Thailand’s rice output this year may drop by as much as 6%, to between 25.1 and 25.6 million tonnes, due to the impacts of the El Niño weather phenomenon, according to a forecast by the Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC).

KRC predicts that total rice production this year will be between 32.7 and 33.2 million tonnes, when combined with about 7.6 million tonnes from the second crop, which will be enough for domestic consumption and exports, which are expected to see an increase from last year.

It warns that the anticipated rice output may be much lower if the drought is prolonged and causes more damage to the crops.

KRC warned that the El Niño phenomenon this year, if it is further prolonged, will cause a substantial drop in water levels in numerous reservoirs, which will have an impact on both main and second-crop cultivation next year, as it urged agencies concerned to adjust their water management plans immediately, to ensure that there is sufficient water for cultivation and other purposes.

Meanwhile, the Royal Irrigation Department is urging farmers in the Chao Phraya river basin to suspend second crop cultivation.

KRC said, however that, due to the attractive export price and global demand for Thai rice, many farmers still want to plant their second crop, despite the risk of a water shortage.

According to the department, about 19,600,000m3 of water, including about 7,000,000m3 for the Chao Phraya river basin alone, have been discharged into about 1.59 million hectares of rice fields under the 2022-23 water management plan.