Thailand must step out of its comfort zone and adapt its strategies to navigate the fluctuations and disruptions triggered by Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda, according to leading figures in the business sector and geopolitical experts.
Trump’s MAGA was built on key goals aimed at revitalizing the US economy, strengthening national security, and promoting American interests on the global stage. To that extent, Trump rooted his vision in nationalism, illiberalism, and de-globalization.
The second term of the Trump administration, which officially began on January 20 following the inauguration ceremony, would intensify fierce competition and confrontation with its major rival, China, former deputy prime minister and foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara said.
The current world is already riven with geopolitical competition, which intensifies economic rivalry, leading to higher costs and polarization in businesses and advanced technologies such as semiconductors, communication technology, and artificial intelligence, which are central to military and economic power, he said.
Trump is likely to be more assertive in the second term, as he has won the popular vote and enjoys backing in Congress where Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and the Senate. Making his intentions known, he has stacked his administration with mostly hawkish personnel and is ready to take a tough stance against China.
“Consequently, Trump would weaponize tariff, protectionism and prevention of accession to high technology to wage the so-called trade war with China,” Parnpree told a recent seminar at a Bangkok hotel.
Wasana Wongsurawat, an expert on Chinese affairs from Chulalongkorn University, played down the hype and said Trump’s second term might not be as scary as widely anticipated. Wasana said that in his first term in office from 2017-2021, he had not dramatically changed the world order. Many of his policies contradict one another and are hard to implement as per his wishes, she said.
“As Trump gives importance to China, he will need to pay more attention to Asia and look forward to making more allies in our region,” Wasana said in the same seminar. “And that is our chance to engage with the US to develop the relations.”
Not too optimistic
Thitima Chucherd, head of Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center believes that being overly optimistic might lead to complacency. From an economist's point of view, the second term of Trump is a real disruption for the global trade system, she said.
"Thailand will be on Trump's watchlist as a country having a trade surplus with the US, and therefore it is essential for us to develop plans for various scenarios and alternative strategies," she said.
From now on, Thailand would face unpredictable policy changes in all aspects including security, economics and technology, Parnpree said.
“The United States may review its relations with various countries, cancel negotiations, and renegotiate agreements to protect its interests. While the long-standing relationship with Thailand may remain unchanged, the economic adjustments required could pose challenges that are not particularly favorable to Thailand,” he said.
While Trump prioritized targeting China and US allies such as Canada and Mexico, Thailand could be regarded as an unfair trade partner because of the trade surplus. This would potentially become a second-tier target for the US to rearrange trade deals, according to Piti Srisangnam, executive director of the ASEAN Foundation.
“That would be good for us to have more time to prepare ourselves, but we need to be well prepared to deal with Trump anyway,” he said.
The US is Thailand's No. 1 export market, accounting for approximately 18% of total export value, amounting to US$55 billion in 2024. The US is Thailand's fourth-largest source of imports, accounting for about 6% of total import value worth $19.5 billion. Overall, Thailand has a trade surplus with the US of $35.4 billion, ranking 12th globally, according to the Commerce Ministry.
Approximately 30 groups of Thai products are at risk of being subjected to US tariffs. They include computers and components, cell phones, diodes-transistors, and solar cell PV (photovoltaic), due to which the US trade deficit with Thailand has increased over the past five years (2018–2023).
Thailand might be forced to buy more American products to reduce the trade surplus, according to Parnpree.
Another concern in the business sector is that Thailand could become an alternative market for Chinese goods to avoid the US tariff hike, said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.
The number of domestic industries in Thailand affected by the flooding of Chinese goods has increased over the past two years, he said.
“In 2022, 20 groups of domestic industry were affected, rising to 22 in 2023 and 25 in 2024. This year, the impact is expected to extend to 30 industries and is increasing,” Kriengkrai said.
Get out of the comfort zone
While Trump’s agenda and policy might create tension and pressure on the global geo-economic situation, such pressure would force all governments and the private sector to change and adjust to cope with the new situation and circumstances, Wisit Limluecha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said.
“It is a good opportunity for the government and the private sector to leave our comfort zone to make drastic changes and reform,” he said, warning: “Fluctuation and disruption would not allow us to sit still or do business as usual.”
Parnpree suggested that Thailand must be prepared to handle unexpected situations and maintain economic stability.
“Fortunately, Thailand benefits from a foundation of non-conflict with any nation. Therefore, it is essential to implement policies that diversify risks in both economic and security aspects,” he said.
The consolidation of neighboring ASEAN countries, middle powers, and rapidly growing nations is crucial for maintaining neutrality in conflicts, he said.
In practice, the Thai government needs to establish strong connections with high-level officials in the Trump administration for the sake of bilateral engagement, the former top Thai diplomat said.
Set up a war room
Kriengkrai urged the government, its relevant agencies, and the private sector to jointly set up a war room to have effective strategies and plans to deal with the Trump administration.
As Trump shifts the trade system from multilateral to bilateral negotiations, the government must prepare a strong lobbying mechanism to negotiate for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes, he said.
Meanwhile, Thailand needed to diversify its market and accelerate the conclusion of free trade agreements with many trade partners, notably the European Union, he said.
In the long run, Kriengkrai suggested structural reform toward innovation. The government seriously needs drastic legal reform to revamp thousands of laws and regulations to facilitate economic development.
“The government should also try a soft protectionism approach, instructing state agencies to buy more goods and services from domestic sources, notably small- and medium-sized enterprises,” he said, noting that the proportion should increase from 5 per cent at present to 15 per cent of total procurement.
