23 May 2024

KKP Research, of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, has predicted that the latest COVID-19 outbreak will be longer than expected, due to the Delta variant, the slow imposition of lockdown measures and slow roll out of mass vaccinations, and that semi-lockdown measures will have to be in place for at least three months to ease the situation. 

If the restrictive measures are kept in place for three months, this year’s GDP growth will drop to 0.5%, from the initial forecast of 1.5%. Although exports are improving, it is not enough to cushion the overall effects on this year’s economy and it is not expected that the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.

If there is a prolonged partial lockdown, the manufacturing and export sectors, which are the only hope for the country’s economy, will also be affected, according to the thinktank.

KKP Research also suggested that the government improve their policies and impose measures to control the spread, such as by communicating transparently with the public regarding the COVID-19 situation, imposing restrictive measures with a plan for the future, increasing the efficiency and efficacy of COVID-19 screening, investigation and treatment, using mRNA vaccines to support the development of herd immunity and preparing suitable relief measures.