The presence of two former Thai premiers — Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck — in Cambodia on August 5 was not only a personal visit to celebrate strongman Hun Sen’s birthday but also a clear message for the establishment of the new government in Bangkok, experts said.

Pictures of the cheerful celebration at Hun Sen’s residence in Takhmao, on the outskirts of Phnom Penh, were shared by Cambodia’s local media, Fresh News, pointing to the close ties between the Shinawatra clan and the Cambodian political family.

Sitting at a dining table, Thaksin was seen talking with Hun Sen’s eldest son, Hun Manet, who was appointed by King Norodom Sihamoni on August 7 as prime minister after the Cambodian People’s Party made a near-clean sweep of the July 23 election, winning 120 out of 125 seats in the House of Representatives. Hun Manet took over the reins of power from his father, Hun Sen, who had ruled the country since 1985.

Thaksin’s presence with the Hun Sen family made media headlines, as he was seen in Phnom Penh just a day after his announcement postponing his return to Thailand after a 15-year self-imposed exile. The delay seemed to be tied to the uncertain political situation in Thailand, as his Pheu Thai Party was struggling to form a new coalition and making all-out efforts to secure backing for its candidate for prime minister. Thaksin, however, gave medical reasons for the delay. Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn had announced on Thaksin’s birthday on July 26 that her father would return to Thailand on August 10.

Impact on bilateral ties

The close relationship between the two political families once cast a grim shadow over bilateral ties between the two countries when Hun Sen defied Bangkok and appointed Thaksin his economic advisor in 2009, while the Thai government under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was seeking his extradition in connection with corruption cases. Relations further worsened between the two governments as border tensions rose over the Preah Vihear temple after it was inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO.

The Cambodian government said that the attendance of Thaksin and Yingluck at Hun Sen’s 72nd birthday celebrations was purely a personal matter, which had nothing to do with the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

“Prime Minister Hun Sen has already explained to Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and other Thai senior officials,” spokesman Phay Siphan was quoted as saying by the Phnom Penh Post. “He sought their understanding about his friendship with Thaksin and Yingluck. They have declared themselves ‘god siblings’ already, and it has nothing to do with politics.”

A clear message?

However, a Thai expert viewed it differently. The former Thai prime minister, who was overthrown by a military coup in 2006, had demonstrated to the establishment elite in Bangkok that Thailand’s ties with Cambodia would never be a problem if his proxy — Pheu Thai Party — came to power, according to Ukrist Pathmanand, professor of Asian studies at Chulalongkorn University.

Thaksin’s presence with Hun Sen and Hun Manet was ample proof that the former prime minister retained his charisma and influence in the neighbouring country, he said.

“It was a clear message [to the Thai elite] that the Pheu Thai Party would be able to steer relations with Cambodia smoothly, a lot better than the progressive Move Forward Party, which Hun Sen obviously disliked, or even the government under Prayut, whose relationship with Hun Sen was nothing special,” Ukrist told Thai PBS World in an interview.

Outgoing Prime Minister Hun Sen had launched attacks on the Move Forward Party several times before the eight-party coalition tried but failed to install Pita Limjaroenrat as the Thai prime minister. Shortly after the May 14 election, the Cambodian strongman had spread misinformation that the Move Forward Party had a policy to kick out thousands of Cambodian workers from Thailand when it took power.

Hun Sen rocked diplomatic circles when he compared Pita’s failure to get enough votes from the senators to become the prime minister in the first round of voting on July 13 with the failure of Cambodia’s opposition, saying they wanted to exploit Thai democracy for their political gains. Hun Sen later clarified his statement, saying he was neither against Pita nor did he want to interfere in Thai domestic affairs.

Economic interests

Good diplomatic relations between Thailand and Cambodia could pave the way for the resumption of negotiations to jointly develop natural gas resources, estimated to be worth more than 1 trillion baht in the Gulf of Thailand. The talks have been inconclusive for more than a decade due to repeated political disruption in Thailand, according to sources in the industry.

Thailand and Cambodia signed a memorandum of understanding on the areas of their overlapping maritime claims to the continental shelf in June 2001 when Thaksin was the prime minister. Many rounds of negotiations since then made little progress and were further disrupted after the emergence of the yellow-shirt anti-Thaksin movement paved the way for the military coup in 2006. Another round of protests, this time against the Yingluck government, led to another coup, in 2014.

The energy dividend

Pichai Naripthaphan, who is vice chairman of the Pheu Thai Party’s Strategic Committee, said his party, if it managed to form a new government, aimed to hold negotiations with Cambodia on easing energy shortage.

The party was previously accused of having a conflict of interest when it made several attempts to work on the overlapping areas with Cambodia due to the Shinawatra family’s close connection with Hun Sen.

Pichai, who was the energy minister in the Yingluck government, said Prayut’s government, which took power after toppling Yingluck in the 2014 coup, was supposed to jump-start the talks but failed to convince Cambodia to return to the table.

“There is no time to wait. The Pheu Thai Party, if we can form a government, would surely resume the talks to jointly develop natural gas in the overlapping claims areas for the mutual benefit of the two countries,” he told local media.

By Thai PBS World’s Regional Desk