The House of Representatives is scheduled to elect a new prime minister after Srettha Thavisin was removed from office for violating constitutional ethics.
After just 11 months and 14 days in office, Srettha lost his post for appointing former lawyer Pichit Chuenban as PM’s Office minister.
A group of 40 senators filed a case against Srettha over his decision to appoint Pichit, who had spent six months in jail over a contempt of court charge.
The Constitutional Court ruled that Srettha had violated the charter’s requirement that ministers have “evident integrity” and high ethical standards.
His successor is likely to be one of the prime ministerial candidates put forward by the four major coalition parties – Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation – at last year’s general election.
What’s next?
The Cabinet has taken on a caretaker’s role, with first Deputy PM Phumtham Wechayachai becoming acting PM, as well as acting commerce minister.
The Cabinet currently has no power to launch new government projects, and the law does not allow an acting prime minister to dissolve the House of Representatives for a new election.
MPs are scheduled to meet on Friday (August 16) to name a new prime minister, but unlike after last year’s general election, senators will no longer take part in the vote to select a new national leader.
The winning candidate must receive majority support from the Lower House, or 247 votes from its 493 lawmakers.
Seven PM candidates are in the running: Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul from Bhumjaithai Party, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and General Prayut Chan-o-cha from the United Thai Nation Party, General Prawit Wongsuwan from Palang Pracharath Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the opposition’s Democrat Party.
Strengths and weaknesses
Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political science professor at Sukhothai Thammathirat University, argues that Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has the best chance of becoming prime minister. He cited Anutin’s strong political connections and likely support from various coalition parties.
However, the analyst pointed to challenges facing Anutin, who is now acting interior minister and acting deputy PM. His party is not the largest in the coalition, meaning he will have to rely heavily on its largest partner, Pheu Thai, to maintain his government’s stability in the long run.
Also, Bhumjaithai does not have a single MP in Bangkok. If history is any indication, that poses a problem for its future administration – governments led by parties with no MPs in the capital are often short-lived due to protests by Bangkok residents.
For Yuthaporn, Pheu Thai’s two remaining PM candidates – Chaikasem and party leader Paetongtarn – have a good chance of becoming the next head of government.
He reckons that former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is Paetongtarn’s father and Pheu Thai’s patriarch, is unlikely to let a coalition partner take the PM’s seat.
“Thaksin has great confidence and is a real fighter,” the analyst said, adding that the outcome would depend on Pheu Thai’s negotiations with other coalition partners.
Key coalition leaders gathered for talks at the Shinawatra mansion in Bangkok on Wednesday, just hours after the court verdict. Media reports said that Thaksin favoured Chaikasem, a 75-year-old former attorney general, over his daughter Paetongtarn for the PM’s job.
Yuthaporn believes that Thaksin does not want his daughter to become a prime minister at this time, because she is his “trump card” in the political game.
However, a meeting on Thursday morning saw Pheu Thai MPs resolve to nominate Paetongtarn due to worries over Chaikasem’s health problems.
Leaders of other coalition partners, including Anutin, had earlier said that their parties would vote for any candidate nominated by Pheu Thai; as of 5pm on Thursday, they had pledged full support for Paetongtarn.
As for other candidates, the analyst believes the chance of Palang Pracharath’s General Prawit Wongsuwan becoming PM is slim due to a lack of unity in his party.
United Thai Nation’s PM candidate, former PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha, would have to give up his post on the Privy Council if he wants to join the race.
Yuthaporn reckons the current political situation is “too complex” for Prayut to risk abandoning his position as royal adviser in exchange for a shot at the PM’s post.
Three key factors
The analyst pointed to three other factors that could affect the election of a new PM and the formation of a new coalition government.
First is the role of the 70-MP Bhumjaithai, the second largest party in the 10-party coalition of 312 MPs and the third-largest party in Parliament. Its support would significantly bolster the chance of the largest or second-largest party winning the PM’s seat and forming the next coalition.
Pheu Thai is the largest coalition partner with 141 MPs.
The People’s Party, successor to the recently disbanded opposition leader Move Forward, is also a key factor as it remains the largest party in the House with 143 MPs despite its executives being banned from politics for 10 years by the charter court on August 7.
Support from People’s Party MPs could influence the result of the upcoming PM vote, though the party’s reformist agenda runs counter to other parties in the race.
The third factor concerns questions over the unity of the Pheu Thai-led coalition. Palang Pracharath appears to be the biggest problem since the party’s leader Prawit and secretary-general Thamanat Prompow seem to be moving in separate directions.
Yuthaporn highlighted the possibility of the opposition’s Democrat Party replacing Palang Pracharath as a new coalition partner.
“I don’t think the current coalition will collapse. Most of the existing partners will remain united, but they may switch the roles of coalition leader and prime minister,” the analyst said.
He expects to see intense bargaining among parties involved, making it unlikely that a conclusion will be reached before Friday’s meeting.
“Though Pheu Thai appears to be looking for a quick result, it is not easy to strike a deal with other coalition partners in just one or two days,” he said, referring to discussions on matters like bargaining over ministerial seats.
Third PM to be removed by court
Srettha, who was a property tycoon before entering politics, is the fifth prime minister to be tried by the Constitutional Court since it was established in October 1997. Two of his predecessors were found guilty and removed, while two others were spared.
The two premiers ousted by the court were Samak Sundaravej and Yingluck Shinawatra – both of whom were considered Thaksin’s proxies.
Samak was Thaksin’s political ally, while Yingluck is his younger sister.
The two spared by the court were Thaksin and Prayut, who took power in 2014 after ousting a Pheu Thai-led government in a military coup.
All decisions of the court are final and not subject to appeal.
