Analysts predict lese majeste cases will almost certainly be excluded from the amnesty bill when it is debated in Parliament later this month.
They foresee only a slim chance of lawmakers extending amnesty coverage to these “sensitive cases”, despite longstanding pressure from civil society groups and the opposition-leading People’s Party.
The House of Representatives is expected to deliberate the four amnesty bills submitted for debate soon after Parliament reconvenes next Thursday (December 12).
The ruling Pheu Thai Party will also submit a fifth amnesty bill.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok's Institute, said that any amnesty draft that excludes defendants charged with insulting the monarchy or former prime ministers accused of corruption has a good chance of passing.
These two issues will be the deciding factor in Parliament’s deliberation of the bills, he added.
Stithorn expects that bills proposing pardons for protesters charged under Article 112 of the Criminal Code, aka the lese majeste law, will ignite fierce debate.
Likewise, any attempt to pardon former premiers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra would be met with strong opposition.
He sees a greater likelihood of protest leaders being covered by amnesty if their offences are not deemed serious.
Over 1,500 cases in two decades
According to Court of Justice records, over 1,500 cases under Articles 107 to 112 of the Criminal Code – crimes against the monarchy – reached trial across the country in the 20 years from 2003 to 2023.
These were among more than 75,000 cases stemming from political conflict over the past two decades, including many involving protesters who either defied the emergency decree or public assembly prohibitions.
Monarchy-related trials rose from 100 cases per year between 2003 and 2006 to over 1,500 in 2010.
The number jumped to 39,236 in 2020, 23,777 in 2021, and 10,243 in 2022, before dropping to 220 last year.
Between July 2020 and April this year, at least 1,954 people were charged in 1,295 criminal cases for their participation in street protests or expression of political opinions, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.
Of those, 272 people were charged with violating Article 112.
Sensitive cases to be weeded out
Stithorn said the Lower House was likely to support amnesty bills in the first reading, but the two contentious offences – lese majeste and corruption – would be removed from the final draft.
The People’s Party (PP) has backed the inclusion of lese majeste in the new amnesty law, while Pheu Thai wants former prime ministers, including Thaksin and Yingluck, to be covered.
Stithorn said the legislation would need support from lawmakers of other major parties in the House, namely Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation.
The analyst predicted that after the amnesty bill passes its first reading, the vetting committee would weed out any controversial offences.
The bill covering lese majeste would be struck down first, while any clauses implying a pardon for Thaksin and Yingluck would be removed by the vetting committee.
Stithorn said both the PP and Pheu Thai would find it extremely difficult to get their amnesty bills through Parliament.
“It’s a tough job for the Orange party [PP] to get Article 112 cases included. And Pheu Thai are asking for trouble if they want to whitewash [corruption offences].
Sondhi and his supporters are poised to strike,” he said, referring to media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul’s threat to mobilise street protests “for the last time” against a “Shinawatra administration” led by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn.
Amnesty bill with ‘hidden motive’
The analyst suspects the hidden reason behind Pheu Thai’s amnesty bill is to whitewash Thaksin of corruption so he can return to power while allowing
Yingluck to return to Thailand without facing jail time for her government’s corruption-tainted rice scheme.
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, said an amnesty bill will have a better chance of passing if it does not cover lese majeste.
However, any legislation deemed to benefit certain groups – particularly the Shinawatra family – will raise eyebrows and heap political pressure on the ruling Pheu Thai Party, he added.
“There are reports that Yingluck will return to Thailand next April. If she benefits from this law, public suspicion will surround Pheu Thai.
The party promised an amnesty for Article 112 cases during its [2023] election campaign, but then just dropped it,” Titipol said.
The analyst believes that Pheu Thai will boldly push ahead for an amnesty law that benefits its political strategy while leaving out Article 112 cases.
The siblings, Thaksin and Yingluck, were both sentenced to imprisonment in absentia for cases stemming from their tenures as prime minister.
Thaksin, who is regarded as Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, was handed eight years in jail for corruption, but his term was reduced to one year by a royal pardon following his return to Thailand in August last year.
He is now a free man after spending six months in the Police General Hospital and being included in a royal pardon granted to inmates on HM the King’s birthday on July 28.
Yingluck was sentenced to five years in prison for negligence in mismanaging her government’s rice-pledging scheme.
She has lived in self-imposed exile overseas since fleeing the country in August 2017.
4 bills submitted, 5th coming
Four amnesty bills have been proposed separately for parliamentary deliberation. Three were drafted by political parties, namely Move Forward (PP’s previous incarnation), United Thai Nation, and Thai Teachers for People.
The fourth was put forward by the People’s Amnesty Network (PAN), a coalition of civil groups and activists.
The proposed draft laws comprise between nine and 14 articles and cover offences committed during all political conflicts since 2005.
Only the PAN bill clearly includes an amnesty for lese majeste offences. The amnesty laws proposed by the United Thai Nation and Thai Teachers for People do not cover lese majeste offenders or those convicted of corruption.
The PAN bill covers a variety of offences committed since the September 2006 coup, including lese majeste, suspects tried in military courts, and violations of the State of Emergency and Referendum Act under the 2017 Constitution.
The Move Forward bill does not mention lese majeste, although the party has campaigned for amendment of Article 112.
The bills proposed by Move Forward and the civil network do not allow amnesty for state officials involved in crackdowns on protesters, or those who ousted a government or the Constitution.
Pheu Thai is poised to propose a fifth amnesty bill. Its legal expert Chusak Sirinil, who is also the party’s deputy leader and PM’s Office minister, says that most Pheu Thai MPs support submitting an amnesty bill that excludes Article 112 offences.
