The government under Srettha Thavisin promised military reforms when it took office in 2023, but a year later it has nothing to show for it, hindered by a lack of political will, insufficient support from the armed forces, and various shortcomings.
Srettha became prime minister on August 22 last year, the same day former premier Thaksin Shinawatra returned from 15 years in self-imposed exile, highlighting complications and complexities within the Pheu Thai-led administration.
Less than a year later, on August 14, Srettha was unseated by a Constitutional Court ruling over his “unconstitutional” and “unethical” decision to appoint Pichit Chuenban, a tainted former lawyer of Thaksin, as a minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office.
The ruling Pheu Thai Party had managed to stitch together a coalition government last year after a compromise deal with the establishment elite and the military to end its alliance with the now-disbanded Move Forward Party, which had emerged as the single biggest party in the House of Representatives after the 2023 election.
With two pro-military parties — the United Thai Nation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) and Palang Pracharath — on board, the government has no freedom to implement any policies that could reduce the power and privilege of the armed forces.
The United Thai Nation Party is closely associated with former prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is now a member of the Privy Council, and the Palang Pracharath Party led by former deputy PM General Prawit Wongsuwan.
The two generals were the architects of a military-dominated regime after the 2014 coup.
Srettha chose the term “develop” rather than “reform” for the armed forces to realize the nation’s potential when he declared the government’s policies to Parliament in September last year.
The government vowed to adjust minor parts of the military recruitment system and hardware procurement, rather than undergoing drastic structural reform to ensure civilian command.
The appointment of Sutin Klunsang, a civilian, as defense minister did nothing to ensure civilian control as he was surrounded by Prayut’s men — General Somsak Roonsita as an advisor to the minister and General Nattapon Nakpanich as secretary to the minister. Both are former secretaries-general of the National Security Council.
Conscription continues
While the government declared to Parliament that it would change the military drafting system by transitioning from compulsory military service to a voluntary one, the 2024 recruitment remained dependent on conscription as usual.
A lot of young men expressed their disappointment about the policy implementation.
In April, the military recruited 85,000 young men for defense service this year. Some 70,000 of them were drafted by the draw of lots, and only 15,000 joined the armed forces voluntarily.
Thailand has enforced conscription for military recruitment since 1905. The Defense Ministry recently encouraged Thai young men to voluntarily join the armed forces in the 21st century, offering better allowances and reducing the service time from two years to one year for those who had graduated high school or hold a diploma and only six months for bachelor's degree graduates.
Since 1951, students who finished a three-year military education and training course were exempted from serving in the defense services.
Srettha’s government vowed in Parliament last year that it would improve and transform the training curriculum for students at the Reserves Training Center of the Territorial Defense Command into a more creative curriculum, but no improvement has been seen so far.
While the number of voluntary recruitment increased from 3,000 in 2021 to 6,500 in 2022 and 10,156 last year, conscription remained a major element in the Thai defense service.
Many inactive generals
While the government has vowed to reduce the number of high-ranking commissioned officers, the opposition accused Defense Minister Sutin of neglecting plans to reduce the number of generals, especially those in inactive positions as specialist advisors.
The military has been criticized for having too many generals without clear tasks. The estimated number of generals might be as high as 1,200.
The 2008 plan to reduce the number of generals from 752 to 384 by 2028 saw slow progress, with 433 still in service.
Additionally, there are 965 generals in various positions. The Cabinet recently introduced an incentive package for early retirement to speed up the plan.
A military source said the package was not attractive enough for the generals to retire, while many senior officers were not well informed about the early retirement scheme.
Untouchable ISOC
The government made it clear that it would never shut down the Internal Security Operation Command (ISOC) but would align its personnel with the country’s current and future roles and missions.
However, the structural adjustment by Srettha in March made no significant changes in the number of personnel as he simply scrapped a small civilian unit.
The ISOC currently retains more than 60,000 officials, mostly military. Its forward command, operating to maintain peace and order in the deep South, has 49,139 officials in service.
The ISOC requested a 7.2-billion-baht budget for fiscal year 2025. The organization planned to spend more than half of the requested budget, but officials testifying at the House of Representatives Committee of Military Affairs and a sub-committee on budget allocation recently failed to provide any details of the plan.
They simply said they planned to spend 4.3 billion baht for maintaining internal security, 36 million baht for development and humanitarian assistance, 31 million baht for environmental protection and preservation, 13 million baht for illegal migration management, 5.2 million baht for disaster relief, and 2.5 million baht for combating human trafficking.
All ISOC tasks, however, overlap with other agencies including police and the interior ministry.
Opaque procurement
The government vowed to modernize and ensure transparency in the procurement processes of agencies under the Ministry of Defense, considering current and future threat patterns and risks but has failed over the past year to resolve the controversy over the submarine project.
The 13.9-billion-baht submarine project, signed by the Prayut administration, faced a major setback as the manufacturer, China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co Ltd (CSOC), failed to procure the German MTU 396 engine for the submarine as stipulated in the contract.
As Srettha’s idea to swap the submarine for a frigate did not make headway, the Defense Ministry cut a deal with China to go ahead with the project with a Chinese engine.
Despite progress in recent meetings with Chinese counterparts in mid-May, acting Defense Minister Sutin has yet to submit the final proposal for Cabinet approval due to legal uncertainties.
During the May 14-15 meetings, Sutin’s advisor Somsak Roongsita and the Chinese delegation led by Shi Xionning agreed to use the Chinese CHD 620 engine instead of the German MTU 396, and offer 200 million baht in compensation to Thailand. The Chinese also offered free training simulators, a discount of 128 million baht, and training courses worth 70 million baht for the Navy.
However, this deal, requiring an amendment to the 2017 contract and a 1,200-day extension, still needs approval from the Thai Cabinet and the Chinese Central Military Committee.
Sutin faces a tough decision due to conflicting legal opinions. The Office of the Attorney-General sees the engine change as a fundamental contract alteration, which needs Cabinet approval, while the Council of State views it as a technical issue that the Navy can handle independently.
The sub-committee on budget allocation approved on August 9 the Air Force's request for a budget of 19.5 billion baht to acquire 16 fighter jets from unknown manufacturers.
With the US-made F-16 or Swedish-manufactured Gripen as choices, the government urged the enforcement of an offset policy to ensure economic linkage and technology transfer to benefit the domestic defense industry and the civilian population.
Nobody, however, has any idea how such an offset policy could be linked to weak domestic defense and aviation industries.
The Army has asked for a budget of 3.3 billion baht in fiscal year 2025 to purchase various hardware, including armored vehicles, drones, and anti-drone systems and helicopters but declined to unveil details of specifications, producers, and procurement procedures.
