not matter that a legislative amnesty campaign led to the downfall of a government led by the current ruling party about a decade ago, because valuable lessons are hardly learned in politics.
It looks like the Pheu Thai Party will try another crusade for a general amnesty, purportedly for everyone with unorthodox ideological belief for the sake of “national reconciliation”. Like in the previous campaign that led to massive street protests in Bangkok, some violence, closures of key locations and eventually a coup, the name of Thaksin Shinawatra will loom large.
The new push could be made through an ad hoc House committee studying reconciliatory amnesty legislation which Pheu Thai chairs. A committee member, Cherdchai Tantisirin, also a Pheu Thai MP, has confirmed that the panel believed a law was needed to bring Thailand out of a vicious circle of ideological fights.
Such a legislative draft could be sponsored by either the entire government or the Pheu Thai Party exclusively, he said. The ad hoc House committee will meet this week and final recommendations will be sent to the House of Representatives.
Cherdchai insisted Pheu Thai would be doing it for everyone including young political protesters facing charges, but he, when asked, admitted that there was concern the move would be perceived as an attempt to help Thaksin.
Cherdchai mentioned Article 112 a lot, although Pheu Thai’s apparent stance earlier seemed to be that this sensitive matter shall not be touched. He suggested that an Article 112-related amnesty campaign should take place at an “auspicious” moment so advocates or critics will not make noises that could allow emotions to reign over reasons.
“We will have to discuss in detail how the sensitive law can be written,” he said. “For example, should we put a firm condition that offences shall never be repeated after an amnesty? Or shall we say straight away that Article 112 cases that are pending are covered? Or should a committee be set up to screen individual cases?”
Apparently, Pheu Thai is expecting help from Move Forward, which, like the ruling party, has some great lessons in front of it.
June 2, 2024: While Bangkokians are generally “happy” with him, the city governor is unlikely to be completely happy with what they think.
If the latest NIDA poll surveying some 2,000 residents of the Thai capital is any indication, that is.
The devil is in the details. Anyone can be totally satisfied with the NIDA findings, but not a man who scored the biggest Bangkok gubernatorial election landslide in history.
In other words, if you edged other runners to the finish line on the election day, 40.75% of people surveyed saying they would vote for you next time, against 21.35% saying “No”, should make you proud. But if you got close to 1.4 million votes and your closest rival won just above 254,000 votes, 40% against 21% gives you a whole new perspective.
There are other uneasy signs as well. For example, more than 37% thought the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration was “apparently good” in tackling city traffic, against 34.4% who thought it’s “rather bad” and 17.6% who said it was “absolutely bad”.
On the surface, the “apparently good” is top, but if we combined “rather bad” with “absolutely bad”, it would be more than 50%.
Figures like these were all over the survey. Almost 31% thought the corruption problem was handled well at the BMA, against 27.3% who said it did not seem to be handled well and 18.3% who gave it an absolute thumb down. Again, 31% was top, but it would not be if 27.3 was combined with 18.3.
An exact 36% thought development of youth and solving their problems under Chadchart Sittipunt was rather good. More than 28% said it was not so good and 12.4% said it was not good at all. Obviously, 36% came first, on condition that 28% and 12.4% stayed away from each other.
It’s more or less the same on handling of the homeless and tackling of the flood problems.
Chadchart scored well on mass transport and organisation/management of Bangkok communities with the percentages of people who were “very” satisfied and “rather” satisfied clearly outnumbering detractors.
For example, more than 41% were fairly pleased with mass transport and over 13% were very happy. More than 29% did not quite like it, while almost 9% did not like it at all.
June 1, 2024: Will convicted Donald Trump become vindictive? It does not really matter much. What does is that many Americans think he will, and many of them think he even should, while his enemies will try a lot harder to pre-empt a scenario they fear.
The Trump-is-persecuted sentiment is also getting more prevalent among the Republicans, both in the Congress and on the street. In a country where there are just two political parties fighting for power, and where national divide is serious and expanding, this can be the worst environment possible.
The following independent voter was quoted by the BBC: I’m not a big Trump fan and I’m not a lawyer, but – based on what I was reading – this seemed like a very clumsy case. I feel like the jury was led to a foregone conclusion. And I do think this judge had a bias. What stood out to me was how they really hemmed in Donald Trump, keeping him under wraps with gag orders.
There are those who used to be pro-Trump but have been swayed by the court ruling as well. This group, however, is believed to be a lot smaller than the obvious-conspiracy-against-Trump population who, regardless of what the court says and how hard the evidence is, will vent anger on prospective Democratic presidential candidate and sitting President Joe Biden in November.
Pro-Trump clips are all over YouTube, attracting massive views. They have been there for quite some time but the court ruling has boosted viewing even further. It’s obvious that many Trump American supporters have been galvanised, saying they couldn’t wait for the voting day.
The deeply-polarised US media are upping the ante, apparently throwing more gasoline into the fire, with some openly discussing “revenge”. Even an article in a pro-Biden network says the court “victory” is coming at a very big cost.
It is very much the same when court verdicts dealt blows to Thaksin Shinawatra or Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. It mattered little whether wrongdoings actually had taken place or not. What caused a vicious loop is what their supporters and haters believed, and how far they could go to enforce their thinking.
In fact, it is pretty much the same as politics anywhere else. Unless, of course, it remains America as we know it in the next few months and after the election.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
