What former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said this week about her Pheu Thai Party is true, but her speech failed to mention some very important details.
It’s undisputed that despite party dissolutions and the toppling of its prime ministers through coups, Pheu Thai managed to not just survive but also maintain or reclaim political powers. The party did it with a massive and highly-loyal fan base and strong international support.
Now, the fan base may not be so massive and loyal, and the international backing may not be as strong. This is the result of one thing that Paetongtarn failed to talk about, the arrival of the new kid in town who has stolen the hearts that formerly had fixed on Pheu Thai.
Another thing she did not talk about is Cambodia. The border dispute and her family’s problems with Hun Sen did not only put her and her father’s popularity to test, but that of the entire Pheu Thai Party, too.
Two hundred House seats, Pheu Thai’s current target, is a big goal. Even when Pheu Thai was generally expected to continue the alliance with Move Forward (now the People’s Party), Paetongtarn’s party won just 141. Thailand and Cambodia were also good friends before the 2023 election as well, so there was no “leaked” conversation to worry about.
Many analysts are predicting that Pheu Thai will win fewer than 100 seats this time, partly because of Cambodia and partly because it dumped Move Forward for the conservatives after the 2023 general election.
Paetongtarn also did not state that when Pheu Thai is concerned, the electoral “market” has not changed from 2023 at all. It and the People’s Party will continue to fight for the same group of voters. And the “friendliness” that prevented it from becoming a red ocean then will go out the window now.
Conservative Bhumjaithai, on the other hand, will revel in the fact that Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation parties are no competition, with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul clearly more popular than Prawit Wongsuwan or Pirapan Salirathavibhaga. Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation are also fractured.
Bhumjaithai may be hoping Pheu Thai does sufficiently well in the next election, actually. That is because every seat Pheu Thai gains can be one fewer seat for the People’s Party. In other words, the redder the “left” ocean, the higher the chance for Bhumjaithai.
Anutin’s party will benefit from the surge of nationalism thanks to the border dispute with Cambodia. Bhumjaithai is clearly above both Pheu Thai and the People’s Party in this aspect, at least for now. As things stand, the party that won just over 70 seats in the last election can go beyond 100 this time.
Pheu Thai has about four months or less to come up with magnetic candidates to be the next prime minister. Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party, of course, have Anutin and Nutthaphong Ruengpanyawut respectively.
Pheu Thai always “sold” its prime ministerial candidates. There were times when Thaksin Shinawatra could field anyone and he or she would get elected. Yingluck Shinawatra was touted as Thailand’s first female leader. Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn herself drew enthusiasm.
The question is “Now who?” The only thing left to promote is the name Pheu Thai, which, however, has been dragged through the mud of 2023 “betrayal” and the leaked Paetongtarn-Hun Sen audio clip.
A decade or so ago, the 14th Floor controversy could have worked in Pheu Thai’s favour, triggering a groundswell of sympathy that is important in any election. In 2010, seizure of Thaksin’s assets sparked an uprising. Now, the man himself going to jail is less talked about than a celebrity’s sex scandal.
The 14th Floor issue and the leaked clip wiped away the Shinawatras physically. Politically, whether the names alone can still inspire a comeback is also a big question mark. “They have been persecuted” outcries were barely heard after Thaksin “went back” to jail and Paetongtarn lost the premiership.
Political sympathy works only when there is one clear-cut recipient of support. When there are two _ Pheu Thai and the People’s Party _ fighting a cutthroat war for that sympathy, votes can be split and benefit neither. Or so Bhumjaithai hopes.
There is another thing. The Democrats, Pheu Thai’s former rivals, have all but gone. Politically, they have left the stage earlier than Paetongtarn’s party in fact. Don’t underestimate the old wisdom that your enemy boosts your strength.
Paetongtarn talked about rejuvenation. Truth is, it’s easier to rejuvenate the Democrats, whose clear advantage is that they don’t rely on a fixed clan. People don’t call the Democrats a “Leekpai” party or a “Vejjajiva” party, but what is Pheu Thai without the Shinawatras?
Former prime minister and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn was all smiles this week when she talked about revival and structural overhaul in preparation for the upcoming election. She listed a few things that the party would do in order to stage a remarkable comeback.
None of the things she listed addresses the problems Pheu Thai will face in the next, all-important fight, though.
