July 31, 2023: If Thaksin Shinawatra returns to Thailand on August 10 as announced by his daughter Paetongtarn, he will be able to laugh in the faces of those who believed he wouldn’t dare.

In fact, the “He wouldn’t dare” camp is growing because current Thai politics is far from stabilised. Thaksin, this school of thought insists, is anything but a risk-taker. In other words he wouldn’t go all-in at a poker game unless he holds a full-house,, or four of a kind, or straight flush.

The prediction by Chuwit Kamolvisit and Jatuporn Prompan that Thaksin would fold because a seemingly-good hand has turned bad is convincing to a lot more more people, who believe that the discomfort in state custody, no matter how brief and no matter how it would be miminised thanks to his status, is a main discouraging factor.

His political opponents are ensuring that their mind game is getting across. “Can you sleep without an air-conditioner?” “Don’t worry, your children and grandchildren can visit you.” “Aren’t you smelling a major Pheu Thai disaster?” “Move Forward is sharpening its knife for sure.”

These taunts followed the “landslide” that wouldn’t come and the increasingly-clear evidence that Pheu Thai taking over from Move Forward as the government-forming core is a lot harder than initially thought. Most of all, the taunts were based on the general perception about the man himself, the belief that Thaksin as they know wouldn’t risk it.

Who will have the last laugh?

July 30, 2023: The “Will he, won’t he?” debate is intensifying as the 10-day countdown to August 10 gets ever nearer, with former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan insisting it would never happen.

The “deal” has collapsed, said one of the most famous persons who renegaded from Thaksin Shinawatra. By that, Thaksin is not getting the guarantee he’s seeking regarding his “condition” that he would never be put in jail once he returns to Thailand.

“I’m not afraid of a tour bus if I’m wrong and he lands at Don Muang on that day, but reliable news has come to me indicating that it’s over now (Thaksin is not having what he wants),” he said. “There’s no way (to revive it).

Jatunporn is one of the most outspoken critics of the “crossover” scenario that would leave Move Forward out cold. Pheu Thai will be in danger of extinction and Thailand will be in danger of a bloody turmoil if Thaksin’s camp switched sides, he has predicted.

July 29, 2023: Will he or won’t he? Chuwit Kamolvisit says he won’t but Paetongtarn Shinawatra says he will.

Until Thaksin Shinawatra lands in Thailand and possibly kisses the ground, Chuwit can’t be ruled out. The timing of the planned return is so sensitive that a lot of people think Paetongtarn Shinawatra should keep her “delusional” description of Chuwit for herself when discussing Thaksin.

Chuwit’s Facebook post was short but unambiguous. “The game has turned on its head. Thaksin is taking a step back, cancelling his plan to return to Thailand. The situation has changed” went viral, and newscaster Sorrayuth Suthassanachinda shared it.

On Sorrayuth’s page, Paetongtarn popped up with just one word: “Delusional”.

To be fair, if Chuwit is not thinking straight, he is not alone in the political landscape nowadays.

July 28, 2023: Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn was apparently belying himself when he said his party still trusted its biggest ally.

Move Forward’s political star said he didn’t believe in rumours that Pheu Thai could be switching sides but he added that anyone doing so would be cursed.

Decide for yourself whether Wiroj still trusted Pheu Thai. Here’s his message in full:

“Let me tell you right here that no rumour worries me. Once we have decided to work as a team, I am absolutely trusting and unwavering. Even if I’m betrayed at the end or called a fool at the end, I will still keep my dignity and honesty. I will go anywhere with my head up high.

“So don’t ask me what if this happens or what if that happens. I trust the eight-party alliance without the slightest shed of doubt. I always respect and trust my teammates and here’s my encouragement to all of them.

“Should the mission fails in the end because of some betrayal, that will be better than failing because of allies mistrusting one another.

“If the mission fails because of betrayal, the betrayers will only be damned and the honest ones will always be pulled up so they can fight valiantly on.”

July 27, 2023: The peculiar relationship between the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties,  apparently bound by ideology but seemingly kept at arm’s length by clashing political interests, is being tested to the extreme at the moment.

The planned return to Thailand of Thaksin Shinawatra will maximise the testing, which began during the election campaign period, intensified when the “landslide dream” was shattered, and became even more challenging when Pita Limjaroenrat had to bow out of the prime ministerial race, which made Pheu Thai the new government-forming core.

According to Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn, he is expected to return to Thailand on August 10. Around that period, Pheu Thai may have just formed a government with or without Move Forward in it, or may be in the process of deciding what to do with Move Forward. The eventual outcome will unavoidably be linked to the man’s homecoming.

There have been more adding to the intrigue. Thaksin had implied that Pheu Thai was negatively affected by a smear online campaign, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said Thaksin could manoeuvre to seek royal clemency immediately, and a newspaper article, saying something that many may agree, suggested that the frenemies would drift further apart and may even become full-scale rivals.

July 26, 2023: Pita Limjaroenrat may consider himself lucky in this regard, because if his prime ministerial nomination had won the parliamentary approval, he would have to deal with a big bombshell early.

Now, Thaksin Shinwatra’s return to Thailand on August 10 as announced by his daughter Paetongtarn can be somebody else’s problem. But that Pita can sit on the fence does not mean the bomb will not explode. In fact, the planned homecoming can be on par with the troublesome selection of the new prime minister in terms of explosiveness.

Pheu Thai is taking a shot at the premiership after Pita has apparently failed (He could still be hopeful but not that much), so Thaksin’s return can either boost it or wreck it. There will be demonstrations to welcome him and there will be fiery protests to call for his imprisonment.

Take your pick as to who should be prime minister calling the shots on what to do with Thaksin. Paetongtarn Shinawatra? Srettha Thavisin? Pita Limjaroenrat? Prawit Wongsuwan? Anutin Charnvirakul?

Well, as of today, Prayut Chan-o-cha remains prime minister, by the way.

Meanwhile, the last we heard about Yingluck Shinawatra was that she wished her big brother Thaksin a very happy birthday. In the online post, she said her exile would have been unbearable without him.

July 25, 2023: The Constitutional Court, always criticised for issuing rulings that allegedly favoured one side in the political divide, is in for another damn-if-you-do-damn-if-you-don’t moment.

Some of Pita Limjaroenrat’s fans are pinning their hopes on the court now (although not that much), as a question has been raised as to whether a parliamentary vote declaring that his nomination as prime minister could not be repeated was constitutional or not. The Constitutional Court, which has saved Thaksin Shinawatra regarding the “servants’ share” scandal, dethroned a predecessor of his (late Samak Sundaravej), dissolved parties associated with him, sidelined someone powerful on “the other side” (late Sanan Kachornprasart), disqualified Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, stated that Prayut Chan-o-cha could be in office until 2025, has been asked to rule on the Pita issue.

Last week, Parliament, through a vote, prevented his nomination from being resubmitted, as the combined majority of the House of Representatives and the Senate considered the original nomination a “motion” which could only be tabled once in the same parliamentary semester.

The argument that Pita’s nomination is not a normal motion, but a sacred duty of post-election Parliament to name the country’s leader is fair enough, deserving the court’s consideration, which is forcing postponement of the next parliamentary meeting to select the prime minister. Yet involving the court brings Thailand a major irony.

Such an irony concerns one major question. If the court’s rulings were always criticised before, why should some of Pita’s fans, many of them non-believers in the court’s relevance, be excited now?  In other words, in the eyes of this side of the political divide, is the court last resort or something that shall never exist?

July 24, 2023: Politics is the art of addressing unwanted questions to soften their blows or make it look like answers have been provided. Here’s how Pheu Thai leader Cholanan Srikaew does it:

On the arguably most important question, “How are you going to form a government since everyone you met outside the alliance does not want Move Forward?”, he implied that it was not his job to tell Move Forward what to do.

“Our duty is to convey the information we have received, not judge it,”said Cholanan. “The eight parties will consider the information and find a solution. As of now I cannot say what will be the way out. What we think does not matter. What matters is the eight parties’ decision.”

On the proposal to seek postponement of the vote to select the prime minister until the Senate’s special powers expire, the unspoken answer was “Get real”. If someone seeks a delay of, say, 10 more months, whoever is in charge of the caretaker duty will roll on the floor laughing.

“We need to think of the outcome, of whether we will get what we want,” he said. “Parliament is a place where the majority vote prevails. If the majority does not want what we want, we will not get what we want, and we may even end up supporting what we don’t want.”

He also suggested that “an accident” can happen during a substantial delay.

What Pheu Thai was doing, he insisted, was motivated by the need to match the current schedule that requires the next round of voting near the end of this month.

A decision has to be made by Pheu Thai sooner or later, so how are you going to explain that decision to the public? He replied that the decision has not been made yet so the party doesn’t know what to explain.

“We simply have to wait because no decision has not occurred yet,” he said.

On the possibility of a third core emerging, he said he didn’t know, but added that a solution that does not include Pheu Thai and/or Move Forward in the government equation was tantamount to handing power to the minority. On a follow-up question of whether he wants it to end with Pheu Thai, he said “We will try.”

July 23, 2023: Pheu Thai doing the rounds is a sore sight when Move Forward is concerned, but the Thai saying “Hold your urge for something sour so that you will eat something sweet later” is there for good reason.

And the biggest party has many reasons not to be too downbeat if it ends up in the opposition bloc.

Reason Number 1: It will face no anti-incumbent sentiment in the next election (In other words it’s easier to win an election as an opposition). Reason Number 2: Governments hate street protests; opposition loves them. Reason Number 3: Somehow and somewhere, there will be state policies to attack. That is 100 % guaranteed.

Reason Number 4: A Pheu Thai government coalition without Move Forward in it will not last. Reason Number 5: After the next election, the Senate’s special powers will have been gone. Reason Number 6: Pheu Thai will likely face wrath of the voters which can only be good for Move Forward.

Reason Number 7: Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit’s political demise allowed Pita Limjaroenrat to rise, so it’s not unreasonable to expect that the trend will continue. Reason Number 8: Move Forward’s controversial stand on Article 112 is easier to hold as an opposition. Reason Number 9: Prayut Chan-o-cha appears for the first time to enjoy life. He is looking fresh and trouble-free, which can only tell us what Thai premiership can do to people.

Reason Number 10: Prawit Wongsuwan is even far less popular than Prayut, so a government with him in it, along with Pheu Thai’s image issue, certainly will struggle to score politically. Reason Number 11: While Move Forward and its supporters will get older, they will still be relatively “younger”going into the next election. Reason Number 12: Judging from all of the above and more, it’s far from over.

July 22, 2023: Take away the perceived “conspiracy” of the other side, along with the Article 112 uproar, the rest of the skepticism may be closer to home than Pita Limjaroenrat could possibly like.

In an article in The Manager online, the writer asked why the iTV share controversy, which contributed partly to his doom, was allowed to brew, considering what electorally disqualified Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit before him.

The iTV shares are an apparently-insignificant sum. That can be used in a pro-Pita argument, but it also begged the question why Move Forward lawyers were so naïve to assume that what happened to Thanathorn, who also allegedly owned “insignificant” shares in a business that no longer concerned media operations, would not happen to Pita as well. Considering that all assets of Move Forward election candidates must go through the scrutiny by the party’s legal apparatus, why did the iTV shares escape everything and make it way to the eagle eyes of Pita’s political enemies?

July 21, 2023: Pheu Thai wants to shake off Move Forward, apparently, but the second biggest party does not know how. Don’t you dare, Move Forward says bitterly, as if it loves Pheu Thai to death. “The other side”, meanwhile, does not like Pheu Thai, but it abhors Move Forward a lot more. Pheu Thai also does not trust the other side, but it also feels extremely uncomfortable with Move Forward. And talking about trust, Move Forward has little of it for its biggest “ally” (After all, the new Parliament president, who is close to Pheu Thai, could have just arbitrated the “motion” issue instead of calling a vote that everyone knew the result beforehand.).

Hence the political deadlock. In the end, it doesn’t matter who marries whom. The honeymoon will be short and stormy.

Political developments have revolved around the hate triangle. Everyone is asking himself “What should I do?”, as every option will lead to a dead-end. More twists and turns are to be expected. There will be protests along the way.

As for today, Pheu Thai has declared Thailand should have a prime minister by July 27, but with the party still having to stick with Move Forward, many doubt that. Move Forward is reportedly planning to nominate a Pheu Thai candidate itself in what would be a nice touch that could make Pheu Thai look like a great betrayer if the two drift apart afterwards. Anutin Charnvirakul, meanwhile, insisted his party wouldn’t join any coalition that has Move Forward in it.

July 20, 2023: Move Forward must be hoping that Sereepisuth Temeeyaves was only expressing a personal opinion, not one popular among its allies.

In a dramatic interview, the Thai Liberal Party leader who had fought ideologically alongside the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties over the past few years suggested that Move Forward should settle in the opposition bloc, and that Pita Limjaroenrat was politically doomed because of young, recklessly aggressive fans.

His Facebook page was bombarded by Pita’s supporters afterwards, but he had said he was expecting it, and that nothing could prevent him from speaking his mind.

The Thai Liberal Party, like Pheu Thai, paid a heavy price for Move Forward’s unexpected election sweep. Was Sereepisuth just being bitter? Maybe, but amid rumours and speculation about political realignment, Move Forward must be praying that bitterness was the only reason.

July 19, 2023: If Pheu Thai plans to ditch Move Forward, the former has to do it very softly and, most importantly, not now. This means political tension will remain extremely high in the foreseeable future.

Pita Limjaroenrat’s suspension ordered by the Constitutional Court and bitterly-divided Parliament’s refusal to accept his re-nomination as prime minister have swung the sympathy pendulum back in Move Forward’s favour. This is after days of doubts and even fears in some quarters regarding the election winner’s ideological agenda.

A Pheu Thai nominee could have the same fate as Pita’s if Move Forward remains in the alliance. But the second biggest party cannot abandon Move Forward outright, which means the next voting will most likely become inconclusive again.

As a “minority government” looks the craziest idea at the moment, the much-taunted “national government” proposal can appear increasingly appealing, especially if someone still wants to return home peacefully from a long, long exile.

Fiery street protests can change everything, though.

July 18, 2023: The people who have read that post by the Bangkok governor’s son must have comfortably outnumbered those who have read the young man’s apology, without which far fewer people must have known about the hard-hitting online rant.

In other words, the apology drew more people to the original post, and that could not be good for Move Forward going into the second round of parliamentary voting to select the new prime minister.

This is just part of a curious big picture that followed last week’s parliamentary rejection of Pita Limjaroenrat’s nomination. His first-round failure sparked a social media uproar and some street protests, but he would have liked a more ferocious reaction. In addition, the social media content that was against him was probably too much for his comfort, too quick for his comfort, and too accessible for his comfort.

It was probably a conspiracy. But by who? The backpedaling status quo certainly cannot become a well-versed social media manipulator overnight. If they were responsible, they couldn’t do it alone for sure.

July 17, 2023: The gravitational pull keeping the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties together is holding on for dear life, amid the temptations seemingly eating away at the latter’s public resolve.

“We haven’t talked about it,” Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate Srettha Thavisin said when asked whether he was ready to lead the new government if Move Forward was not in it. (He could have simply said “No”, which Pita Limjaroenrat would have liked better.) In the same interview, when asked if he was ready, but this time without Move Forward’s name being mentioned, Srettha said: “I wouldn’t be one of our party’s nominees if I’m not.”

Pheu Thai on the surface has to look loyal to Move Forward. But hints that things are not as they seem have been everywhere _ from gossiping party insiders, from identifiable leading party personalities questioning the wisdom of pushing for sensitive or divisive legal or constitutional changes, and from senatorial sources claiming that even if the alliance decides to support a Pheu Thai nominee, he or she will face the same fate as Pita Limjaroenrat as long as Move Forward remains in the group.

And there’s the issue of Thaksin Shinawatra. Foreign analysts have joined several of their Thai counterparts in saying that Pita’s loss is Thaksin’s gain. They believe in the theory that it is easier for Thaksin to come home while Thailand is under a “reconciliatory” coalition than under a Prime Minister Pita, whose needs to protect his image could clash badly with lenient treatment of the man in Dubai.

This marriage of convenience scenario, though, may not necessarily feature a Pheu Thai prime minister, who could trigger all kinds of criticism and fiery street protests when Thaksin returns. This is where the name of Prawit Wongsuwan comes in, along with suggestions that Pheu Thai’s nominees could wait.

July 16, 2023: Parliament will spend hours debating the question on Wednesday. MPs and senators may end up voting on whether Pita Limjaroenrat can be re-nominated as prime minister.

The outcome of such a vote, according to the Pheu Thai Party itself, can realistically be a huge setback for him.

Another scenario, which could favour the Move Forward leader, is that the new Parliament president, known to be close to Pheu Thai, will arbitrate.

Parliamentary rules prohibit resubmitting a motion in the same parliamentary term unless the context of the related issue is changed substantially. The anti-Pita camp says his nomination was proposed for voting last week, with the possibility of more choices, therefore it was a “motion”. Wednesday requires another motion, in other words another name.

The pro-Pita side says Parliament was performing its “duty” of selecting a new prime minister, so it was not a simple motion. It’s an obligation that needs to be completed, so to speak.

Even Pheu Thai’s top strategist Phumtham Wechayachai was not quite certain what would happen. “One thing is certain. There will be an intensive debate about it in Parliament on July 19,” he said. “There are two possible conclusions. Either the Parliament president may intervene or someone would propose that MPs and senators vote to settle the argument, in which case the majority will, I believe, say no and Khun Pita can’t be re-nominated.”

Phumtham beat around the bush regarding what Pheu Thai would do in case Pita, Move Forward’s only nominee for prime minister, was no longer qualified.

Interpret what the deputy Pheu Thai leader said as you wish: “If it’s clear that it’s impossible for Khun Pita, I mean if he is given another chance but the voting result is not different from the first time or not significantly more or less, maybe we should think about changes. I don’t think (the Pita vote) will be called again and again and again until this Parliament completes its term and the Senate is out. Our country needs clarity and urgently needs a government to solve people’s problems. It has to be over (as soon as possible).”

July 15, 2023: If you have not watched Chada Chaised video clips you are suffering from severe social media deficiency. As of today, haters and admirers are still sharing what the Bhumjaithai MP said in Parliament on Thursday.

Critics, and there are millions of them, see a dictatorship-leaning man with an extremely-violent impulse. Fans, who must also number millions, love the brave and hard-hitting display of allegiance to the orthodox political system.

Listen to his speech in full before taking your stand, though. Several clips have been edited to show mere ear-catching highlights, not the whole context.

July 14, 2023: Comments here and abroad are divided into pro- and anti-Pita Limjaroenrat camps, but they are in unison over why he failed at the first parliamentary hurdle on Thursday.

Political activists and analysts also agree on another thing: Whether you are a fan, or critic, or detractor, of the Pheu Thai Party, watch it closely over the next few days.

In online comments, Somsak Jeamteerasakul and Chuwit Kamolvisit both pointed out that Move Forward would have to learn how to campaign for sensitive issues. The former, a staunch leftist activist in exile, said Move Forward could not match Pheu Thai in terms of political experiences. The latter noted a prevalent public perception that there are urgent bread-and-butter matters worth highlighting in the prelude to the parliamentary vote but they gave way to Article 112.

Certain newscasters, interviewing academics and analysts, said there was suspicion now that some of the millions who voted for Move Forward on May 14 preferred its urgent economic and bureaucratic reform policies and were either unaware of the Article 112 agenda or did not think the party would prioritise it as much.

Nuttaa “Bow” Mahattana, a human right campaigner, said in an online post that Pita’s parliamentary failure would reinvigorate Pheu Thai.

July 13, 2023: Although it remains highly uncertain how, where, when _ and if _ Thaksin Shinawatra would return to Thailand, the metropolitan police conducted a meeting on Wednesday that dealt with transport and security curiously involving routes linking airports, the Supreme Court headquarters and custody facilities.

A leaked document, reported Thai Post, detailed the meeting, but no specific name was mentioned in the summary seen by journalists, who immediately linked it to Thaksin.

The summary said the meeting took place on Wednesday at 10 am at the metropolitan police headquarters. Participants, it said, “analysed” situations and (possible) dangers in the event that a “convict who received a jail sentence enters Thailand through the Don Muang or Suvarnabhumi airports.”

The participants considered potential transport and security arrangements, the document said.

Apart from the increasing excitement about Parliament’s selection of the new prime minister, Bangkok police obviously are having another excitement of their own.

July 12, 2023: The strongest indication that Thaksin Shinawatra may delay his much-anticipated plan to end his exile this month has come from his daughter Paetongtarn.

“He doesn’t want to be part of the problem,” said the young Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party’s candidate for prime minister. “He thinks it’s best for his return to solve problems, not the other way around. He doesn’t want to cause chaos. Personally, I think he will definitely return, but, if not in July like he used to say, (it’s possible that) there could be a slight delay.”

She added that Thaksin would want to see how the vote to select the prime minister ends.

All of what she said is strange. To begin with, all the schedules she was talking about had long been more or less a common knowledge, and so had the possibility of a “chaos”. Thaksin of all the people should have foreseen every potential “problem” when he announced his intention to come back this month to raise his grandchildren.

July 11, 2023: One side is a “credible” media outlet while the other side is a lot less so. Ones would presume the former would seek to expose the latter, not the other way around.

It would still be the case of the BBC coming across as a victim of The Sun’s “imprudent” or agenda-filled reporting. The world-renowned media outlet could turn the tables on the tabloid with an impending press conference by its director-general Tim Davie which should happen any minute now. But that might just increase the spectacular.

To cut a long story short, The Sun has accused an unnamed BBC presenter of paying a teen for sexually-explicit photos. The male presenter has been suspended, but, just as it seemed the BBC was totally on the back foot, the youngster’s lawyer has come out to describe The Sun’s story as “rubbish”.

The Sun apparently has the youngster’s family on its side, but not the youngster’s lawyer, though. The lawyer part is where things get weird. The youngster was described by The Sun as a drug addict who used the money from the BBC presenter to sponsor the addiction, which was said to be getting worse and worse.

Is it normal for a youngster with an allegedly serious drug habit to have a lawyer? The question would be more glaring if the family, whose identity is a tightly-guarded secret at the moment, is poor. Why did the lawyer represent just the youngster and not the family, and why did they lawyer go against the family? Is the lawyer credible? Does BBC have something else besides the lawyer’s claims?

The Sun has gone all-in regarding its story, but the tabloid has had eggs in its faces a few times before.

July 10, 2023: Considering comments from people who matter, the first parliamentary vote to select the new prime minister on Thursday is unlikely to produce a concrete result, requiring a break of possibly 6-7 days.

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat reportedly needs more than 60 senatorial votes to get the parliamentary majority of 376. He might get that support right away on Thursday, but not many people believe so.

In the event that he fails to overcome the last hurdle on Thursday, the loading of a free-for-all catastrophe game will have been completed when MPs and senators leave the building. Pita will have a few more days to lobby for more backing before Parliament returns next week. After that, if he fails again, he will most likely get yet another chance. The Constitution does not put a ceiling on how many times Parliament can vote to pick the prime minister.

Repeated voting will cause a rival nominee to emerge, though. (This Thursday will most likely feature Pita’s name alone to honour his party’s election win, but it would not be the case if the third round of voting becomes necessary.) This is where we get a free-for-all, unpredictable situation. Pheu Thai will not stay quiet, and neither will the Palang Pracharath Party. The media and social media will be on fire.

Pita’s diehard supporters will not stay quiet either.

Coming to think of it, even if Pita sails through this Thursday, the game loading would still continue, albeit at a slower pace. There are issues that could make the peaceful honeymoon considerably short.

July 9, 2023: The majority of people surveyed were apparently not suspicious about the government-forming partnership between the two biggest parties, but those questioning it were a minority that looked anything but small.

NIDA Poll covered 1,310 Thais in a three-day survey right after Wan Muhamad Noor Matha was selected the new House speaker. Almost 59% of them thought both Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties equally benefited from that. More than 23% considered it a Pheu Thai advantage, as opposed to 7.9% who believed the other way around.

On the entire eight-party Pita alliance’s chance of making the Move Forward leader the new prime minister, 26.1% were absolutely confident, 38.6% were fairly sure about that, 23.5% doubted it and 10.6% completely did not think it would be possible.

On how they feel about the alliance’s general unity and cooperation, 38.4% quite trusted it, 29.5% doubted it, 16.8% totally believed in it, and 14.4% shook their heads. In short, believers barely outnumbered doubters.

July 8, 2023: America’s “difficult” decision to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions marks a major escalation of a war that has already been very controversial and tipped by some to become far bigger.

The White House announced on Friday that the US president had approved the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine. CNN described that as “the latest instance where the US has provided Kyiv with weapons it initially resisted sending into the war.”

“It was a very difficult decision on my part,” Joe Biden said in an interview. “And by the way, I discussed this with our allies, I discussed this with our friends up on the Hill. The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition.”

The US government used to be opposed to arming Ukraine with cluster munitions, as those in Washington joined much of the world in considering them indiscriminate weapons that cause harm to civilians.

Antiwar.com pointed out that cluster bombs scatter small sub-munitions over large areas, making them especially hazardous to civilians who live in or near battle zones or who can find unexploded munitions years after they were dropped. “Because of their indiscriminate nature, cluster munitions have been banned by more than 100 nations. The US, Ukraine, and Russia are not parties to the treaty, known as the Convention on Cluster Munitions,” the website said. It added that the US-based Arms Control Association called America’s “difficult decision” an “escalatory and counterproductive” move.

If the gloves remain, they only just.

July 7, 2023: The saying that truth is like a dandelion, needing only the slightest wind for its seeds to break free, scatter, and grow in even the toughest conditions, sprouting up through cracks in concrete and brick walls, is probably too idealistic to be true.

In today’s world, truth needs the push and shove of digital business heavyweights or powerful politicians, who ironically will fight against one another to bring out their versions of what the public should believe.

There are platforms claiming to represent efforts to foster or shed light on truth, with Elon Musk’s Twitter and Threads, the newest kid in town brought to you by Mark Zuckerberg, among them. Aren’t they supposed to cooperate rather than fight?

July 6, 2023: When people say “Thailand needs to have a prime minister”, they are stating the obvious. When Wan Muhamad Noor Matha said it, that statement can, whether he intended it or not, evoke curiosity and may send chills down Move Forward’s spine.

That simple, matter-of-fact statement came with the new House speaker’s suggestion that parliamentary vote will be repeated until some nominee gets past the minimum 376-vote hurdle. This means that if a nominee looks certainly unable to match the requirement, Parliament will move to the next one.

“Thailand must have the prime minister, and Parliament is constitutionally tasked with the selection,” he said. He noted that the current alliance seeking to form a government had shown it had enough support for its choice of his first deputy, but he remarked that the prime ministerial selection requires more than the 312 votes given the person elected the first deputy House speaker.

Again, he was stating the obvious. Again, the comment might sound a bit curious.

July 5, 2023: As the parliamentary vote to select the new prime minister is just over a week away, it means the bombshell issue of Thaksin Shinawatra’s (potential) homecoming will fall into the lap of Thailand’s new leader.

This is assuming that Thaksin will not return unexpectedly in the next few days. Even in the extremely-unlikely event that he does, whatever decision made by outgoing Prayut Chan-o-cha will have to be reviewed, or overturned, or endorsed, by the new government. If Thaksin does not change his mind about coming home to mark his birthday anniversary (July 26) here, it will affect the new prime minister a lot more than Prayut.

Whoever wins the vote on July 13 _ Pita Limjaroenrat, or any of his Pheu Thai counterparts, or someone on “the other side” _ surely must hope that the man in Dubai will make a U-turn. Putting him in jail or keeping him out of it pending revival of his cases has the potential to be politically catastrophic either way.

July 4, 2023: The smooth and automatic parliamentary process of making Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, 79, the new House speaker is a strong sign that Pita Limjaroenrat’s path will be anything but smooth and automatic.

Pita ensured that the House speaker nomination process is trouble-free by nominating the Prachachat Party leader himself. This can only mean that the Move Forward-Pheu Thai showdown remained deadlocked as of July 3, the eve of the decisive day, requiring a face-saving “compromise” to sweep their conflicts under the carpet so that the government-forming agenda can get to the next step.

The deadlock looked worse for Move Forward than for Pheu Thai. The ageing veteran is known to be very close to Pheu Thai and his party is by no means a force to be reckoned with. Several quarters will perceive the development as the first evidence of Move Forward having to depend on Pheu Thai instead of the other way around. This will make the future look not so promising for Pita and his party, not least because there will be legislative issues in the future much more explosive than the simple matter of who should chair the House of Representatives.

July 3, 2023: Elon Musk has simply provided another proof to the world that capitalism is confusing, if not downright hypocritical.

When Twitter was born, it was hailed as a great way towards democratising the access to knowledge, wisdom and information, at that time an unspoken yet surefire privilege of the wealthy. A relatively-poor person, thanks to Twitter, could become inspired, innovative, knowledgeable and creative if he or she managed to get his or her account working.

Many of those accounts were “unverified”. Tough limits to how much owners of such accounts can read can change everything. Suddenly, a “tool of democracy” is blurring its own label. Suddenly, suspicion has become glaring again regarding financial motives in the wind of change battling the Twitter world.

Does Musk have the right? Yes, says capitalism. He’s a business owner to begin with. Is he doing the right thing? Democracy is not so sure. Of course, Twitter manipulation exists, but the fact that it requires an obscenely-rich person to own it and some more money elsewhere to abuse it _ and the likelihood that the two moneys can combine to become a monster _ flies in the face of the concept of “equality” , and it’s a big problem that cannot be fixed by simply restricting access to content alone.

July 2, 2023: Ukraine’s president has portrayed the Wagnerites as a miserable and demoralised group of mercenaries who had been getting squashed like flies in his country.

At least 21,000 Wagner mercenaries have been killed fighting in Ukraine, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, who added that another 80,000 fighters employed by the private military company had been wounded.

“Our troops killed 21,000 Wagnerites in eastern Ukraine alone,” Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv on Saturday. “These were enormous losses for the Wagner PMC,” said Zelensky, who CNN said characterized its fighters as a “motivated staff of the Russian army” and mostly convicts who “had nothing to lose.”

This makes the question why Wagner managed to do what its employees did in Russia over a week ago even more resounding. Not least when considering that mutiny charges had been simmering before the rebellious yet smooth ride toward Moscow. Such a ride by such a small and weakened rogue group against a superpower army had a snowball’s-chance-in-hell of succeeding.

Zelensky needs to boost morale of his soldiers and therefore anything he says has to be taken with a pinch of salt. But that does not change the perception that the Wagner rebellion is one of the fishiest, if not most insane, military acts in history.

Zelensky’s claims also begged the question why he has not won the war by now if Ukraine could crush a “motivated” pro-Russian force as massively and utterly as that.

July 1, 2023: Will Thaksin Shinawatra be back? Will Pita Limjaroenrat become the next prime minister? Are the two questions deeply related? If they are, is the House speakership tussle the game people who matter play? Does Thaksin remain conservatives’ great enemy or is the situation changing a bit because of Move Forward and the election earthquake and aftershocks? Is Pheu Thai wholeheartedly backing Pita as its leader Cholanan Srikaew tried to reassure the public hours ago?

What are senators thinking now, knowing that even if they decide to support somebody else as prime minister, his or her government may easily collapse in a matter of months, if not weeks? Will the senatorial decision lead to massive protests and will they become something worse?

Which is easier _ Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra coming back during a reluctant truce between Pheu Thai and the conservatives, or they return during a Move Forward-led reign in which Pheu Thai will play second fiddle yet remain considerably influential? Will Move Forward’s worst nightmare materialise (the party being isolated and ending up in the opposition)?

This month will answer most of the questions. And will raise more in the process.

 

 

Daily updates of domestic and international events by Tulsathit Taptim