Twenty years or so ago, Pheu Thai inviting the Democrats to be in the same government would warrant dynamite headlines and national fireworks. Today, nobody cares.
Key reasons why are obvious. The Democrat Party is nowhere near as big as before; Pheu Thai has been with more unthinkable partners; and, last but not least, such an invitation signals anything but an end to national divide.
Thai politics has become more twisted than it was two decades ago, in fact, and what was supposed to be a positively-historic picture of the “olive branch” meeting this week between senior Pheu Thai and Democrat members only underlined a snowballing absurdity.
It used to be so simple. The country’s political polarization was once straightforward _ with “Red” on one side and “Yellow” on the other _ but just before the 2019 general election, “Orange” emerged. It allied itself with the “Red”, while the “Yellow” or “Salim” became their common enemy.
That was when complexity started. Some of the “Orange” accused the “Red” of not being totally pure ideologically, because massive corruption was tolerated. Hardcore “Red” saw that as a direct attack on Thaksin Shinawatra.
Even so, the on-and-off tension was dismissed as a frenemy situation, because skirmishes were common in any large movement. Yet when the “Red” joined hands with the “Yellow” after the 2023 general election, which saw the “Orange” win the most seats, frenemy morphed into full-blown enmity.
When it comes to political cake, ideology has to wait. That’s how we have got a Yellow-backed Red prime minister. And when rebellion without an ideological cause like what’s happening in the Palang Pracharath Party is added, Orange and Yellow sitting side by side in the opposition bloc in Parliament is a real possibility.
Some have managed to look at the bright side, saying the “colours” are at least mixing. Good news. Pheu Thai is even called “neo conservative” in some corners. Bad news is that any improvement can be too slow for our liking and things can get a lot worse before they can get better.
To start with, who should Thais vote for in the next election? Conservative parties? What were they thinking in backing one Pheu Thai prime minister after another?
What about Pheu Thai? Betrayer!
The People’s Party then? A bunch of naive kids!
The Democrats it is. For crying out loud, they were in Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government, pretended to be ideologically firm after last year’s election only to flirt with Pheu Thai currently. Of course, the answer is no!
In terms of popularity, everyone’s but the People’s Party’s has declined. When surrounded by perceived turncoats, an extremist can stand out. But two dissolutions and restrictions imposed on key members must have weakened the party.
The “conservatives” are missing Prayut, who is not playing politics anymore. The “liberals” are not having Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Pita Limjaroenrat either. Chuan Leekpai is retiring and Abhisit Vejjajiva also seems to be drifting farther and farther away from politics.
Prawit Wongsuwan has lost a lot of respect with that little “patting”. Sudarat Keyuraphan and Korn Chatikavanij are just leading small camps and not assertive enough. Anutin Charnvirakul’s best chance _ which came in the immediate aftermath of Srettha Thavisin’s removal _ has apparently gone, and why did he giggle with the very people who destroyed his cannabis policy?
Only Thaksin remains in the spotlight. Bad news is barely just, due to impending legal troubles that can hit him with no place to hide. Worse news is he will likely do anything to deal with the impending legal troubles.
Thais don’t even know for certainty whether he is holding the conservatives hostage or whether it’s the other way round.
One thing to watch is foreign support for Pheu Thai. About two decades ago, it was overwhelming, with “human rights” groups, western embassies and many journalists treating crackdowns as political persecution. The emergence of the “Orange” has diluted that image somewhat.
With Pheu Thai in the yellow-backed government, attention has shifted to the People’s Party. Suspicion that Thaksin had cut a deal with the conservatives did not help his party.
Will the support _ albeit the “champion of democracy” image _ regrow? Thaksin and his party are still prone to “persecution”. If the party is dissolved and/or Paetongtarn Shinawatra is removed from the chief executive post, what will the former backers say?
Pheu Thai may get new-found sympathy. “Poor you. Look at what they have done to you again” Or the party can be shown contempt. “You had it coming.”
It will be as hard for the foreigners, although they don’t have to vote.
As for Thais, they are not getting back to where they started. The country is grappling with a brand-new problem while the old one is still glaring.
