The latest military clash at the Chong Bok border pass was not merely a result of lingering territorial disputes, but was triggered by Thailand’s deepening political divisions and Cambodia’s assertive strategic posture, according to analysts.
A brief military clash happened at predawn on May 28 in the disputed area of Hill 496 adjacent to Chong Bok in Nam Yuen district of Ubon Ratchathani province.
While the Thai authorities tried to play down tensions, initially saying there was no casualty, Cambodia said one of its soldiers, Sgt Suan Roan, 48, was killed during the fight, and played up his death and funeral to boost moral support in the country.
Such a tactical conflict was supposed to end when Thai army chief Pana Claewplodtook met with his Cambodian counterpart, Mao Sophan, at the Chong Chom border checkpoint on May 29.
The meeting resulted in a three-point solution to position their respective troops appropriately to reduce confrontation—basically 200 meters from the clash site; address the boundary disputes through the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) which will convene in Phnom Penh on June 14; and maintain good bilateral relations and exercise patience and restraint.
In a Facebook post a day later, Cambodia’s former prime minister Hun Sen condemned Thai nationalists for provoking the conflict and tensions with Cambodia.
Hun Sen, who is now the president of the Senate, went on to say that Cambodia would never withdraw its troops from the disputed areas, which were deemed its territory.
Chong Bok was situated in the border conjunction area of Thailand-Laos-Cambodia, known as the Emerald Triangle or Mom Bei region in Khmer.
According to Hun Sen, Cambodian troops have been stationed in the area since before the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement.
The situation is heating up as Prime Minister Hun Manet posted on Facebook on June 1 that his government was preparing to take the boundary dispute in the Emerald Triangle, the Hindu sanctuary of Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch, and Ta Krabei to be settled by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
“I would like to reiterate that although Cambodia tries to resolve the border peacefully according to technical mechanisms and international laws, Cambodia retains the right to defend its territory by all means including the use of armed force in case of an attempt to invade Cambodia's territory by using military force,” said Hun Manet, who is the eldest son of Hun Sen.
Domestic rift
Tensions in Thailand-Cambodia relations did not materialise out of the blue. Right-wing nationalists have fired salvos since last year to discredit the Pheu Thai Party-led government over the maritime deals in the overlapping claims areas (OCA).
They threatened to call street protests to oust the government if it resumed negotiations on the OCA that could lead to the loss of Koh Kut island to Cambodia.
From the OCA to Koh Kut, Thai nationalist groups have exploited social media to inflame border tensions with Cambodia, following a verbal altercation between Thai and Cambodian soldiers at the Ta Moan Thom Hindu sanctuary in Surin Province in February, and a fire incident at the Trimuk Pavilion near the border junction in Ubon Ratchathani province in March.
Weeks before the May 28 clash, pictures in social media showed trenches were dug in the area adjacent to Chok Bok border pass, where the demarcation of land boundary has not yet been completed.
These posts were rapidly amplified by nationalist commentators and picked up by several mainstream media outlets, sparking renewed calls for the Thai government and military to take a firmer stance against what was perceived as territorial encroachment.
Right-wing narratives accused the government, particularly Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, of adopting a lenient policy toward Cambodia.
The Shinawatra factor
Meanwhile, the role of the military — notably Commander of the 2nd Army Region Boonsin Padklang — was highlighted by local media and politicians, undermining the leadership of the civilian government.
Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut praised the military for performing its duty professionally, while blaming Paetongtarn’s government for having remained conspicuously silent and underestimated the situation.
“To make matters worse, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of Paetongtarn and a close friend of Hun Sen, has downplayed the issue, suggesting that it could be resolved through his personal ties with the Cambodian leadership,” he posted on Facebook.
Phumtham rushed to dismiss a rumor that he planned to sideline 2nd Army Region Commander Boonsin for suggesting the government close the border checkpoint to retaliate against Cambodia.
“All of this [rumor] is an example of incitement meant to sow distrust in the government. I urge everyone to refrain from such actions, as they affect Thailand’s sovereignty and independence. We are treading carefully to avoid war, out of concern for the people standing on the front lines,” he told reporters.
Paradon Patthanathabutr, former secretary-general of the National Security Council, urged the government to demonstrate strong leadership of the military in responding to Cambodia's provocation.
“Of course, we don’t want war but the government and the military must unite to show our strength,” he said.
Furthermore, disunity within the coalition government notably the conflicts and competitions between the ruling Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties weakened its capacity to lead and deal with Cambodia, he said.
Internationalized conflict
Paradon said the government in Phnom Penh had played up the border clash with the intention of taking the issue to an international forum, threatening to bring the case to the ICJ, which ruled in favor of Cambodia in the Preah Vihear temple case in 1962 and 2013.
The Cambodian leadership, notably PM Hun Manet, who took the helm from his father, needed to exploit the conflict with Thailand to buttress his credentials as a leader and enhance his domestic popularity, he said.
Cambodia’s opposition leader in exile Sam Raisy posted in his Facebook on June 3, encouraging Hun Manet’s government to take all disputed areas including the sandstone Hindu sanctuary and the Emerald Triangle, Koh Kut and other sea territory to the ICJ to “to ensure he walked the talk”.
Cambodia gets firepower boost from China
Cambodia enjoys strong military support from China, which has helped upgrade the Ream naval base, holds the Golden Dragon joint exercises, as well as ensures sufficient supply of hardware.
Cambodia likely has more confidence in its fire power and military strength against superior neighboring Thailand, according to security sources.
Cambodia’s military is equipped with various types of multiple rocket launchers and air defense systems. The PHL-03 multiple rocket launcher, which fires 300mm rockets, has a range of 70–130 kilometers, the sources said and added that other systems, such as the Type 90B, RM-70, and BM-21 with a shorter range of 20–40 kilometers, are available.
For air defense, Cambodia possesses the KS-1C surface-to-air missile system with a range of 70 kilometers. This system is based on China’s HQ-12 and is guided by the H-200 radar, capable of engaging targets at altitudes up to 25 kilometers.
It is currently considered the most advanced air defense system in the Cambodian armed forces, with the capability to intercept drones and various types of aircraft, they said.
China might not be directly involved in the conflict between the two neighbors, but would gain strategic benefit as Thailand would not interfere with many on-going projects including the naval base and Funan Techo Canal, they said.
