Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is back in the media spotlight, rebuilding his status as a key player in Thai politics.
The former premier is due to complete his one-year sentence on August 22, after which he is expected to be even more open about his political manoeuvres given there will be no legal consequences.
Since his release on parole in February, Thaksin has spoken to the media, given interviews and even made political comments confirming his influence over the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Shortly after being paroled, he hosted Cambodia’s still-influential former strongman Hun Sen at his Bangkok mansion, Ban Chan Song La.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin called on him a few days later.
Thaksin also travelled across the country, stopping off at old strongholds to meet his political allies and supporters.
Thaksin, who turned 75 on Friday (July 26), is the coalition-leading Pheu Thai Party’s patriarch. Many even see him as its de-facto leader, though that post officially belongs to his 37-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn.
His latest political encounter was on July 20, when he was spotted playing golf with Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who doubles as interior minister and deputy prime minister.
The location was a resort in Nakhon Ratchasima’s Khao Yai owned by Anutin’s family.
Joining them was multibillionaire Sarath Ratanavadi, CEO of one of the country’s top electricity producers, Gulf Energy Development Plc, along with senior bureaucrats and other business leaders.
Several senior journalists speculated a deal was struck during the golf game to settle differences between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai, including the Public Health Ministry’s plan to recriminalise cannabis as a narcotic.
Bhumjaithai, a key coalition partner, is strongly opposed to the plan since it was behind the drive to decriminalise marijuana during the previous government’s tenure.
Thaksin, however, denied the existence of what the media is now calling the “Khao Yai Pact”, saying only that the golf game was meant to restore unity and settle differences the politicians may have.
Solidifying political power
Analysts, however, reckon that Thaksin is cementing his political power by leveraging his influence over the Pheu Thai-led government while “coming to an understanding” with other key players.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, believes the golf game was actually a meeting of three key groups – Pheu Thai led by Thaksin, the conservative “old power clique” represented by Anutin, and tycoons with political links such as Sarath.
“This meeting could have slipped by without notice if they wanted. The fact that it made headlines may mean they are up to something,” the analyst said.
He pointed out that Anutin’s party is not just the second largest in the ruling coalition, but is also believed to be closely linked to a majority of senators in the newly elected upper House.
The new Senate speaker and his two deputies, who won the vote with overwhelming majorities, reportedly have close ties with Bhumjaithai or its key figures.
Olarn also said that Thaksin is likely concerned over the growing uncertainty surrounding the future of Srettha’s government.
The Constitutional Court is scheduled to issue a verdict on August 14 on whether Srettha violated the charter by appointing former lawyer Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister despite his prison record.
The charter requires government ministers to have “evident integrity” and high ethical standards.
In 2008, Pichit was hit with a six-month term for trying to bribe Supreme Court officials.
He was representing Thaksin in a conflict of interest case at that time.
Olarn said the Khao Yai golf game may also have been a ploy by Thaksin to display his political might and frighten the thorn in his side, General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the coalition Palang Pracharath Party.
If the charter court decides to remove Srettha from office and a new coalition needs to be formed, it is widely expected that Prawit will challenge Pheu Thai for the PM’s post by allying with Bhumjaithai.
“Thaksin needs to keep the PM’s seat in Pheu Thai’s hands, even if that means taking the risk of backing his young daughter Paetongtarn as Srettha’s successor,” the analyst said.
He added that Pheu Thai’s popularity is in decline, with both Paetongtarn and Srettha also failing to impress voters.
Pheu Thai returned to power in last year’s election after its government was overthrown in the military coup of 2014.
Bhumjaithai kingmaker?
For Olarn, Bhumjaithai is a key factor in the current political equation. If the party decides to back Prawit as the next premier, the resulting alliance will have an edge over Pheu Thai.
The analyst said the Khao Yai game was meant to show that Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are still close.
In the 500-member House of Representatives, Bhumjaithai has 71 seats and Palang Pracharath 40.
Thaksin is worried that if the core opposition party, Move Forward, is disbanded in an upcoming court case, some of its MPs may decide to defect to other parties like Bhumjaithai and Palang Pracharath instead of joining the selected “substitution party”.
If Move Forward is dissolved, a future alliance between Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and their allies from the previous government, could leave Pheu Thai powerless on the opposition bench, the analyst said.
The Constitutional Court is scheduled to issue a verdict on August 7 over allegations that Move Forward violated the charter by undermining the monarchy with moves to amend the lese majeste law.
Olarn pointed out that shortly after the golf game, Srettha suggested that the Public Health Ministry regulate the use of marijuana instead of relisting it as a narcotic.
The analyst suspects this policy U-turn came in exchange for a promise from Bhumjaithai that it would support Pheu Thai’s controversial 10,000-baht digital handout scheme, which is expected to cost the state at least 450 billion baht.
Move for total control
Olarn said Thaksin does not need to wait until his sentence comes to an end on August 22 to make bold political moves, as he seems to already have significant influence over the government, the opposition and even the justice system.
The analyst said PM Srettha and Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin – both from Pheu Thai – had changed their stance on relisting marijuana soon after Thaksin played golf with Anutin.
Olarn also believes that core opposition party Move Forward could have done better at scrutinising the government if Thanathorn Jungrungruangkit did not have close ties with Thaksin.
Thanathorn is believed to retain influence over Move Forward after founding and leading its predecessor, Future Forward, which was dissolved in 2020.
Olarn also said that the fact that Thaksin served the first six months of his term in a comfortable suite at the Police General Hospital was an indicator of his influence over Thailand’s judiciary.
“Thaksin is the most influential player in Thai politics,” he said.
“After August, he will have true control – something that has been rare [for one person] over the past decade. Thaksin is a monster created by the old power clique, and from now, he will work as their protector.”
The analyst is convinced that Thaksin has set his sights on ruling the country from behind the scenes, much like his friend Hun Sen is believed to have done in Cambodia since his son, Hun Manet, took over as leader.
“Thaksin is a person who cannot lose. He wants to win in every game and is always looking for total control,” Olarn said.
By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk
